60-Game Impact – BATTERS

by Pat Cloghessy

We’re back. For now, at least. A tempered excitement has seeped into the fantasy baseball community. Changes abound, and BABS has kept tabs on everything. Hopefully she can sheperd our teams to the greenest of pastures.

There are new developments across the batting landscape. Scheduling has almost everything to do with it. The Rockies, for example, will be playing away games in a far higher percentage of pitcher-friendly parks than they ever have. As a result, David Dahl’s assets have suffered a dramatic downgrade. In March, Dahl was a popular breakout pick (PW,AV), but now projects to a (p,a) skill set. 

Cody Bellinger has entered into the top 3 ADP, thanks to doubt in Mike Trout’s availability for a full sprint’s worth of at-bats. According to BABS, Bellinger’s power asset has dipped from (P+) to (PW). Max Muncy received the same treatment, from (P+) to (PW). The spacious ballparks of the West divisions rear their ugly heads here as well.

Conversely, Nelson Cruz will not play any teams in the west. He will instead crossover against NL Central pitching staffs and visit places like Wrigley and American Family Fields. Cruz’ power asset has gotten a jolt from (PW) to (P+). In the same division, Jorge Soler’s projected assets have also benefited. Adding (a) to his (PW), Soler (PW,a) is now grouped with the likes of Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson, instead of Matt Chapman and Giancarlo Stanton.

The NL East also looks like a good place to mine for batters. It seems that games against teams like Toronto and Baltimore have a positive effect. Ozzie Albies (pictured) adds power to his already strong set of skills, going from (SB,AV) to (p,SB,AV). His ADP has moved up 5 spots from 37 to 32. Triple-threat batters often serve as cornerstones of championship fantasy squads. Can Albies be that? 

Jeff McNeil’s ADP has actually fallen a tick (from 86 to 95), while his lone BABS asset has strengthened. McNeil’s batting average is his best quality, and it is now projected as elite (A+), rising from (AV). McNeil’s teammate, Amed Rosario also sees his batting effectiveness elevated in the latest database release. Rosario’s previous assets (SB,a) now sit at (SB,AV), which is Whit Merrifield and Tim Andserson territory. The NL East strikes again. 

Playing in the NL Central also has its perks, as Javy Baez’ batting effectiveness asset has jumped to (AV) from (a). This places Baez firmly alongside the hefty trio of Betts, Lindor and Jose Ramirez in the (p,s,AV) asset group. Tommy Edman’s March assets (p,SB,a) have morphed into an Albies-esque (p,SB,AV). Edman’s ADP is fairly steady. It was 135 in March, it’s now 129. Almost 100 picks later than Albies. 

Kyle Schwarber’s value could be set to skyrocket. He’s double-dipped in the positive change bucket, with games against Central division foes and additional playing time with the arrival of the National League DH. Schwarbs’ skills have vaulted from (PW) to (P+,a), which is Pete Alonso/Aaron Judge/Matt Olson territory. Kyle’s ADP has risen from 143 in March, to 117 since July 1st. The market is in on it. But are they really? Those other big bats in his new asset group don’t last beyond pick 59 (Judge). 

Bo Bichette received a ton of attention in February and March, particularly in this space. His (p,SB,AV) mix was seen as undervalued relative to his ADP (67). After 40 NFBC drafts in the month of July, Bichette’s ADP is 45. Bichette’s BABS ratings for the upcoming sprint: (SB,AV). The schedule has damaged Bo’s projections. The talent is still there, but the state of affairs has cooled BABS’ excitement, at least a little.

It appears the changes to the BABS database are a combination of movements toward favorable/detrimental conditions, coupled with the particular players affected sitting near the boundaries of asset classifications. In most cases, it probably did not take a major shift to move the needle one way or the other. Remember, the assets are all tabulated relative to the rest of the league. So the Chicago Cubs’ seven games in Cincinnati are a lucky break, and turn into an outsized positive given that the schedule is only 60 games. Others in the NL Central will have to go to Pittsburgh twice. Small samples, for sure.

Still, any updated information fed through BABS provides needed context. The margin between fantasy victory and defeat almost promises to be razor-thin. The entire season will be a small sample, so any small edge inside this miniature season could prove to be (relatively) gargantuan. 

Incorporating the new data surely beats a static approach, such as trudging forward with our March spreadsheets. There can’t be any shame in that approach, however. Many of us have probably had some difficulty finding motivation to perform simple tasks these past few months, let alone finding the juice that fueled us from January until Opening Day.

Luckily, BABS is here to supply us with fresh guidance. Hopefully it reaches everyone in time for their new drafts. If not, the new data can be figured in trade scenarios and FAAB bids. Either way, we might just get baseball. Let’s hope for safety and ridiculously competitive pennant races and, more importantly (!), crazy fantasy finishes.