The 2022 Nouveau Elite

by Pat Cloghessy

Today, BABS will assist us in the quest to unearth who might inhabit the next crop of $30 players. This year’s rising stars. The Nouveau Elite.

There are few obvious choices in this exercise, but one may be Yordan Alvarez (P+,AV). His skill set has the thirsty appeal of a four-category monster. Elite power and excellent batting effectiveness are rare when paired together. Alvarez (pictured) was fantastic a season ago, despite recovering from double knee surgeries. If he stays healthy…Rocket emoji, rocket emoji. 

Jorge Polanco (p,AV) came close to a $30 season in 2021, but not quite ($27). The 30 homers seemed to come out of nowhere, but really it was just a continuation of a stellar 2019 season. Give him the pass for 2020 and we are looking at a batter firmly in his peak years. The BABS assets don’t necessarily scream First Round Value, but there are others in the same group who have reached the $30 plateau (Machado, Bogaerts, Rendon). If what we saw in 2019 and 2021 are the new Jorge, Nouveau Elite status is within reach.

Triple-threat Luis Robert (p,SB,a) is being drafted like a $30 player, though he has never reached it. Normally, this is a tell that a player’s draft value might be overheated. In Robert’s case, the fundamentals are there. If you pay up at the table, Robert’s BABS assets show he has the ability to return something close to equal value.

If Robert’s price is too steep, try Randy Arozarena (p,SB,a) on for size. Same assets, much cheaper. And by BABS’ standards, eerily similar likelihood to reach “elite” status. Randy has the speed and the power. The only caveat may be his plate discipline, though it did improve slightly in 2021. 

It’s become increasingly difficult for starting pitchers to reach the $30 level. As a whole, innings per start are way down, decreasing win opportunities. Frankie Montas (ER,KK) has the requisite assets to make the leap. Few starters own better skills, and Montas’ 2021 showed he is still improving. He set a career high swinging strike rate over 187 innings last season. Other metrics were at or near his mini-breakout of 2019. Logging that many innings in today’s environment puts Montas on the endangered species list. An ADP that hovers around 90 allows for a wide profit margin. Sleeper picks are dead. Long live sleepers!

Over the last two complete MLB seasons, Max Fried (ER,k) has amassed 166 IP twice. He’s on the cusp of becoming a workhorse. If the innings bump up this season (caveat emptor), Fried has the assets to pile up strikeouts. He posted a career low walk rate in 2021, which tends to indicate the ability to go deeper in games. Fried’s resume reads like someone with potential to enter the ranks of the elite. 

Quick Hits:

Daulton Varsho’s (p,SB,a) short track record is a legitimate reason to wait on draft day. But imagine this for a moment…a $30 triple-asset threat occupying a catcher slot. 

Jesse Winker (p,A+) sees his outlook dampen a bit with a move to the AL and the ballpark downgrade. Still, the assets are present to make a run at 25/100/.325. That’s in the vicinity of eliteness. 

Jazz Chisolm (p,S+) can skyrocket. The sub-70% contact rate may hold him back, but if gains are made.. Jazz → New Orleans → French Quarter → Nouveau Elite. Something is brewing here. Ask your Illuminati friend to connect the dots.

Bonne chance!