2021 Asset Group Analysis – (p,a)

by Doug Gruber

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

 

(p,a)
ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
37 $22 Realmuto,J.T. C PHI F p a INJ
37 $22 Arenado,Nolan 3 STL F p a Rg+ Nw Pk-
68 $16 Torres,Gleyber S NYY F p a
73 $15 Conforto,Michael O NYM F p a * Rg-
124 $10 Correa,Carlos S HOU F p a
128 $10 Bryant,Kris 3 CHC F p a Rg+
137 $9 D Arnaud,Travis C ATL M p a Rg-
156 $8 Bell,Josh 1D WAS F p a * Nw
158 $8 Santander,Anthony O BAL F p a inj- e
167 $7 Murphy,Sean C OAK M p a * INJ EX
197 $6 Pollock,A.J. O LAD F p a
198 $6 Walker,Christian 1 ARZ M p a e
201 $6 Walsh,Jared 1 LAA F p a Rg+ EX
217 $5 Grichuk,Randal O TOR M p a
224 $4 Ohtani,Shohei D LAA M p a Rg+ e
280 $2 Tellez,Rowdy 1 TOR M p a inj- e
291 $2 Escobar,Eduardo 3 ARZ F p a Rg+
299 $2 Reynolds,Bryan O PIT F p a Rg+ e
328 $1 Puig,Yasiel O FA P p a
336 $0 Dickerson,Alex O SFG M p a e
336 $0 Aguilar,Jesus 1D MIA P p a *
361 $0 Votto,Joey 1 CIN F p a * Rg+ Ag
541 $(3) Cabrera,Asdrubal 1 ARZ M p a Nw Pk-

Players from this asset group bring a blend of moderate power and batting skills. Traditionally the value for players of this skill set begins to emerge after round 10 but becomes especially attractive when we reach picks 200 and beyond. This year is no exception.

Players at the top of a group are often overpriced and here is no exception. You can probably pass on the first two names. Yes, we know catchers are scarce, but there are two other catchers here, one of whom is available more than 100 picks later. Nolan Arenado does not live at Coors anymore, and his current BABS rating reflects as such. Even Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant (pictured) may seem tempting at their ADPs, since they have never been this low, but there are several more skillful bats available in rounds 8-9 from higher rated asset groups.

As we hit rounds 11-12, Josh Bell and Anthony Santander make for solid selections who should offer full time at bats, and Sean Murphy brings two-category skills to the catcher position at a huge discount to the similarly skilled JT Realmuto.

As we venture to the bottom half of the group, numerous profit potential sources can be found. There are 13 players available from pick 200 to the reserve round, including several who are projected to be full-timers. This group is nearly clean regarding injury risk, and quite a few are contenders for positive regression based on unfortunate outcomes during 2020.

Need a corner infielder? There are a number of appealing options here, including Eduardo Escobar and Joey Votto, who can be acquired at pick 300 or later. Both should be fixtures in the top half of their respective lineups.

For outfielders, the market seems to be disregarding the recent production of A.J. Pollock and Randal Grichuk. Both earned over $20 a year ago yet are available around pick 200. Further down, Brian Reynolds has been nearly forgotten based on his 2020 season; BABS tells us the pop and batting average skills that he displayed in his rookie season are still there. And the Giants’ Alex Dickerson quietly posted 10 HRs and a near .300 BA, but the market doesn’t seem interested as he is available well after Round 20.

Finally, Asdrubal Cabrera has earned double-digit value for five straight seasons and should find plenty of opportunities in Arizona but somehow is going unselected in many contests.

This is a handy group to keep in your back pocket as your draft hits the halfway point. Lots of good values here.