The 2020 BABS Longshot Caucus

For many years when I was at BaseballHQ.com, we conducted what I called a Longshot Caucus. In this exercise, a bunch of staff writers looked at situations where a few conditional possibilities might open up the opportunity for a surprise performance. It was a fun exercise that often hit on some unexpected breakouts or breakdowns.

So I’ve asked Doug and Pat to send over a few of their own, and along with some of my speculations, we have a nice little pool of “maybes.”

From BaseballHQ.com (updated): “…we run into trouble every year, grounding future expectations in past realities. And so, we are blindsided by the surprises. Last year becomes the starting point for this year, and everything that happens is grounded in (2019. But 2020 is not an extension of 2019). It’s a new beginning.

“If we look at each season as a blank slate, we immediately open up more possibilities. If we start the year completely fresh, unbiased by past history, then anything can happen. (Dee Gordon) can hit 30 HRs. (Nelson Cruz) can steal 40 bases. The (Tigers) and (Giants) can meet in the World Series.

“Of course, these possibilities are pretty far-fetched because there are certain realities that we still have to buy into. But, if we can manage to toss off some of the shackles of preconception, to consider more “what-ifs” and contingencies, then we can better prepare ourselves for the surprises.”

And so, here we are. Enjoy.

Nick Anderson (ER,K+,sv-) will save 45 games. When Emilio Pagan was sent to San Diego, Anderson became Tampa’s presumptive closer, but the ADPs have been slow to push him up. While the Rays like to mix and match, his extreme skills might force them to lock him into the 9th inning.

Chris Archer (KK) will stay healthy, K 200. Injuries piled up in recent years, but none were arm related. Archer stays away from his sinker again in 2020 and it continues to pay dividends.

Andrew Benintendi (s,a) will go for 20/20. He took a step back last season, but he’s still young and has the leadoff spot all to himself. Reports out of Sox camp had him hitting the ball hard this spring. Benintendi still owns the skills that earned him a $30 season in 2018 and a 20/20 year in 2017.

Franchy Cordero (PW,SB) will have a 20/20 season. BABS has always rated Cordero as having an intriguing power and speed skill set; however, injuries and a crowded San Diego outfield have prevented much playing time. Cordero appears to be healthy, and with the departures of Reyes, Renfroe and Margot, it appears that Trent Grisham is his biggest competition. Looking at BABS’ opinion, it appears to be “Advantage Cordero” when you compare his significant skills to Grisham’s absence of assets.

David Dahl (PW,AV) will hit 30 home runs, steals 15 bases, and hits .300. Dahl (pictured) has always flashed an impressive skill set but injuries have shortened his last three seasons. Last year in 100 games Dahl hit 15 home runs with a .302 BA. As a rookie, Dahl was rated by BABS as also owning extreme speed (S+). Reports from Rockies camp say Dahl looks to be in great shape and may hit leadoff, which could provide plentiful SB base opportunities to go along with his power and average.

Yu Darvish (e,KK) will earn less than $15 this season. Darvish had a phenomenal second half in 2019, causing fantasy owners to now bid him up into Round 3-4 territory. But Darvish also had this first half… 2 wins, 4.98 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while averaging barely five innings per start. The prior season, Darvish missed nearly the entire season, and when he was pitching, he had similar numbers to his first half of 2019. In 2020, the strikeout rate will continue but the ratios and the innings will be disappointing.

Lewin Diaz (P+,AV) will lead the Marlins in HR. A franchise favorite, Diaz will supplant Jesus Aguilar and move Garret Cooper to the OF. The Miami youth movement gets off and running with Lewin as one of the lead dogs.

Zac Gallen (e,k) will record 200 strikeouts with an ERA around 3.00. A year ago, Gallen pitched 172 innings between AAA, Miami and Arizona, including 80 at the big-league level. In each of his 15 major league starts, he gave up three runs or fewer. Walks were an issue last season but Gallen has a prior history of outstanding command and has displayed the ability to miss bats. This year Gallen puts it all together.

Yuli Gurriel (AV) will regress back to 2018. BABS doesn’t believe in last year’s power spike at all, and Statcast metrics concur. With his launch angle and exit velocity, he should have hit no more than 15 home runs.

Bryce Harper (PW,a) will have a season reminiscent of 2015. That year, Harper earned $40 and had a stat line of 42/99/.330 with 118 runs and 6 SBs. Without a doubt, each year since he has disappointed his fantasy owners who have drafted him as a first rounder. But last year around August 1, Harper seemed to finally settle into his Philly role and mega-contract, and this spring he looks, and sounds, primed for a monster season. Harper’s batting average will fall well short of his .330 BA of 2015, but he will offset that decline with 40+ HRs, 220+ RBIs/runs along with 15-20 steals.

Kyle Hendricks (e) will win the NL ERA title (again). This spring, Hendo’s velocity was the highest it’s been since 2016. That was also the season he won the ERA crown and finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting. Hendricks’ ability to limit hard contact has always helped his surface stats outpace the metrics. The added velo will only help. When he’s on, it’s Maddux-esque.

Kenta Maeda (e,KK) will win 20 games. The Dodgers manipulation of their pitching rotation cut into Maeda’s innings, but now with Minnesota, he has a clear path to playing time. Backed by the Twins’ great hitting and in a weak division, he could soar.

Francisco Mejia ( ) will put up the type of season we were expecting a year ago. Last year, he was projected to push 20 HRs but got off to a horrible start and finished with just eight. However, he batted .295 in the second half, in limited action, including a 4-HR, .348 August. Recency bias has left him at ADP 234, which could represent big profit for a potential Top 5 backstop.

AJ Puk (e,KK) will earn more R$ than Jesus Luzardo (ER,k|EX). Both Puk and Luzardo appear positioned for a spot in the A’s rotation. But this projection is based more on volume than on differences in skill sets. The 22-year-old Luzardo logged only 43 innings a year ago and likely will have an innings cap in the 100 IP range. Puk is now 2 years removed from his Tommy John surgery and seems built to handle a larger workload. The market is putting its bet on Luzardo but a wager on Puk will deliver a superior return over the full season.

Garrett Richards (k) will pitch 150 innings and deliver sizeable profit. Richards has not had a full season since his 2015 campaign with the Angels. The four years since have been lost due to injuries, including TJS. BABS used to rate Richards as having a double asset skill set. Richards hinted as having regained his form during his brief September appearances, and this spring he has yet to allow a run. The Padres gave him $16M last year for one reason…to essentially pitch just this 2020 season. He will make his real team and his fantasy owners happy.

Miguel Sano (P+) will lead the AL with 50 home runs. Last year Sano hit 34 bombs in only 380 at bats and had a crazy 37% HR/fb ratio. But is it so crazy? BABS says his power skills are extreme, and a move across the diamond to first base should help keep him in the lineup. With 550 or more ABs, 50 is certainly within his reach.

Giancarlo Stanton (PW) and Gary Sanchez (PW) combined will hit fewer than 50 home runs. Yes, this is a prediction based more on lack of health than lack of power skills. In 2017, this duo hit 92 HRs between them, but since then the number has fallen to 60 and then only 37 a year ago. Stanton missed virtually the whole 2019 campaign and is already down with another injury this pre-season. Sanchez has missed nearly 100 games over the last two seasons and this spring has been shelved after catching back-to-back games. At least one of the two will be infuriating, perhaps both.

Myles Straw (S+|-P) will steal 30 bases. He is stuck in the Houston depth chart behind injury-prone players like Carlos Correa and Josh Reddick, and unproven Kyle Tucker. But the fact that he can play multiple positions – and he’s batting over .400 this spring – could help open up playing time.

Brandon Woodruff (ER,KK) will be a top 10 NL pitcher. Woodruff has what it takes on the skills side…premium velocity, control, dominance, high GB%, to go with the look of an ace. What he hasn’t had is a season with more than 120 innings. This is the year he combines great stuff with a full workload, establishing himself as one of the most forceful hurlers in the National League.