2023 Positional Overview – Pitchers

by Curt Brooks

This is BABS’ overview of the pitcher pool by position and playing time. We also examine the various skill categories, including skill combinations, and liabilities. A 12-team league can probably expect to roster between 75-100 starters, and a 15-team leagues can project to need between 90-120 starters. As you can see in the charts, demand for high-skilled starters can easily exceed supply.

Starters

Of the 291 starters BABS has reviewed, 20 have earned the full-time (F) badge (180+ IP). The good news? All have (ER) skills, and all but four of them possess (K) skills. And with only one having a Skills liability and one (e) liability, this is generally a very solid and productive group – BABS says to seek them out and pay up.

With fewer full-time pitchers to choose from, you will find the bulk of your starting rotation among the Mid-time (M) starters.  Note that half of the pitchers in this group possess dual pitching skills, but here you must start watching for liabilities as both injuries — 45 percent — and lack of experience — almost 30 percent — do exist.

As you might expect, skills tail off as playing time decreases (or is it the other way around?). Regardless, one can certainly supplement an otherwise solid staff with high-skilled, part-time pitchers. This summary reveals that almost one-third of this group has dual skills, but be forewarned, relatively few are without some form of liability.

While chasing No-time starters can be a shot in the dark, BABS significantly enhances your odds of success by identifying SPs with above-average skills who may be able to earn greater playing time if the stars align. For example, at this time last year, BABS had both Luis Severino and Nick Lodolo listed as No-timers with highly rated skills, and this year each has an ADP in the 8-12 round range! Remember…skills rule!

# of Starting Pitchers by PT and Skills

PT Category	SP Universe	ER		K		Both ER & K
		#	%	#	%	#	%
F	20	20	100%	16	80%	16	80%
M	110	64	64%	59	59%	50	50%
P	42	15	36%	17	40%	13	31%
No-Timers	118	34	29%	24	20%	18	15%
Total	290	133	46%	116	40%	97	33%

Summary of Liabilities – Starters

Here we focus on the major pitching liabilities –pitching skill, injuries, and experience. Minor liabilities (park effect, new team, etc.) are not addressed in this overview.

As noted above, full-time starters do not have any INJ or EX liabilities – invest with confidence.

The mid-time pitchers still demonstrate a high level of pitching skill, with only about 10 percent showing skill liabilities. However, injuries will prove to be the main consideration in your risk planning with this group – 40 percent have some level of INJ risk. Conversely, this is a relatively experienced group as only about 1 in 4 carry the EX risk factor.

The Part-time (P) starter category presents quite a different picture in terms of liabilities. Both pitching effectiveness and strikeout skills begin to diminish with about half of the group showing some liabilities in one, or both, areas. Not to mention, about 50 percent carry the INJ and EX risks. Pay attention to liabilities in this segment of starters.

Finally, the No-timers (NT) must be carefully studied to avoid accumulating too much risk to your pitching staff. This group has lower injury risk but the experience factor skyrockets – these are overwhelmingly younger pitchers without established track records. Considering pitchers take longer to develop than hitters, pay close attention to your risk score when investing here.

Major Liabilities – SPs

PT	SP	Skills						INJ		EX
		-E		-K		-EK
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
F	6	0	—	0	—	0	—	0	—	0	—
M	124	6	5%	12	10%	12	10%	50	40%	33	27%
P	42	3	7%	7	17%	11	26%	21	50%	21	50%
NT	118	14	12%	20	17%	51	43%	30	25%	104	88%
Tot	290	23	8%	39	13%	74	26%	101	35%	158	54%

Closers

Of the 362 relievers reviewed, only 36 (10%) are projected to record 10 or more saves. For those expected to be solidly frontline closers (SV), all but one has a skill rating of at least (ER,KK). These are elite pitchers and only a few minor liabilities in the entire group. BABS says…invest!

Of those pitchers with more ninth inning risk (sv-), all but one carries the (ER) skill and all but two possess (K) skills, with 89 percent carrying dual skills. All-in-all, this is also a highly-skilled group.

RPs with Projected Saves (Closers) and their Skills

SV Category	Universe	ER		K		Both ER & K
		#	%	#	%	#	%
SV	6	6	100%	5	86%	5	86%
sv-	30	29	97%	28	93%	27	90%
Total	36	35	97%	33	92%	32	89%

Liability-wise, front-line closers demonstrate few weaknesses, with only one minor injury among them – BABS is high on this group. Those showing (sv-) potential is a bit more of a mixed bag – no skills risk, but almost one-third holding either injury or experience risk, including two with both risks.

Major Liabilities – RPs with Projected Saves

PT Cat	SP Univ.	Skills						INJ		EX
		-E		-K		-EK
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
SV	6	0	—	0	—	0	—	1	17%	0	—
sv-	30	0	—	0	—	0	—	9	30%	11	37%
Total	36	0	—	0	—	0	—	10	28%	11	31%

Other Relievers – Without Projected Saves

This group consists of relievers who are not expected to save at least 10 games in 2023 and is quite a large group – over 300 total. In most standard leagues, BABS strongly suggests that you ignore the “No Skills” sub-group. So, let’s focus only on those pitchers with skills, and you will immediately note that over 60 percent of this subset possesses both pitching effectiveness and strikeout skills. These pitchers are most likely to move into a higher leverage situation in the bullpen or perhaps even get a shot at a starting gig – BABS thinks this is where you should “start” when evaluating this group of pitchers. 

Skills – Relievers without Projected Saves

Category	Universe	ER		K		Both ER & K
		#	%	#	%	#	%
With Skills	226	182	80%	216	96%	139	62%
No Skills	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	337	182	54%	216	64%	139	41%

As one might expect, the liabilities of this group are plentiful and are even more reason to be cautious. The lack of experience alone screams “Danger, danger”, but when coupled with the lack of skills, one should definitely be exploring other avenues for your team.

Major Liabilities – RPs without Projected Saves

Cat.	Univ	Skills						INJ		EX
		-E		-K		-EK
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
With Skills	226	14	6%	24	11%	0	—	61	27%	149	66%
No Skills	111	6	5%	42	38%	55	50%	29	26%	86	77%
Total	337	20	6%	66	20%	55	16%	90	27%	235	70%

(Note: All data as of February 1.)

NOTES: The data in the above charts may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.