2023 Thirdbasemen
(Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)
by Doug Gruber
The third base pool is viewed as extremely shallow by early drafters for 2023. As such, Jose Ramirez is a Top 5 choice, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers and Austin Riley (pictured) have been pushed into the late first/early second rounds, and Nolan Arenado is taken not long after. BABS says all are fine players, but there are numerous batters in high ranked asset groups at other positions more worthy of your top round investments. Instead, BABS offers several multi-asset 3Bmen who can be acquired at more reasonable prices.
Let’s take a closer look at the BABS ratings for the 2023 third basemen:
| ADP | R$ | CATCHERS | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Rg | Sk | Inj | Ex | Ag | Rg | RISK | |
| 3 | $47 | Ramirez,Jose | 50 | CLE | F | p | s | AV | * | INJ | 5.00 | ||||||
| 15 | $31 | Machado,Manny | 5 | SD | F | PW | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 21 | $28 | Devers,Rafael | 5 | BOS | F | PW | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 23 | $27 | Riley,Austin | 5 | ATL | F | PW | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 92 | $13 | Henderson,Gunnar | 5 | BAL | F | p | SB | a | * | EX | 2.00 | ||||||
| 146 | $9 | Muncy,Max | 540 | LA | F | P+ | * | Rg+ | inj- | 0.00 | |||||||
| 646 | -$6 | Longoria,Evan | 5 | ARI | P | PW | a | INJ | Ag | 3.50 | |||||||
| 38 | $22 | Arenado,Nolan | 5 | STL | F | p | AV | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 79 | $15 | Bregman,Alex | 5 | HOU | F | p | AV | * | 0.00 | ||||||||
| 299 | $2 | Turner,Justin | 50 | BOS | F | p | AV | Ag | 0.50 | ||||||||
| 166 | $8 | Hayes,KeBryan | 5 | PIT | F | s | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 195 | $6 | Drury,Brandon | 5340 | LAA | M | p | a | 0.25 | |||||||||
| 247 | $4 | Rendon,Anthony | 5 | LAA | M | p | a | * | Rg+ | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||
| 443 | -$2 | Escobar,Eduardo | 5 | NYM | F | p | a | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 506 | -$3 | Urias,Ramon | 54 | BAL | M | p | a | inj- | e | 2.00 | |||||||
| 297 | $2 | Diaz,Yandy | 5 | TAM | F | AV | * | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 449 | -$2 | Urshela,Giovanny | 5 | LAA | M | AV | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 217 | $5 | Jung,Josh | 5 | TEX | F | PW | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||
| 221 | $5 | McMahon,Ryan | 5 | COL | F | PW | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 149 | $9 | Suarez,Eugenio | 5 | SEA | F | P+ | * | -A | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 162 | $8 | Chapman,Matt | 5 | TOR | F | P+ | * | -A | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 513 | -$3 | Wisdom,Patrick | 5 | CHC | M | P+ | -A | e | 4.00 | ||||||||
| 611 | -$5 | Villar,David | 5 | SF | P | P+ | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
| 184 | $7 | Bohm,Alec | 5 | PHI | F | a | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 195 | $6 | Rojas,Josh | 54 | ARI | F | a | * | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 269 | $3 | Walker,Jordan | 5 | STL | P | s | 0.00 | ||||||||||
| 251 | $4 | Urias,Luis | 546 | MIL | F | p | inj- | 1.00 | |||||||||
| 532 | -$4 | Davis,J.D. | 5 | SF | F | p | * | 0.00 | |||||||||
| 541 | -$4 | Candelario,Jeimer | 5 | WAS | M | p | Rg+ | 0.25 | |||||||||
| 631 | -$5 | Montero,Elehuris | 5 | COL | F | p | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||
| 718 | -$7 | Rivera,Emmanuel | 5 | ARI | P | p | EX | 2.00 | |||||||||
| 531 | -$4 | Wendle,Joe | 564 | MIA | F | s | a | -P | INJ | 4.00 | |||||||
| 254 | $4 | LeMahieu,DJ | 543 | NYY | M | AV | * | -P | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 427 | -$2 | Paredes,Isaac | 543 | TAM | M | * | Rg+ | e | 1.00 | ||||||||
| 565 | -$4 | Baty,Brett | 5 | NYM | P | inj- | EX | 3.00 | |||||||||
| 694 | -$6 | Duran,Ezequiel | 5 | TEX | P | EX | 2.00 | ||||||||||
| 749 | -$7 | Brosseau,Michael | 5 | MIL | P | PW | -A | inj- | Rg- | 4.50 | |||||||
| 743 | -$7 | Kreidler,Ryan | 56 | DET | M | SB | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
| 744 | -$7 | Freeman,Tyler | 5 | CLE | P | s | -P | EX | 3.00 | ||||||||
| 749 | -$7 | Smith,Kevin | 5 | OAK | P | s | -A | EX | 5.00 | ||||||||
| 561 | -$4 | Donaldson,Josh | 50 | NYY | M | p | * | -A | Ag | 3.25 | |||||||
| 711 | -$7 | Groshans,Jordan | 5 | MIA | P | -P | EX | 3.00 | |||||||||
| 748 | -$7 | Vargas,Ildemaro | 5 | WAS | P | -P | e | 2.00 | |||||||||
| 312 | $2 | Moncada,Yoan | 5 | CHW | F | Rg+ | -A | INJ | 6.00 | ||||||||
| 553 | -$4 | Steer,Spencer | 5 | CIN | M | -A | EX | 5.00 | |||||||||
| 631 | -$5 | Peterson,Jace | 5 | OAK | F | * | -A | inj- | 4.50 | ||||||||
| 647 | -$6 | Anderson,Brian | 5o9 | MIL | M | -A | INJ | 6.25 | |||||||||
| 681 | -$6 | Smith,Josh | 5o7 | TEX | P | s | * | -PA | EX | 6.00 | |||||||
| 728 | -$7 | Kieboom,Carter | 5 | WAS | P | * | -PA | INJ | 7.00 |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost. (Some BABS categories have been omitted due to space limitations but appear in the full database and spreadsheet charts.)
In the (p,AV) group, rather than Arenado, Alex Bregman has similar power and batting abilities and is available in Round 6. Bregman’s plate skills are elite, suggesting he deserved better than his .259 BA, and he put up his best power output since 2019. Perhaps the best value of this group is the seemingly ageless Justin Turner, fresh off a 2022 2nd half where he hit .328 with an OBP over .400. BABS thinks Turner should again outperform his draft price, currently sitting near round 20.
Gunner Henderson (p,SB,a) is a potential triple-asset threat, but you can’t ignore his EXperience risk, which significantly widens the error bars around any projection. Slowed by an elbow injury early on, Max Muncy (P+) offers extreme power, multiple-position eligibility and positive regression as well, which could be very profitable at his 10th round ADP as long as you can build the lingering injury concerns into your risk budget. Ke’Bryan Hayes (s,a) has speed and average at a corner infield spot in the 12th round, which may also prove to be a profitable spot.
Market prices for the (p,a) asset group fall in a wide range, with a couple of deep discounts. Brandon Drury had a career season with 28/87/.263 in over 500 at bats, making him a potential bargain at pick 200. BABS has lowered Anthony Rendon’s asset rating from his pre-injury days, but a 15th round selection could be a nice value if he ever got healthy. Eduardo Escobar had a strong September (8 HRs, >1.000 OPS) amid a underwhelming year, and now that Carlos Correa is no longer blocking him, his end game price tag could be a sneaky profit source (though it will probably rise some). Ditto for Ramon Urias, as drafters must be are assuming he is a player without a position in Baltimore. But a dual-asset, multi-position player may be worth a speculative grab.
In addition to Muncy, there are several other extreme power options, although all with batting skills (-A) risk: Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman and Patrick Wisdom. Still, depending on your roster construction, finding 30+ HR production at 3B in the later rounds could prove to be useful.
Intriguing part-timers include Evan Longoria (PW,a|INJ) and David Villar (P+,-A|EX). Longoria’s departure from SF could open playing time possibilities for Villar. But skill wise, BABS rates Villar above the Giants assumed starter JD Davis (p), and Longoria above Arizona’s projected 3Bman Josh Rojas (a|inj-). Could these be examples of “draft skills over roles” in 2023? It costs nothing to find out as Longoria and Villar are both are going undrafted in most standard leagues.
Finally, while BABS provides us with a list of targets, another benefit is to caution against selecting those who no longer have the skills to help our fantasy teams. For 2023, Yoan Moncada (|-A,INJ), Josh Donaldson (p|-A) and Brian Anderson (|-A,INJ) are among the players at 3B to avoid this season.
NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.