2023 Asset Group Analysis – (p,AV)

 (Photo by John McCreary/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. But that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

ADP R$ BATTER Pos Lg Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk- Rg Risk
10 $ 35 Soto,Juan O N SDP F p AV * Rg+ 0
36 $ 22 Arenado,Nolan 3 N STL F p AV 0
48 $ 20 Robert,Luis O A CWS F p AV INJ e 7.00
62 $ 17 Rutschman,Adley CD A BAL F p AV * Rg+ EX 2.00
76 $ 15 Bregman,Alex 3 A HOU F p AV * 0
93 $ 13 Pasquantino,Vinnie 1D A KCR F p AV EX 2.00
97 $ 13 Abreu,Jose 1D A HOU F p AV Nw Ag 0.50
207 $5 Marte,Ketel 2D N ARZ F p AV Rg+ inj- 1.00
276 $2 Turner,Justin 3D A BOS F p AV Nw Ag 0.50
277 $2 Winker,Jesse O N MLW F p AV * Rg+ INJ Nw 3.25

How much would you bid for Juan Soto or Nolan Arenado? 

A lot.

Yes, we all would. But how much would you bid to find out if a batter with similar skills could produce stats in the neighborhood of Soto/Arenado?

A little less, but still a good amount.

Indeed. But what if I told you the approximate skills are often much cheaper? As in: up to hundreds of picks cheaper?

Now I know you’re lying…Source??

I’ll never burn a source (it’s BABS). She makes a living identifying similarly skilled players and shows her work on an easy to read balance sheet. There is potential profit all up and down a draft, and skills like (p,AV) present opportunities to leverage the market. 

Take Jose Abreu and Vinnie Pasquantino. If 1B is a position of need around pick 90, Abreu and Pasquantino are prime options. These are middle of the order bats with pop and batting effectiveness. Maybe not BIG pop but run producers who can prop up the batting average are valuable pieces, especially in deep leagues. If the BA foundation is strong enough, you can always chase big power later on. 

Alex Bregman is being selected about 40 picks later than Arenado. He possesses the same assets (p,AV). In 2022, Bregman had his best season since the happyball days of 2018/19. BABS has always maintained that Bregman’s power wasn’t of the 40 HR variety, and 2022 seemed to confirm that suspicion. Still, Alex owns the requisite skills to produce in four categories, making him a fine selection near pick 75. 

Some 240 picks after Arenado is another third baseman with kindred assets. Justin Turner keeps getting older…and keeps on hitting. He won’t be mistaken for Nolan anytime soon, but does it really matter if you’re paying a pittance? He’s an airball revolutionary, and that could play very well in Boston once he recovers from spring’s beanball. 

Few outfielders come with this asset mix, but they are notable. Luis Robert’s annual trips to the IL have dulled some of his shine, but drafters still believe (ADP 48). He’s risky, but BABS hasn’t checked out completely yet. Jesse Winker brings his stick back to the NL Central in 2023, and with it a move from Seattle (depressed LHB HR by 17% in 2022) to Milwaukee (advantageous by 32% for LHB HR in 2022). The only NL ballpark with a greater advantage to LHB was Winker’s old home in Cincinnati. Jesse seems to be a victim of recency bias, which presents a great buying opportunity. 

Aside from Robert and Winker, most bats with the (p,AV) asset mix are low-risk. Adley Rutschman (pictured) and Pasquantino are still young, but the rest of the lot are veterans with owned skills. 

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.