2023 Off-Season Transactions – Pitchers

by Doug Gruber

We continue our focus on the major off-season transactions from a BABS perspective.  In Update #1, we delved into the hitters. Let’s now look at the pitchers, starting with the big names.

The Rangers landed Jacob deGrom (E+,A+|INJ) for five years, $185 million. BABS Take:  He made only 15 starts in 2021 and fewer in 2022, yet deGrom bet on himself and secured a new long-term deal. His BABS rating shows he is as good as it gets at the position, IF healthy. That’s a huge IF, and a big bet for your 2nd round selection.

The Mets signed Justin Verlander (ER,KK) for $87 million over two years. BABS Take: Not many expected Verlander to do what he did coming off TJS a year ago, but he did. He’s now in a great pitcher’s park, supported by a great closer. BABS reminds us that father time eventually wins, and JV is due some regression but otherwise he should be a staff anchor once again.

The Yankees and Carlos Rodon (ER,K+) decided on six years and $162M. BABS Take: Rodon’s stats were elite (2.25 FIP, 26% K-BB, career best 178 IP), and the injury history is behind him, knock on wood. Skills wise, BABS situates Rodon on par with new teammate Cole, at a two round discount. Buy!

$68 million brought the Cubs and Jameson Taillon (e) together for four years. BABS Take: Taillon logged 177 innings across a career best 32 starts, showing that he has recovered from his second TJS. However, the ERA and K rate were pedestrian, which matches Taillon’s pedestrian asset rating. Leaving Yankee stadium and the AL East helps a little, but not enough for BABS to be a shopper at his ADP.

The Mets purchased Japanese ace Kodai Senga (e,KK|EX) for $75M over five years. BABS Take: Senga has been one of Japan’s best for 10 years, including a 1.94/1.06 in his final season. BABS is bullish on the skill set and his new home, making Senga one to grab at his 195 ADP.

Chris Bassitt (e) received three years and $63 million from the Blue Jays. BABS Take: Bassitt has made his living in pitcher-friendly venues at OAK and NYM and has strung together three good campaigns. But his actual stats have far bettered his expected outcomes. BABS continues to be skeptical here and rates his pitching skills as moderate and K skills as below average. That lone asset combined with a change to the AL East, park fences moving in, and an ADP at the 10-11 turn…PASS!

The Rays signed Zach Eflin (e,k|INJ) for three years and $40M. BABS Take: Tampa must see something special in Eflin, given his injury history and career stats that are ordinary. What BABS sees is a dual-asset arm, who moves to a pitcher friendly park, with a price at Round 24.  Eflin could effectively round out your staff.

Tyler Anderson (-) landed a three-year, $40M contract with the Angels, after rejecting a qualifying offer from LAD. BABS Take: Anderson had by far his career year at age 32, and it paid off generously. Anderson also rewarded his fantasy owners who scooped him off waivers and rode him through the year. But his results exceeded the underlying skills, which BABS rates as below average. On the positive, that is an improvement from a year ago when Anderson sat in the bottom 25% with (|-E). Resist!

Texas and Andrew Heaney (ER,K+|INJ) agreed to two years and $25 million. BABS Take: Heaney managed only 72 innings but his production in those innings was stellar, with a 29% K-BB rate and ratios of 3.10/1.09. As he joins the Rangers, health and volume remain the concerns.  BABS places Heaney in an elite company, sharing the same asset group as Cole and Rodon, making him a very enticing high risk, high reward pick at his 15th round ADP.

Nathan Eovaldi (e,k|INJ) inked a two-year, $34 million deal with the Rangers. BABS Take: Eovaldi started strong following a career best 2021 season. But back and shoulder issues set in, and he was not the same pitcher afterward. A noticeable velocity dip and k-rate erosion were evident. BABS knocked Eovaldi down a wrung on strikeout skills, but he still owns a pair of assets. Assuming he is healthy this spring, Eovaldi is worth consideration at his ADP.

A trio of big-name closers found new homes. The Red Sox signed Kenley Jansen (e,K+,sv-) to a two- year deal, Craig Kimbrel (e,K+,sv-) moved to the Phillies and the Royals came to terms with Aroldis Chapman (e,K+,sv-|INJ), pictured. BABS Take: A curious move signing Jansen for two years, since it was hard to tell this off-season if Boston was building a contender or just rebuilding.  Of this trio, Jansen is the closer with the clearest path, and the market agrees, shelling out a 6th round chit for his services. Enter the beauty of BABS! She considers this trio as having identical skill sets and recommends placing smaller bets on Kimbrel and Chapman in the reserve rounds for the possibility to collect big if they land the gig.

The White Sox and Mike Clevinger (k|-E) agreed to a one-year contract. BABS Take: His return from TJS did not go well, as Clevinger was further hampered by knee and tricep issues.  His velocity was down, causing a huge fall-off in his K-rate and a spike in home runs allowed, which also does not bode well as he moves to US Cellular. The BABS rating renders Clevinger not suitable for your fantasy teams, a far cry from his peak skills years in Cleveland.

Ross Stripling (e) and Sean Manaea (k|-E) each settled on two-year, $25M deals with the Giants. BABS Take: A tale of opposites. Stripling had his best season, knocking nearly 2 runs off his FIP, as he dramatically reduced his gopheritis woes. Manaea had his worst ever, with an ERA near 5 as more fly balls led to a career high in HRs allowed. Now they are teammates and likely in the SF rotation at a nice place to pitch. But that’s all noise to BABS, who looks at their skill sets and immediately runs away.

The Twins acquired Pablo Lopez (e,KK) in a trade with the Marlins. BABS Take: On the plus side, Lopez started 32 games, dispelling the prior injury concerns. On the flipside, Lopez saw his ERA increase by 0.75 runs and his K-rate fall from 28% to 24%. Still, BABS rates him in the very deep, talented (e,KK) group, and considers Lopez a value as a 12th round SP3-4.

The Mets and Jose Quintana (e,k) contracted a two-year, $26M deal. BABS Take: Quintana put together a wonderful season, his best since 2016 with the Chisox. He made 32 starts for PIT/STL, and delivered an ERA south of 3, in line with his FIP. BABS has bought in, moving Quintana into double-asset land. His new home park will certainly help, and at an ADP near pick 400, BABS says let’s roll with Q in 2023.

The Dodgers brought in  Noah Syndergaard (-) on a one-year contract. BABS Take: Things did not go well for Thor last year in LAA and Philly, as he returned from TJS and lost several ticks off his fastball, which also impacted his slider effectiveness. Now he receives an opportunity to fill the rotation voids of Anderson and Heaney. Sounds like a great landing spot, however, BABS cannot find any assets here, and does not think that “Dodger Magic” will be enough to overcome his skill deficiencies.

The Padres signed Seth Lugo (ER,KK) to a one-year deal that includes incentives as a starting pitcher. BABS Take: Lugo apparently wants to be an starter again. He had seven starts in the shortened 2020, but hasn’t been a full-time SP since 2017. BABS loves the skills and, based on a return to health and his end-game price tag, Lugo is worth a shot.

Japanese pitcher Shintaro Fujinami (KK|EX) was purchased by Oakland on a one-year deal. BABS Take: Fujinami doesn’t come with nearly the fanfare as countryman Senga, but reports say he can touch triple digits with the fastball and had a nearly 24% K-rate in 2022. Based on his assets and low ADP, BABS considers him worth a late arrow to see if he can successfully make the transition.    

The Marlins and Johnny Cueto (|-K) agreed to a one-year deal with a club option. BABS Take: A strange signing at the time, given the depth of quality arms on the Marlins staff. It made slightly more sense a week later when Pablo Lopez was dealt to the Twins. What makes no sense is for you to consider Cueto for a spot on your roster.