2023 Best Ball Game Strategy
(Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire)
by Greg Fishwick
Note: This article is designed to be read second in a series, preceded by “BABS Points Game Strategies for 2023” and followed by “Using BABS in Gladiator Roto and Guillotine Points Leagues.” To minimize repetition, we invite readers to familiarize themselves with the pieces in order.
Are You Ready for Some Best Ball?
The “Best Ball” terminology comes from “Scramble” golf tournaments, in which everyone in a foursome hits a drive, then each player takes their next shot from where the “best ball” of the tee shots landed. They all take their approach shots from the best ball among their fairway drives, and so on. In fantasy baseball, Best Ball is a form of points scoring in which the site provider scores your best possible lineup from the performances of all players on your roster in each scoring period.
Why try it?
The appeal of Best Ball leagues is a reduced workload without losing the excitement of a pennant chase. Imagine not worrying about two-start pitchers, platoon players, day-to-day injuries, Coors Field, or teams with more games that week. After the scoring period ends, the site’s program maximizes your points for you—what could be easier? Whether you’ve tried it and want to improve or you’re just learning, this overview and strategy tips will help you succeed in the increasingly-popular Best Ball competitions.
Draft is destiny, points drive strategy
Best Ball shifts the balance between draft day and in-season management from relatively equal to extremely reliant on drafting. With no lineup changes, no trades, and few FAABs, your Best Ball draft determines your destiny in contest leagues. Scoring providers can usually adjust so that home league rules for FAAB and trades remain intact. If you enjoy drafting more than managing, are tired of daily transactions and/or weekly FAABs, or just want to learn something different, Best Ball is worth a try.
Fortunately, BABS’ long-term, large-sample emphasis is best suited to drafting, so BABS and Best Ball are a match made in heaven. But as detailed in “BABS Points Game Strategies for 2023,” Best Ball points drafts are very different from roto category drafts. Draft preparation depends upon applying deep analysis and understanding of the point system. The NFBC scoring system for its several Best Ball contests below demonstrates how points drive strategy. And you can use the Filters button to sort NFBC ADP for those two contests in recent weeks to avoid the pitfalls of applying generic ADPs to points league games.
HITTING PITCHING
Type For Every Points Type For Every Points
At Bats 1 -1 Innings Pitched 1 3
Hits 1 4 Hits Allowed 1 -1
Runs 1 2 Earned Runs 1 -2
Home Runs 1 6 Walks Issued 1 -1
Runs Batted In 1 2 Strikeouts 1 1
Stolen Bases 1 5 Wins 1 6
Saves 1 8
Maximize multi-position eligibility and boost catchers
NFBC Best Ball scoring lineups are the traditional nine pitchers and 14 hitters (two catchers), plus a 23-man bench. Multi-position players are essential because they increase the combinations available to optimize your lineup. For instance, if you have three 1B and three 3B, and they outperform all eight of your OFs, you will get the sixth and seventh OFs instead of the last two CIs with more points—unless two of those CI are also OF-eligible.
Multi-position players also help avoid negative points. If there are enough multi-position players and pitchers on your roster, your low or negative scores can be left off. The 2023 Baseball Forecaster lists all multi-position players on page 274. And remember that your top two catchers will be scored each week. Don’t neglect them, and plan for their injury risk. Roster at least two top-tier and three-to-four mid-tier catchers.
Accentuate the positive
In the previous piece, “BABS Points Game Strategies for 2023,” we showed how BABS can screen for hitters and pitchers to build a foundation of positive points in whatever system you’re using. To continue here with the NFBC Best Ball point system example, the most obvious advantage is in hitting, and it’s HRs. It may look like SB and HR are nearly equal in value. But HRs are also Hits, Runs, and RBI—a net 13-points for each solo shot. For comparison, a QS with a SO/IP and a BB/IP or Hit/IP nets 12 points without a Win. Your hitters should have Power (P+/PW/p) and Batting Effectiveness (A+/AV/a) assets. Hitters also get 4 points for every hit, and every hit increases the chance for RBIs, so we want the most effective batters available in our first few rounds. That minimizes the negative points for unproductive ABs deducting a point, too. And the OBP * is a bonus, since every time on base increases the chance of scoring a Run. Those five-point SBs are attractive, but Speed is still the least important asset in this game.
Note the negative
This point system features nine ways to add points: five from hitting and four from pitching; and four ways to subtract points: three from pitching and one from hitting. That makes the relative value of hitters and pitchers different from roto category leagues. Two ways pitchers can add points seem like big-ticket items, with Wins worth 6 and Saves worth 8. We know it’s folly to chase either of them, but well-used middle relievers on good teams can get both—sometimes more than one per week. SPs can get only Wins—almost always less than one per week. To compensate, SPs get more IP and SO.
When your Best Ball opponents have positive points and you have negative points, it widens the points gap well beyond standings points in categories. To avoid one or more of your nine “highest-scoring” pitchers subtracting points, don’t roster pitchers without at least an “e” asset in Effectiveness and a “k” asset in Strike Outs. Target high-SO SP and RP to double-dip, earning a point for a strikeout and a point for 1/3 of an inning off of one victim.
Limit liability incorporation
Most negative points in Best Ball come from pitchers. It’s the kiss of death to have any of your top nine pitchers contribute negative numbers in any week. Luckily, limiting liabilities is a BABS specialty. She’s the only one identifying Skills Liabilities and quantifying Risk Cost. BABS’ ratings reveal the following Skills Liabilities for some fairly popular players, crossing them off Best Ball target lists:
HITTERS PITCHERS Tim Anderson (-P) Sean Manaea (-E) Steven Kwan (-P) Mike Clevinger (-E) Nico Hoerner (-P) Corey Kluber (-E) Jeff McNeil (-P) Cole Irvin (-EK) Matt Chapman (-A) Marco Gonzales (-EK) Ramon Laureano (-A) Dean Kremer (-EK)
BABS’ foundational finds
Set your priorities for the draft. Top priority is (P+/PW, A+/AV), adding in (S+/SB) when possible. Also define your minimums, which are the (p,a) Asset Group. Further, avoid all batters with Power (|-P) or Batting Effectiveness Liabilities (|-A), because they will either not add to HR totals or take you backwards with too many ABs and too few hits. Better to move from Full-timers to Mid-timers, pick up any remaining (s,a) hitters, and/or roster strong middle relievers instead. Finally, remember to minimize your Risk Costs; the NFBC contests typically have only two FAABs the entire season.
Shohei Ohtani (P+,a,*), pictured, is almost always the first pick in Best Ball, because each week you get either his best hitting or best pitching (E+,K+) scores. There are nine other (P+) hitters, but Max Chapman has a (|-A) liability, so he drops down the list. With no Risk Cost and a Full-time projection, your top two remaining targets are Mookie Betts (P+,s,AV) and Yordan Alvarez (P+,A+,*), though the same hand that bothered him last season is holding him back in spring training.
Aaron Judge (P+,AV,*) would follow before we consider those with Risk Costs. Fernando Tatis (P+,S+,AV|INJ,-$5.00) and Mike Trout (P+,AV,*|inj-,-$3.00) top that list. But what if we’re wary of that early-round/top salary Risk Cost? Two of BABS’s remaining three Full-time (P+) hitters are stealth targets with Risk Costs of zero, and the third is only dinged a dollar: Max Muncy (P+,a,*,Rg+|inj-,-$1) has the dollar ding, and also has dual eligibility at 2B and 3B. Kyle Schwarber (P+,a,*) should still be there for your first pick, and Eugenio Suarez (P+,*) would be a sneaky pick much later.
Continue from there with the (PW,AV) and (PW,a) Asset Groups, adding in any Speed Assets you can find while minimizing Risk Costs and searching for Full-timers, then Mid-timers, and screening out Skills Liabilities in Pw and Av. The (PW,a) and (p,AV) Asset Group profiles analyses in the current update yield even more examples.
BABS still has plenty of options left for you when you enter the pitching market in Round 4 or 5. To get those three-point IP, look for Full-time Kevin Gausman (ER,K+), Yu Darvish (ER,KK), Shane Bieber (ER,KK), Max Fried (E+,k), Julio Urias (ER,k), Framber Valdez (ER,k), Dylan Cease (e,K+), Logan Gilbert (e,k), and Kyle Wright (e,k). Mid-time stalwarts with no more than $1.00 in Risk Cost who could still be available are Carlos Rodon (ER,K+), Luis Castillo (ER,KK),s Joe Musgrove (ER,KK)—especially with his fractured toe.
Otherwise, it’s on to Mid-timers in the (E+,KK), (ER,K+), (ER,KK), (ER,k), (e,KK), and (e,k) Asset Groups, respectively. Screening out skills liabilities and minimizing Risk Costs still leaves several SP targets who may be available before targeting middle relievers with a chance at Wins and/or Saves. Some strong Mid-time options with no more than $1.00 in Risk Cost who still may be available later are Clayton Kershaw (E+,KK),Christian Javier (ER,K+), Blake Snell (ER,K+), Zac Gallen (ER,KK), Justin Verlander (ER,KK), Pablo Lopez (ER,KK) Webb (ER,k), George Kirby (ER,k), Triston McKenzie (e,KK), Nestor Cortez (e,KK) Luis H. Garcia (e,KK), Lucas Giolito (e,KK), Charlie Morton (e,KK), Jordan Montgomery (ER,k), Japanese import Kodai Senga (e,KK), and Colorado export Jon Gray (e,KK).
Best of luck in your Best Ball leagues, though you may not need luck if you follow BABS’s advice.