2022 High risk players going far too high

by Greg Fishwick

Through ADP 63, there are 20 hitters and eight pitchers with Risk Costs of $3.00 or more, of which eight hitters and four pitchers with costs at least $5.00. Those high-risk players are irreplaceable from any free agent pool. BABS suggests strategies to reduce the risk of rostering them by targeting alternatives with similar skills.

Similar skills, lower liability

Let’s start at the top with Fernando Tatis (P+,SB,AV), whose Risk Cost after the latest news is now $7.00. The closest match is Shohei Ohtani the hitter (P+,SB,a*). He has $0 Risk Cost and in OBP leagues, he may be the better skills choice anyway. First-rounder Mookie Betts (PW,SB,AV*) also has a $3.00 Risk Cost. Trevor Story (PW,SB,a) has similar skills with $0 Risk Cost in round 3.

With the lockout cancelling at least the first week of play, first-rounder Ronald Acuna’s (P+,s,a*) Risk Cost of $5.00 may soon decline as his knee heals without costing him playing time. Accounting for the possibility of Acuna (pictured) losing some stolen bases can be factored into drafts later, and full-timers Bryce Harper (P+,AV*), at $0.25, and Nick Castellanos (P+,AV), $0, have the same or better asset ratings.

Second-rounders Luis Robert (p,SB,a), $7.25, and Ozzie Albies (p,s,a), $5.00, also have speed ratings that can be planned for later in the draft. But don’t look to fellow 2nd-rounder Starling Marte (S+,AV) for help in either case—his Risk Cost is $3.50. Better to target the tandem of Jose Ramirez (PW,s,AV*), $0, and Kyle Tucker (PW,s,AV), $2.00, early. Or, you could pick a pair from the following five full-timers with (p,SB,a) profiles, ADPs from 31 to 142 and Risk Costs from $0-$2.00: Cedric Mullins (31, $0.25), Randy Arozarena, (59, $2.00), Javier Baez, (63, $0.50), Daulton Varsho, (95, $2.00) and Chris Taylor, (142, $0).

The skills assets of Mike Trout (P+,AV*), $5.25, ADP 15; Yordan Alvarez (P+,AV), $7.00, ADP 30; and Aaron Judge (P+,AV*), $5.00, ADP 38 also should be acquired more safely elsewhere. Dropping down to the (PW,AV) asset group uncovers three full-timers and two mid-timers carrying Risk Costs of only $0 or $1.00. Rafael Devers, Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez all have Risk Costs of $0. Mid-timers A.J. Pollock and Darin Ruf have Risk Costs of $1.00.

The (PW,a) asset group produces eight more full-time targets with Risk Costs of $1.25 or less, in ADP order: Matt Olson (43, $0), Austin Riley (53, $0.25), Pete Alonso (57, $0), Franmil Reyes (130, $1.00), Willy Adames (135, $0), Joey Votto (152, $1.25), Ryan McMahon (167, $0) and Wil Myers (280, $0). Targeting any two—or more—of them costs less in both ADP/AAV and risk than pursuing one of the high-risk hitters going far too high.

Spend more, save more

On the pitching side, Shohei Ohtani ($5.00), Shane Bieber ($5.00), Chris Sale ($5.00) and Jacob deGrom ($5.25) are all in the first four rounds. Again, they’re irreplaceable from any free agent pool. There’s no discounted match for deGrom’s top profile of (E+,K+). But you can go bigger and get Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who has a $0 Risk Cost. That’s a strategy we’ll call “spend more to save more,” avoiding Risk Costs without foregoing skills.

The asset group just below is (ER,K+), and Bieber and Sale are both there. Along with the “spend more to save more” plays of Gerrit Cole ($0) and Max Scherzer ($3.75) in the same (ER,K+) group, there’s also BABS bargain Shane Baz in round 9, with only a $2.00 Risk Cost for inEXperience.

Ohtani swims in the deepest and safest asset group of (ER,KK). There are 11 more options there. Full-timers with Risk Costs of $1.00 or less, in ADP order: Brandon Woodruff (20, $0), Aaron Nola (41, $0), Kevin Gausman (67, $0.50), Joe Musgrove (78, $1.00) and Frankie Montas (89, $1.00). Mid-timers Shane McClanahan (round 8) and Tanner Houck (round 14) have only inEXperience Risk Costs of $2.00.

Logan Webb (ER,k), $4.25, ADP 63, is projected for mid-time IP. There are two other mid-timers in his group: Framber Valdez (142, $3.00) goes nearly six rounds later and Garrett Whitlock (258, $2.25) goes 13 rounds later. Better yet, there’s a full-timer going one round later: Max Fried (72, $1.00).