2023 Post-Hype Prospects

by Curt Brooks

We’re defining post-hype prospects as those who have been highly touted early in their careers yet are still not meeting expectations. We reviewed five-years’ worth of prospect lists, focusing primarily on top-25-ish players. With the perspective of time, this serves as a tool to help assess the current value of a prospect in a fantasy manager’s performance of due diligence.

Hitters

Nick Gordon (p,SB,a|EX) definitely merits attention as a rare triple-asset player who is projected for Mid-time PT this year with multi-position eligibility. He is potentially golden and is comparable (skill-wise) to drafting Marcus Semien or Randy Arozarena in the 20th round, with only the experience risk to plan around. Eloy Jimenez (p,a|INJ) has never quite lived up to expectations but is expected to contribute in two categories if you can absorb the injury risk. And a little lower in the same category, you will find Dylan Carlson (p,a|inj-) with lower risk but a PT projection as a Mid-timer. BABS fully supports these players, bearing in mind their liabilities.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (s,a|), who is coming along quite nicely from a top-10 ranking, possesses a solid skill set and no liabilities. He is a solid choice, not to mention a nice consolation prize, in the middle rounds should you miss out on the top players at 3B. Andrew Vaughn (p,a) is another BABS jewel with multi-position eligibility (1B-OF) and no liabilities. Plus, each of these guys is slated for Full-time ABs…sweet!

Former No. 1 prospect Wander Franco (s,A+|INJ,e), pictured, has skills worth salivating over, but be prepared to absorb his $4.00 risk cost in your budget with a pick in Rounds 7 or 8. BABS sees both Luis Urias (p|inj-) and Brendan Rodgers (a) as potential contributors with a nominal cost of a 20th rounder. Likewise, former ROTY Jonathan India (a|INJ) can be had in the mid-teens rounds. Each of these MIs is projected for full-time ABs.

On the other hand, Francisco Meijia (a|inj-,e), now 27, is the backup catcher with his third club, quite the fall from a top-5 ranking that included Acuna and Vlad. Nick Senzel (|-P,INJ) was once rated in the top 10 among prospects, but BABS says “Pass” on both of these players now.

And BABS says, “Just.Say.No” when it comes to Carter Kieboom (*|-PA,INJ), even though he was a top-20 prospect as recently as three years ago.

Pitchers

Dylan Cease (e,KK|Rg-) had his coming out party last year and projects to be an extremely valuable pitcher again this year, just watch for the negative regression risk. Jesus Luzardo (e,KK|INJ,e), is still looking to log significant innings due to various injuries (TJS, shoulder, lat, forearm). However, when he’s on the mound, the skills are there – just be advised of his high (4.00) risk cost. When it comes to risk, Dustin May (ER,KK|INJ,EX) even tops Luzardo, but his skills definitely put him in elite territory (Woodruff, Nola, Verlander, among others) – just don’t expect a full workload.

Mitch Keller (e) does have the one skill with no liabilities, but still has a way to go before being a real contributor. Ian Anderson (k|e) has never quite turned the corner to realize his potential and has now fallen into the 50-round draft and hold category.

Conversely, Michael Kopech (k|INJ,e) is carrying (barely) positive R$ value on the potential of 120 IP projections, despite a fairly sizable risk cost and only one skill. Brusdar Graterol (ER|INJ,e), battled two injuries last year – shoulder and elbow – with only one skill to his credit. Alex Reyes (KK|-E,INJ) has previously demonstrated skills, but currently carries one of the highest pitching risk scores around. BABS is a hard pass on all three pitchers.

Mackenzie Gore (k|INJ,EX) is now toiling in Washington but is only projected for Part-time IP….next! Michael Soroka (Rg+|-K,INJ) has only positive regression going for him versus one skill liability and the INJ risk…moving on. Sixto Sanchez  (e|INJ,EX) hasn’t pitched since 2020 but says he has recently lost 46 pounds.  BABS is ready to wave the white flag for this group.

And, unfortunately, Luis Patino (|-EK,INJ,EX) is the pitching equivalent of the Carter Kieboom story above – “J.S.N.”

Special Category

Unfortunately, our old friend Forrest Whitley (|-EK,INJ,EX) makes a return to this section after being injured (for the umpteenth time) last year and is now tied for BABS’ third highest risk score.

Spring training performance may have something to say about the future of many of the players included here, so watch closely when teams are making their early PT decisions. And, trades or injuries could also be a factor in actual PT for each of these players.

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.