2019 MINOR LEAGUE BABS Ratings
What is the difference between Ty France and Austin Dean? Looking only at their 2019 major league stats, one might conclude, “not a whole lot.”
Player AB HR SB AVG --------- ------ -- -- ---- Ty France 184 7 0 .234 Austin Dean 178 6 0 .225
BABS viewed their 2019 performances likewise, awarding them identical ratings of… well, nothing. No assets, no liabilities. They shared that particular asset group with MLB veterans like Adam Jones, Dexter Fowler and, sadly, Albert Pujols – the “don’t help you, don’t hurt you” types.
But despite both being mid-20s corner-infielders, there is at least a little difference between France and Dean. Their 2019 minor league performances bear that out:
Minors MLE Player AB HR SB AVG HR SB AVG --------- ------ -- -- ---- -- -- ---- Ty France 296 27 1 .399 17 1 .322 Austin Dean 285 18 4 .337 14 3 .282
Of course, minor league performance is not the same as major league performance, so we like to convert those minors numbers into major league equivalent stats (MLEs), which account for level of play, park factors and the like. Using MLEs, BABS can figure out an appropriate rating to attach to these performances.
BABS rated Ty France’s minor league performance as (PW,A+), a player in the same asset group as 2019 major leaguers Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon.
BABS rated Austin Dean as (PW,a), a player in the same asset group as 2019 major leaguers Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas.
These are not necessarily indicators of future potential, just snapshots of what France and Dean did in the minors. Their 2020 expectations take these data points into account, as well as any other relevant information. In tandem with their respective Liability ratings, we get a fuller picture. Their preliminary BABS ratings for 2020:
Player PT Assets Liab -------------- -- ------ -------- Ty France a EX Austin Dean P a EX,Nw
Wow. These look completely different from their minor league performances. In fact, these look more like the middling skills posted in their limited MLB exposure last year. If nothing else, where the heck did the power go?
There is an underlying theme that you are going to see frequently during the 2020 draft season, especially at the Major League level. Given the power explosion in 2019 – and the likelihood that it will continue – our point of reference is going to have to change. Players who poke 20-25 bombs no longer have “moderate power”; they are more accurately described as “barely average.” Once we dive into the BABS ratings for major leaguers, this will become a common refrain.
As such, when MLEs convert 27 and 18 home run output to 17 and 14, respectively, we’re no longer looking at major power sources.
Despite France and Dean ending up in the pedestrian (a) asset group, that underlying skill set is shared with established MLBers like Jorge Polanco, Didi Gregorius and Eric Hosmer. However, given that the France/Dean rating is driven by minimal playing time, it’s tough to put too much credence into it.
In general, BABS considers all low skilled, low-playing time players as equally replaceable. That’s why attaching BABS ratings to minor league numbers is one way to provide some more color. The France/Dean duo likely resides in an asset group somewhere between (a) and the lofty (PW) groups they displayed in the minors. It’s a huge range; the uncertainty is the reality.
Here are files with BABS ratings for nearly all 2019 Double-A and Triple-A players. Each file lists the players both alphabetically as well as sorted by asset groups.
For players expected to get AB/IP in 2020, BABS incorporates some of these MLEs as part of the process of constructing the major league ratings. But it’s helpful to see the seeds of where it started, especially for players with little MLB experience.