The Early Risk Exposure of Each Seed in 2022

If you have the opportunity to select your draft seed and want to minimize your risk, are some seeds better than others?

Since only eight of 15 first-rounders could be considered low-risk, then there are limited paths to risk mitigation. Obviously, every draft is different, so you might still be able to avoid the mines by deft side-stepping, but if your draft goes close to chalk, this is what you would be facing. Drawing from the current NFBC ADPs, here are your 15 potential paths through the first four rounds and their total risk costs if they went chalk.

Seed 1: Trea Turner is the obvious choice here, but from there it gets murky. You’ll have to hope that Marcus Semien or Whit Merrifield drops to you in Rd 2 because the only low-risk options at the front-end of the third round are closers Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader (four of the first five picks in that round are higher risk). You’ll probably be able to grab Kevin Gausman in Rd 4. All in all, not a great path. Chalk Cost = $11.00

Seed 2: You’ll have the chance to grab Semien or Merrifield in Rd 2 and some decent options in Rd 4, but Rds 1 and 3 are risky. Fernando Tatis is where you’d start. In Rd 3, you’d have to grab a closer. Nick Castellanos is the chalk option in Rd 4, but Gausman and Raisel Iglesias could be there too. Chalk Cost = $6.00

Seed 3: This is perhaps the only perfectly clean path through all four rounds, but only if you’re okay with drafting an early closer. Juan Soto first, then either Semien or Merrifield in Rd 2, Hendriks in Rd 3, and then your choice of Raisel Iglesias (if a dual closer strategy floats your boat), or better, Pete Alonso. Chalk Cost = $0.25

Seed 4: Nearly identical to Seed 3, if things fall your way. Open with Jose Ramirez. Then grab one of the two infielders (or Cedric Mullins, if he’s still there), take the closer (likely Hader at this point) and wrap up with Alonso. But things have to fall right. Otherwise… Chalk Cost = $5.25

Seed 5: Mullins in Rd 2 is the only low-cost chalk option. Otherwise, you start with Bo Bichette and then there will be a bunch of bobbing and weaving. Chalk Cost = $11.25

Seed 6: Vlad Guerrero is your first-rounder and then there are potholes. You’ll have to hope for Mullins or Manny Machado to fall to you in Rd 2, and then take Hader or maybe Sandy Alcantara in Rd 3. You’d have to reach a bit for Freddy Peralta or JT Realmuto in Rd 4. Otherwise… Chalk Cost = $11.00

Seed 7: Here is where you’d have to make a decision about Shohei Ohtani. He’s a good pick if you can keep him in your lineup, but not as much if you lose the bat when he pitches. Machado and Alcantara are solid chalk picks for Rds 2 and 3, but then you’d have to reach here too for Peralta or Realmuto in Rd 4. Chalk Cost = $2.00 or 7.00, depending on how you use Ohtani

Seed 8: You can open with Gerrit Cole here, but then there’s a ton of risk if the draft goes chalk. If you wanted to go full bonkers and draft four low-risk arms, then Zack Wheeler, Alcantara and Peralta may all be there (and Jake deGrom!), but otherwise, you’ll need some prayer. Chalk Cost = $15.25

Seed 9: This is a nearly spotless path. It starts with Bryce Harper at the top and then Wheeler in Rd 2. You should be able to grab Trevor Story or Matt Olson in Rd 3 and then take Peralta in Rd 4. Chalk Cost = $3.50

Seed 10: Another nice path with a little luck, it begins with Corbin Burnes. If Freddy Freeman drops in Rd 2, take him, otherwise Wheeler could give you pocket aces. Story in Rd 3 and Realmuto in Rd 4 make for a really nice quartet to start things off. Chalk Cost = $5.00

Seed 11: Opening with Kyle Tucker (who still has a minor Experience liability) is not bad, with Freeman in Rd 2 and Nola in Rd 3 helping to mitigate any risk. Wander Franco is the chalk pick for Rd 4, which is problematic, but grabbing Austin Riley instead makes this a fine path. Chalk Cost = $5.00

Seed 12: From this point on, all the first-round picks are troublesome, so any late seeds will have to work hard to minimize their risk in the subsequent rounds. Here, there are those who have perfect faith in Ronald Acuna’s return from injury, and for them, this is an otherwise low-risk path. Follow him up with Brandon Woodruff, Olson and Riley for a solid top 4. Chalk Cost = $5.25

Seed 13: The chalk path here is riddled with uncertainty. Mookie Betts starts it off, followed by Luis Robert (grab Woodruff or Freeman instead). Xander Bogaerts is solid in Rd 3, but pass on Chris Sale in Rd 4 and opt for Riley or Paul Goldschmidt instead. Chalk Cost = $15.25

Seed 14: This is an interesting path. It starts with risky Mike Trout, but if you go chalk, it’s clear sailing after that. Rafael Devers in Rd 2, Robbie Ray in Rd 3 and Goldschmidt in Rd 4 provide a nice cross -section of positional coverage. Chalk Cost = $5.75

Seed 15: The chalk path would have you draft Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer at the wheel – both higher risk – but I’d take Devers ahead of one of them. Pass on Francisco Lindor in Rd 3 and take Tyler O’Neil, then finish with Goldschmidt or Riley. Chalk Cost = $10.25

Again, every draft will present different options, but given that many drafters rely on the ADPs, it’s good to know where the landmines are.