2022 Points Game Strategies

by Greg Fishwick

Last year’s BABS points strategy article by Pat Cloghessy featured some timeless tips, two of which are excellent starting points for 2022. First, remember to forget about categories. Balancing or punting them doesn’t matter. “(T)he bottom line is — total points are it. Nothing else matters.” Second, study your league’s history to create a total points goal, because “If you do something, even the most rudimentary of league specific analysis, you are likely a step ahead.”

Each point system is different

Once you set your goal for total points to make the playoffs, what’s next? To reach that goal, you must thoroughly understand your league’s point system and use it to your advantage. Be cautious about blindly following generic points rankings or ADPs. Let your opponents blindly believe the adage “pitchers are worth more than hitters in points leagues” without studying the point system they are using.

Liability costs

Most point systems assign negative points, and that’s the first place BABS can help. She’s the only one identifying Skills Liabilities and quantifying Risk Cost. For example, a starting pitcher may have a line of 4 IP, 3 K, 5 ER, 10 H, 3 BB. Assuming +1 for each out and K, and -1 for each ER, H, and BB, you get +15 and -18 for a net total of -3. That performance hurts in roto leagues, but it’s rare that it would cost you more than one point in the category standings.

It’s worse in a point system, because the overall points gap widens when your players’ poor performances are compared with opponents’ decent-to-dominating performances. Returning to our example and including five points for a Win, a line of 6 IP, 5 K, 1 W, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB gives your opponent +28 -11 = 17. But because of your SP’s net -3 points, the differential is 20 points, not just 17.

BABS’ skills liabilities are important to monitor. Depending upon the values your point system assigns to HR, TB, or XBH, avoid hitters who lack Power (-P). Most point systems award points for Hits, so avoid low-BA hitters saddled with (-A). On the pitching side, most point systems award two points for strikeouts—one for the strikeout itself and one for 1/3 IP—so (-K) hurlers can cost you. And ineffective (-E) pitchers are worst of all, because most systems subtract points for ER, BB, and Hits allowed, which are all part of Pitching Effectiveness. No way Marco Gonzales (-EK) should be on a points-league draft list—EEEK!

BABS’ reveals the following skills liabilities for some popular players, making them less attractive targets:

DJ LeMahieu (-P)
Jean Segura (-P)
Raimel Tapia (-P)

Hunter Renfro (-A)
Matt Chapman (-A)
Garrett Hampson (-A)

Adam Wainwright (-K)
Aaron Civale (-K)
Casey Mize (-K)

Joe Barlow (-E)
Josiah Gray (-E)
Jesus Luzardo (-E)

Who to target in 2022

Like most adages, there is some truth to “pitchers are worth more than hitters in points leagues.” But here, worth does not always equal value—at least as defined by salary cap cost or draft round ADP. Instead, use ADP to gauge market perception of scarcity. That’s how to find the best targets in the player pool. ADP from points contests most like yours is more useful than category-based ADP, but any ADP is a good proxy for general perception of scarcity. To hone in, sort NFBC ADP for points leagues.

In his 2022 Baseball Forecaster, Ron Shandler points out trends in MLB affecting the valuing of players who can produce certain stats. For hitting, there’s still plenty of HR to be had, but SB are becoming more scarce. That’s where knowing your point system is important. While others think they need those scarce SBs and over-reach for the few hitters at the top of BABS’s Speed Asset, you can score more points with Power Asset hitters. Full-timers Trea Turner (S+,A+) at ADP 2 and Starling Marte (S+,AV) at ADP 29 are excellent examples. Notwithstanding Marte’s Risk Cost of $3.50, many point systems would prefer Jose Ramirez (PW,s,AV,*) at ADP 4 and Trevor Story (PW,SB,a) at ADP 40, respectively.

In pursuit of pitching, beware of 2022 trends — increasing injuries and decreasing individual IP, Wins, and Saves. Those trends are reflected in ADP, so again, use ADP to gauge market perception of scarcity. Use BABS to target full-time SP (to get IP points) with (E) and (K) Assets (to avoid ER, H, and BB penalties) and low Risk Cost. For example, though neither has any Risk Costs, note that full-timer Gerrit Cole (ER,K+) at ADP 8 is being taken before mid-timer Corbin Burnes (E+,K+), despite Burnes having the edge in Pitching Effectiveness.

Then seek relievers with the most Assets and use BABS’ (Sv) Asset column to find those most likely to gain points with that coveted commodity. A great target in that pool is Ryan Pressly (E+,K+,SV) with no Risk Cost. His ADP is 71, but he has a profile identical to Josh Hader, who also has no Risk Cost at ADP 35, and Raisel Iglesias, who has a negligible $0.25 Risk Cost at ADP 56.

Next, cycle back to the mid-time SP with some Assets, recognizing that you may have to take on some Risk Cost, but knowing that it’s better to take on some risk than to roster skills liabilities. In this pool you will find two mid-timers in the (ER,KK) asset group and Risk Costs of $1.25 — Trevor Rogers at ADP 93 and Charlie Morton at ADP 96.

Finally, remember that highly-skilled relievers can rack up both Wins and Saves. MLB managers have been increasing their roles in leverage situations and spreading those Wins and Saves across more pitchers. A good target here is Giovanny Gallegos (ER,K+, sv-) with a Risk Cost of $1.25 at ADP 112.

Parting point No. 1: The *

The asterisk Asset column indicates hitters who get a boost in OBP leagues by taking walks in 10 percent or more of their plate appearances. If your league rewards walks, target those guys. Full-time first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (PW,AV,*) with no Risk Cost is our poster boy here at ADP 51.

Parting point No. 2: Maximize multi-position eligibility

Multi-position players help avoid negative points. If a player slumps, gets injured, is left in the manager’s dog house or sent to the minors, his negative scores or zeroes can create that double-whammy where your opponents are putting up positive points. Multi-position players provide flexibility to maximize your bench or FAAB. Among the top multi-position players are Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis, Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, and Jorge Polanco, with another dozen further down the rankings. The 2022 Baseball Forecaster lists all multi-position players on page 282.