2023 Mailbag – March 9

Do you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone? Submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line. We’ll select the best ones to respond to in each of the four Game Plan installments.

Is Mookie Betts worth $45. Andrew Heaney $7?

The short answer: Yes, though it depends upon your league.

The long answer: If you believe that any anchor player could be worth $45 (I do), then here is the case for Betts:

He’s earned $40+ three times in eight full-time seasons.
He’s hit 30+ HR three times in eight full-time seasons, including 35 last year.
While he hasn’t stolen 20+ bases since 2018, he had an 86% success rate last year and could be given more of a green light to take advantage of the new MLB rules.
He continues to make hard contact and his BA has underperformed his expected BA the past two years.
Per BABS: Triple assets, no risk cost

The case for a $7 Andrew Heaney:

Solid skills metrics backed up his 3.10/1.09 performance in 2022.
But it was in only 73 IP.
His track record prior to 2022 was a skills and health train wreck. Over 500 IL days since 2016.
Skills offer a ton of potential profit at $7, but a $3.25 risk cost is generous.

In looking at the FISH List rankings, BABS has two players which really puzzle me – Juan Soto ranked 151 and Bryce Harper at 18 – cripple and all – what am I missing in these rankings?

Cripple is harsh. These BABS rankings in the FISH List are solely for the purpose of setting markers to determine optimal draft rounds. They are purely skills-based within the rankings of each asset group. Soto is at 151 because higher ranked asset groups — (ER,K+), (ER,KK), (PW,AV), etc. — have dozens of players in them. Harper is in one of the higher ranked asset groups, regardless of his health status (which is noted on the liabilities side of his ledger). In short, those BABS rankings are irrelevant for anything other than positioning each player in the FISH List. I should probably just delete them, really.