2023 Players to Pass On

by Doug Gruber

Knowing which players to pass on is a crucial element of our BABS draft plan. The asset group rankings help us cross off those players being selected in the early rounds who have insufficient skills and/or excessive risks that do not justify their steep price tags.

Let’s look at a number of players being drafted too high in the first dozen rounds of a mixed 15-team format.

Round 1, Front Half: Ronald Acuna (PW,s,a|inj-) [ADP 3], pictured. In 2019, Acuna had a magical season, nearly 40/40 with 228 runs + RBIs.  He hasn’t come close to those numbers since, nor has he been able to stay on the field.  Still, the market has pushed him as high as No. 1 overall, with visions of sugar plums and a 2019 repeat dancing in their heads. BABS rates him with triple assets that are mostly moderate. But for your top pick you want elite skills, and that’s not what Acuna has displayed in recent seasons. Others to Avoid: Jose Ramirez (p,AV|INJ) [4].

Round 1, Back Half: Juan Soto (p,AV) [10] put up another 20+ percent BB rate, leading to 135 walks and another year of an OBP over .400, which is gold for OBP or points leagues. However, for standard 5×5, Soto took a plunge in all the hitting categories, leaving BABS no choice but to drop his rating in batting effectiveness from the elite level. Soto now sits in an asset class ranked much lower than others more suitable for first round consideration. Others to Avoid: Vladimir Guerrero (p,AV) [12].

Rounds 2-3: Sandy Alcantara (ER,k) [29]. The unanimous winner of the NL Cy Young award, Alcantara led the league in IP, and delivered a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His underlying metrics were less favorable… for example, a FIP nearly a run higher, and a K/9 around 8…to go along with good fortune in BABIP, left on base percent and HR/F. Drafters are selecting Alcantara as the No. 3 SP, but BABS is betting against him earning a return on a 2nd round draft cost. Others to Avoid: Nolan Arenado (p,AV) [37], Daulton Varsho (PW,s) [40].

Rounds 4-5: Luis Robert (p,AV|INJ,e) [48] was a first round choice a year ago, but numerous injuries once again ruined his season, and the power/speed potential remained just that. BABS likes his batting skills, rates the power as moderate, but isn’t buying into a speed asset. (With zero SBs over the last 4 months, who’s to argue?)  The market has dropped him a few rounds but early round 4 is still too pricey. Others to Avoid: Ozzie Albies (p,a|INJ) [52], Alek Manoah (e,k) [69].

Rounds 6-7: Xander Bogaerts (a) [88]. While Bogaerts continues to be reliable from a health perspective, BABS witnesses power skills that have declined to below league average and plate metrics that do not guarantee the lofty batting averages that Bogaerts has produced.  Now he moves away from Fenway to a new team with a considerable park downgrade. His value has been elevated by that .300 BA; without it, Bogaerts is unlikely to earn anywhere close to 6th round value. Others to Avoid: Bryan Reynolds (p,a) [91], M.J. Melendez (p|-A,e} [98].

Rounds 8-9: Jeremy Pena (SB|e) [112] started fast and ended the year with a pair of MVP trophies during the post season. In between, Pena’s weaknesses in his power and plate skills were exposed.  An ISO of .173 and a bleak 28 percent hard hit rate did not support his HR production and a lack of plate discipline and too many ground balls seemed to correlate to his lowly .235 average in the 2nd half.  BABS thinks the speed skills are legit, but a speed source combined with two below average skills is not an archetype for a Round 8 investment. Others to Avoid: Luis Severino (e,k|INJ) [117], C.J. Cron (p,a) [125].

Rounds 10-12: Chris Bassitt (e) [156] profiles as a pitcher with a 3.60-3.70 FIP, a solid WHIP, and a K percent well below league average. After several seasons benefitting from pitcher havens in OAK and NYM, he now joins the Jays. As your SP3-4, there are many more skillful arms available at this point in the draft. Others to Avoid: Giancarlo Stanton (PW|-A,inj-) [145], Jose Miranda (a|EX) [152].

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.