2021 Firstbasemen

(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

This is first base, home to run-producing sluggers. Big power, right? Well…yes, but…

Big power skills in this 2021 crop do come with some bit of wariness. Forget Freddie Freeman, it’s him and then everyone else. BABS displays this, as does the early drafting marketplace. 

Here are the BABS ratings for first basemen who will potentially provide positive value to your team:

ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
13 $33 Freeman,Freddie 3 ATL F PW A+ *              
62 $17 Voit,Luke 30 NYY F PW AV     inj-        
58 $18 Alonso,Pete 30 NYM F P+       e      
89 $14 Olson,Matt 3 OAK F P+ *   Rg          
170 $7 Hoskins,Rhys 3 PHI F P+ *     INJ        
185 $7 Mancini,Trey 0 BAL F p s a     INJ        
100 $13 Goldschmidt,Paul 3 STL F PW a *              
363 $0 Cron,C.J. 3 FAA M PW a   Rg INJ        
370 $(0) Belt,Brandon 3 SF F PW a *     INJ       Rg
36 $23 Abreu,Jose 3 CHW F p AV             Rg
100 $13 Rizzo,Anthony 3 CHC F p AV *   Rg          
103 $12 Smith,Dominic 3o7 NYM F p AV       e     Rg
169 $8 Bell,Josh 30 WAS F p a *         Nw    
194 $6 Walker,Christian 30 ARI M p a       e      
194 $6 Walsh,Jared 3 LAA F p a   Rg   EX      
258 $3 Tellez,Rowdy 30 TOR M p a     inj- e      
311 $2 Aguilar,Jesus 30 MIA P p a *              
376 $(0) Votto,Joey 3 CIN F p a *   Rg         Ag  
541 $(4) Cabrera,Asdrubal 350 FAN P p a              
591 $(5) Moreland,Mitch 3 FAN P p a              
236 $4 Dozier,Hunter 3o9 KC F p s *              
56 $18 Guerrero Jr.,Vlad 30 TOR F AV   Rg   e      
281 $3 Gurriel,Yulieski 3 HOU F AV   Rg         Ag  
643 $(6) Smith,Pavin 3o ARI P AV *       EX      
96 $13 Muncy,Max 354 LA F PW *   Rg          
439 $(2) Brosseau,Michael 354 TAM M PW       EX     Rg
192 $6 Sano,Miguel 3 MIN F P+ *     -A          
286 $2 Dalbec,Bobby 3 BOS M P+     -A   EX     Rg
135 $10 Hosmer,Eric 3 SD F a     inj-        
401 $(1) Cooper,Garrett 3 MIA M a     inj- e      
455 $(2) Moran,Colin 3 PIT M a              
286 $2 Santana,Carlos 3 KC F p *   Rg     Nw    
335 $1 Lowe,Nate 3 TEX F p *       EX Nw    
409 $(1) Nunez,Renato 30 FAA P p              
565 $(4) Choi,Ji-Man 3 TAM M p *   Rg inj-        
609 $(5) Santana,Danny 3 FAA P p s   Rg -A INJ        
244 $4 Candelario,Jeimer 35 DET F             Rg
504 $(3) Fuentes,Josh 3 COL M       EX     Rg
678 $(6) Pujols,Albert 30 LAA M             Ag  
397 $(1) White,Evan 3 SEA F PW     -A   EX      

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

Want the big sticks? Might want to bolster that batting average. The big three extreme power profiles (P+) are all bereft of batting effectiveness skills. Pete Alonso (pictured) and Matt Olson reside here. They are not batting average liabilities, per se, but it ain’t their strong suit either. Both will cost a pick in the top 100, with Alonso higher at ADP 58. Rhys Hoskins brings up the rear at ADP 170, but he will be coming back from elbow surgery.

Want batting average coupled with your power (who doesn’t?), BABS offers a fairly plentiful buffet of those skills. Last year’s AL MVP Jose Abreu (p,AV) comes with both, as does Dominic Smith. Both were top shelf options in 2020, with equally premium skills (PW,A+). Is that baked into their draft prices? Was 2020 a continuation of Abreu’s 2019 resurgence? Was it another stop on Smith’s ascendance? For the record, BABS tabs both with regression (Rg) liabilities. But sandwiched in between is Anthony Rizzo, who BABS sees regressing upward after a down 2020.

Luke Voit’s prodigious 2020 (P+,AV) has him high on many draft boards (ADP 62). His 2019 assets (PW) had more data, so the (PW,AV) set for 2021 seems a happy middle. He’s about the 6th first baseman off the board according to ADP. Of course, you can wait 2-3 rounds and then nab Paul Goldschmidt from the (PW,a) asset group. C.J. Cron and perennial BABS favorite Brandon Belt round out that group. Both are late round “boring vets”. 

The largest 1B asset group goes eight deep (p,a). Here, we see a mixture of playing time projections, only three of them full-timers. As of this writing, there are nine first basemen going inside the top 100 picks. There is a larger than zero chance most teams will be selecting 1B well beyond pick 100. The (p,a) group allows one to acquire multiple skills at a relatively small cost. Josh Bell is the highest rated, per ADP (169). Even if he cannot regain his 2019 form (p,AV), there is still room for profit at that price. Mid-timer Christian Walker is close enough to full-time at bats that a pick in the 190s is extremely reasonable. In fact, Jared Walsh gives you identical skills at the identical ADP and tosses in full-time PAs and some positive regression potential. Rowdy Tellez has long had BABS’ eye, though FT at-bats could be on the squeeze as Toronto continues to add offensive talent. 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. (AV) continues to trade on his lofty prospect status. His 56 ADP belies anything he’s ever produced at the Major League level. Buying him at that price is hoping he’ll finally deliver. It’s not crazy to think he will start to bring that ground ball rate down, but he hasn’t done it yet. In fact, 2020 (pass the salt) was a step in the wrong direction for Valddy Jr.’s GB%. Would you pay that price for a similarly skilled Yuli Gurriel? The market won’t, yet BABS sees both as comparable. 

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.