2023 Asset Group Analysis – (e,KK)
(Photo by Ken Murray/icon Sportswire)
by Curt Brooks
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. But that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Lg | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | Risk | ||
| 93 | $ 13 | McKenzie,Triston | SP | A | CLE | M | e | KK | Rg- | 0.50 | |||||||||||
| 119 | $ 11 | Cortes,Nestor | SP | A | NYY | M | e | KK | inj- | Rg- | 1.50 | ||||||||||
| 139 | $9 | Lynn,Lance | SP | A | CWS | M | e | KK | INJ | Ag | 3.25 | ||||||||||
| 147 | $9 | Ryan,Joe | SP | A | MIN | M | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 150 | $8 | Luzardo,Jesus | SP | N | MIA | M | e | KK | INJ | e | 4.00 | ||||||||||
| 154 | $8 | Giolito,Lucas | SP | A | CWS | M | e | KK | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 162 | $8 | Garcia,Luis H. | SP | A | HOU | M | e | KK | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 172 | $7 | Morton,Charlie | SP | N | ATL | M | e | KK | Ag | 0.25 | |||||||||||
| 173 | $7 | Gonsolin,Tony | SP | N | LAD | M | e | KK | inj- | e | Rg- | 2.50 | |||||||||
| 177 | $7 | Springs,Jeffrey | SP | A | TBR | M | e | KK | Rg- | 0.50 | |||||||||||
| 194 | $6 | Senga,Kodai | SP | N | NYM | M | e | KK | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||||
| 195 | $6 | Rodriguez,Grayson | SP | A | BAL | P | e | KK | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||||
| 197 | $6 | Gray,Jon | SP | A | TEX | M | e | KK | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 205 | $5 | McCullers,Lance | SP | A | HOU | M | e | KK | INJ | Rg- | 3.50 | ||||||||||
| 216 | $5 | Detmers,Reid | SP | A | LAA | M | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 216 | $5 | Sandoval,Patrick | SP | A | LAA | M | e | KK | Rg- | 0.50 | |||||||||||
| 221 | $5 | Cabrera,Edward | SP | N | MIA | P | e | KK | INJ | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||||
| 226 | $4 | Flaherty,Jack | SP | N | STL | M | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 247 | $4 | Rogers,Trevor | SP | N | MIA | M | e | KK | INJ | e | 4.00 | ||||||||||
| 297 | $2 | Whitlock,Garrett | SP | A | BOS | M | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 319 | $1 | Carrasco,Carlos | SP | N | NYM | M | e | KK | inj- | Ag | 1.25 | ||||||||||
| 382 | $0 | Maeda,Kenta | SP | A | MIN | P | e | KK | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 445 | $ (1) | Houck,Tanner | rp | A | BOS | P | e | KK | INJ | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||||
| 494 | $ (2) | Peterson,David | SP | N | NYM | P | e | KK | e | 1.00 | |||||||||||
| 531 | $ (3) | Skubal,Tarik | SP | A | DET | P | e | KK | INJ+ | e | 6.00 | ||||||||||
| 577 | $ (4) | Anderson,Ian | SP | N | ATL | P | e | KK | e | 1.00 |
In a group characterized by significant strikeout ability and moderate pitching effectiveness, there are no full-timers (180-plus IP) here.
The marketplace leaders, in Rounds 7-8, are a pair of pitchers coming off breakout seasons — Triston McKenzie and Nestor Cortes — and likely to regress. If you wait on these skills until Rounds 9-10, there are several more options, but most are riskier. Lance Lynn spent nearly 100 days on the IL over the past two years; Jesus Luzardo over 100 days. Joe Ryan and Lucas Giolito might be better options here. Giolito took quite a large step back last year after three very solid years from 2019-2021. While there likely will be some positive regression, however, it was not enough to register on BABS’ (Rg+) radar.
Luis Garcia in Round 11 looks like a low risk pick. Once you hit Round 12, it becomes a mixed bag. Charlie Morton is looking to stave off Father Time for one more season, but other than the age risk, carries a clean slate on the liability side. Jeffrey Springs can be had for the about the same price as but does carry slightly higher risk score due to a negative regression warning. Tony Gonsolin is even higher risk.
Rookies Kodai Senga and Grayson Rodriguez are two options whose only liabilities are a lack of MLB experience. Jon Gray and Lance McCullers (pictured) add some injury risk. There is a nice pocket right at ADP 216 with a pair of lower risk options — Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval. Grabbing pitchers like these in Round 15 offers nice profit over taking chances on the earlier picks who come with baggage.
From here, nearly every (e,KK) arm brings major injury concerns. However, there are two interesting names lurking outside the draftable universe. David Peterson still owns a minor experience liability, but with a trio of 36-plus year-olds at the front of the Mets rotation, he might find an opportunity. Ian Anderson looked horrible last season, but is only a year removed from a 3.50ish ERA. He’s still only 25; he could still figure it out.
NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.