2023 Relief Pitchers

(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

Woke in a cold sweat at 2AM. The recurring nightmare was back. It was April 10th, I was on stage again, ready to spin the Wheel of Closers. Am I the only one? 

This time of year, it’s not all bad. Plenty of potential in the RP ranks. Assets up the wazoo, and the sweet smell of speculation in the air. Here are the BABS ratings for relief pitchers who will potentially provide positive value to your team:

ADP R$ RELIEVERS Pos Tm PT ER K SV * Rg Sk Inj Ex Ag Rg RISK
24 $27 Diaz,Edwin rp NYM E+ K+ SV Rg- 0.50
57 $18 Pressly,Ryan rp HOU E+ K+ SV inj- 3.00
54 $19 Williams,Devin rp MIL E+ K+ sv- Rg- 0.50
91 $14 Hendriks,Liam rp CHW E+ K+ sv- INJ+ 5.00
117 $11 Bednar,David rp PIT E+ K+ sv- INJ e 4.00
164 $8 Munoz,Andres rp SEA E+ K+ sv- INJ e 4.00
221 $5 Fairbanks,Peter rp TAM E+ K+ sv- Rg- 0.50
130 $10 Duran,Jhoan rp MIN E+ K+ EX 2.00
563 -$4 Alvarado,Jose rp PHI E+ K+ 0.00
713 -$7 Kahnle,Thomas rp NYY E+ K+ 0.25
735 -$7 Cleavinger,Garrett rp TAM E+ K+ EX 2.00
27 $26 Clase,Emmanuel rp CLE E+ KK SV Rg- 0.50
121 $11 Holmes,Clay rp NYY E+ KK sv- 0.00
68 $16 Iglesias,Raisel rp ATL ER K+ SV 0.00
37 $22 Hader,Josh rp SD ER K+ sv- Rg+ 0.00
71 $16 Bautista,Felix rp BAL ER K+ sv- EX Rg- 2.50
295 $2 Gallegos,Giovanny rp STL ER K+ sv- Rg- 0.50
366 $0 Adam,Jason rp TAM ER K+ sv- e Rg- 1.50
539 -$4 Lange,Alex rp DET ER K+ sv- e 1.00
555 -$4 Suarez,Robert rp SD E+ KK INJ EX Rg- 5.50
738 -$7 Hentges,Sam rp CLE E+ KK e 1.00
139 $9 Diaz,Alexis rp CIN e K+ sv- EX Rg- 2.50
197 $6 Leclerc,Jose rp TEX e K+ sv- INJ Rg- 3.50
447 -$2 Karinchak,James rp CLE ER K+ INJ e Rg- 4.50
562 -$4 Minter,A.J. rp ATL ER K+ Rg- 0.50
577 -$5 Brash,Matt rp SEA ER K+ EX 2.00
594 -$5 Abreu,Bryan rp HOU ER K+ e Rg- 1.50
652 -$6 Vesia,Alex rp LA ER K+ e Rg- 1.50
684 -$6 Stephan,Trevor rp CLE ER K+ e 1.00
686 -$6 Neris,Hector rp HOU ER K+ 0.00
745 -$7 Moran,Jovani rp MIN ER K+ EX 2.00
748 -$7 Lee,Dylan rp ATL ER K+ EX Rg- 2.50
46 $20 Romano,Jordan rp TOR ER KK SV Rg- 0.50
76 $15 Helsley,Ryan rp STL ER KK sv- Rg- 0.50
83 $14 Doval,Camilo rp SF ER KK sv- e 1.00
119 $11 Barlow,Scott rp KC ER KK sv- Rg- 0.50
187 $7 Sewald,Paul rp SEA ER KK sv- Rg- 0.50
225 $5 Dominguez,Seranthony rp PHI ER KK sv- INJ e 4.00
348 $0 Rogers,Taylor rp SF ER KK sv- Rg+ 0.25
454 -$2 Hudson,Daniel rp LA ER KK sv- INJ Ag 3.25
466 -$2 Hughes,Brandon rp CHC ER KK sv- EX Rg- 2.50
558 -$4 Graveman,Kendall rp CHW ER k sv- 0.00
635 -$5 Scott,Tanner rp MIA e K+ 0.00
656 -$6 Jimenez,Joe rp ATL e K+ 0.25
703 -$6 Sims,Lucas rp CIN e K+ Rg+ INJ 3.00
722 -$7 Smith,Will rp HOU e K+ 0.00
728 -$7 Lamet,Dinelson rp COL e K+ INJ 3.00
738 -$7 Pagan,Emilio rp MIN e K+ Rg+ 0.00
80 $15 Jansen,Kenley rp BOS e KK sv- Rg- 0.75
398 -$1 Kimbrel,Craig rp PHI e KK sv- 0.25
126 $10 Bard,Daniel rp COL e k sv- Ag Rg- 0.75
267 $3 Finnegan,Kyle rp WAS e k sv- Rg- 0.50
664 -$6 Mantiply,Joe rp ARI e k sv- e 1.00
294 $2 Floro,Dylan rp MIA ER sv- inj- 1.00
573 -$4 May,Trevor rp OAK k sv- INJ 3.00
263 $3 Lopez,Jorge rp MIN e SV Rg- 0.50
462 -$2 Herget,Jimmy rp LAA e sv- inj- e Rg- 2.50

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience),  Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost. (Some BABS categories have been omitted due to space limitations but appear in the full database and spreadsheet charts.) 

For the second consecutive season, BABS projects just six closers to be “the guy” in the 9th. Does it make sense to pay up for one of the top guys? Let’s see…

It’s not necessary to spend big to get top skills (E+,K+). Yes, Edwin Diaz, Ryan Pressly and Devin Williams are the cream of the BABS crop, and will set you back (ADPs 24/57/54). But there are pockets begging to be taken for profit. David Bednar, Andres Munoz and Peter Fairbanks own the same skills, but lack the full-time saves projections. Bednar and Munoz are high risk, while Fairbanks is the cheapest and BABS likes his potential reliability. 

Emmanuel Clase (E+,KK — pictured) emerged as one of the game’s greats last season. Acquiring that reputation and skill set will cost a 2nd round pick. But what if I told you the 2023 version of Clase could be snapped up near pick 121? Well, maybe not exactly Clase, but if Clay Holmes (E+,KK) can get in the neighborhood, your saves category would be thankful. 

The (ER,K+) asset group is chock-full of save opportunities at all stages of the draft. Rasiel Iglesias is one of the “big six” tabbed for full-time duty, and he comes in 30 picks more affordable than Josh Hader. Same skills. Felix Bautista is ready to roll again in Baltimore, in the same phase of the draft as Iglesias. This group becomes speculative after Bautista. Giovanny Gallegos is definitely rosterable at pick 295. Tuck away names like Alex Lange in Detroit and Jason Adam in Tampa. Both are essentially undrafted but could appear in the 9th at some point. 

Jordan Romano heads up the robust (ER,KK) society. He’s the alpha in Toronto, while the other eight members appear to be in a job share. Ryan Helsley was a league-winner last season, but isn’t being drafted like one. Betting on a repeat is likely a fool’s errand, but what if? Camilo Doval and Scott Barlow represent solid mid-tier options. While Paul Sewald and Seranthony Dominguez have talent enough to chip in. End-gamers Taylor Rogers, Daniel Hudson and Brandon Hughes have the requisite BABS assets worthy of speculation.

When it comes to finishing games, experience and guile do count for something. These aren’t quantifiable traits, but even in this sabermetric era, some managers still seem to take them into account. Which means that Kenley Jansen (e,KK) will likely have a long leash in Boston. He received a multi-year deal and despite declining skills, continues to find ways to slam the door at the end. Craig Kimbrel enjoys the same assets but Philadelphia’s bullpen is crowded with talent. For the price (basically free), Craig would be an upside play. 

Again, lesser-skilled RPs who have a track record of putting out fires can still hold the job. And when it comes to accumulating saves, that matters. Spin the (e,k) wheel and you might land on Daniel Bard or Kyle Finnegan. Bard’s job would appear to be secure after 36 saves in 2022. Finnegan less so, but two consecutive seasons with double-digit saves should keep him in the mix. Their respective ADPs illustrate the difference. 

Many of the names already mentioned will likely be pushed aside due to ineffectiveness or injury, which is par for the course. It makes sense to  identify potential closers in waiting, and this has always been one of BABS’ strong suits. If space permits, rostering top-shelf skills can pay off in a big way. Were you happy to have drafted or acquired Paul Sewald, Hector Neris or Camilo Doval last season? None of their draft projections registered a BABS saves asset, but how did that turn out? Very well if you cherry-picked the highest rated leftovers! Who might populate a 2023 list? Well, nothing is certain, but studs like Jhoan Duran (E+,K+), Robert Suarez (E+,KK) and James Karinchak (ER,K+) could provide value if the situation materializes. BABS has many more options for your perusal.

Happy hunting!

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.