Spring training developments that may or may not matter by the time games resume

by Doug Gruber

Several position battles were starting to come into focus when camps closed. Others are still very uncertain and might remain as such even after the season starts, whenever that is. Here is a look at some of the most noteworthy situations and the impact these might have on playing time and draft positions.

LA DODGERS ROTATION

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts indicated that the last two spots in the rotation would go to Julio Urias (e,k|e) and Alex Wood (e,k|INJ).

Urias missed all of 2018 after shoulder surgery but last season he seemed healthy, regained his velocity and his ratios were impressive (2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). But Urias only logged 80 innings as a spot starter and reliever, bringing into question how many innings can we expect from him in 2020? His draft position had been around ADP 150, but this current news has caused a jump into the Round 8-9 range, which is expensive for a pitcher who has never reached mid-timer territory.

Reports on Wood suggest he has reworked his mechanics at Driveline over the winter and has added velocity to his fastball. Before this news, Wood’s ADP was around 400. Since then it has jumped more than 125 picks, and in some drafts as high as the 15th round, which given the comparable skill set between he and Urias, Wood may still be the better draft day value, even with the INJ risk.

The losers of this announcement included Ross Stripling (e,k|INJ) and Dustin May (e|-K,EX), who have seen their ADPs fall by nearly 100 spots. Given the Dodgers track record of using multiple arms in their rotation during the season, both may get their shot at some point this year.

NY YANKEES ROTATION

To begin the season, GM Brian Cashman indicated that JA Happ (k|-E) and Jordan Montgomery (k|INJ,e) are ticketed for the 3rd and 4th starters in the Yankees rotation, while the fifth position remains up in the air, including use of an opener given the quality and depth of the Yankees pen.

As a result, Montgomery’s draft value has skyrocketed from being undraftable in 15-team leagues to a recent ADP in the 20th round, and in some cases as early as the 16th. Happ has moved up also, from a reserve round pick to a current ADP in the Round 20-21 range.

Jonathan Loaisiga (KK|INJ,EX), Domingo German (KK|inj-,e) – who still has 63 games remaining on his suspension – and Chad Green (ER,K+|e) have all seen their recent ADPs climb Into the 23-25 round territory as drafters are speculating on who the winner might be.

The timing of the resumption of play could feed into this scenario as both James Paxton and German may be closer to reactivation at that point.

HOUSTON ROTATION

Justin Verlander (ER,K+|INJ) was diagnosed with a lat strain, and more recently a groin injury, which would have pushed his debut back several weeks, creating a vacancy in the Astros rotation. However, with the season opener delayed, Verlander may recover enough to resume his role. But if he’s not ready, it seems that Josh James (K+|inj-,e) is now the favorite to lock down the rotation spot. BABS rates James as having extreme strikeout skills and perhaps he becomes more valuable if his playing time projections increase. James is off to a decent start this spring, striking out 8 in his first 8 innings with a .162 BAA and WHIP of 0.92. The market has also pushed James’s ADP up considerably, rising nearly ten rounds to his current price around ADP 220.

NY YANKEES OUTFIELD

The injury news on Aaron Judge (P+,a|INJ) and Giancarlo Stanton (PW|INJ) have adversely impacted their draft positions. Judge’s diagnosis of a cracked rib has caused his ADP to fall from the 2nd round to at least the 7th and sometimes lower. Stanton didn’t move as much, from the fourth round to the sixth.

Other Yankees jumped significantly based on this news. No clear statements have been made regarding replacements, but the market has escalated Miguel Andujar (AV|INJ,e), Mike Tauchman (p,AV|inj-,EX) and Clint Frazier (p|inj-,EX), with a slight nudge to Luke Voit (PW,a|inj-,e) and Giovanny Urshela (AV|inj-,e), whose starting positions now seem more solid.

BABS rates Tauchman as having the best skills among those mentioned. Last year when provided the opportunity Tauchman filled in admirably with a slash of 13/47/.277 and 6 SBs in just under 300 PAs. His stock has risen from late reserve round to the 20-21 range. Both Urshela and Andujar have put up one terrific season each. Andujar in 2018: 27/92/.297 and Urshela in 2019: 21/74/.314. Both could now be starters if Andujar sticks in LF, and either can be acquired around ADP 230-250. Clint Frazier’s ADP has jumped nearly 100 spots to around the 23rd round.

Of course, all this changes if the season is delayed long enough for Judge and Stanton to recover.

ST. LOUIS OUTFIELD

Dylan Carlson (p,s,a|EX) is certainly making his case to be a starter in St. Louis. His spring training highlights include a .313 BA, .905 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. Will it be enough? None of the other contenders are showing much thus far. Look at these spring numbers from his competition… Dexter Fowler (p) 3-for-31, 12 Ks; Tyler O’Neill (p|-A,e) 7-for-32, 14Ks; and Harrison Bader (p,SB|-A,e) 8-for-35, 15 Ks. BABS rates Carlson as superior to his competition, and in fact places him in an asset class along with Javier Baez and Ramon Laureano, among others. And the market has taken notice, as his ADP has risen from 300+ into the 250 range over the last two weeks, a price which will shoot much higher if Carlson is named as a starter.

LA DODGERS OUTFIELD

With the cancellation of the Joc Pederson (PW|inj-) trade to the Angels, the Dodgers outfield has again become crowded where both Pederson and AJ Pollock (p,s,a|INJ) are battling for the LF position. The Dodgers have made no definitive announcements, partly because Pederson has yet to be able to throw from the outfield. But the market consensus appears to be that Peterson will be the playing time winner, causing Pollock’s ADP to fall about 100 spots. BABS places the triple-asset Pollock in a much higher asset group and says an investment in Pollock near the reserve rounds should yield a profit, especially if his second half numbers carry forward to 2020.

CLEVELAND OUTFIELD

Going into this spring, the only Indians outfielder who seemed to be a sure starter was Oscar Mercado (SB|inj-,EX). But now he recently went down with a wrist injury diving for a ball in the outfield. Fortunately, Mercado’s MRI says it’s just a sprain but his status remains in doubt. Franmil Reyes (PW|e) is having a great spring but he seems destined for the DH role, leaving the outfield wide open. Unfortunately, none of the other outfielders have capitalized on the opportunity. If we look at the contender group made up of Jordan Luplow (p,a|inj-EX), Domingo Santana (p|-A,inj-), Delino DeShields (SB|-PA), Bradley Zimmer (SB|-A,INJ,EX), Jake Bauers (-|-A,e) and Greg Allen (SB|-P,e), their combined spring stats are 25-for-139 for an alarming .180 BA, with 2 HRs and 3 SBs. DeShields is high amongst the group at a paltry .227. This outfield contest is still anybody’s guess, although BABS gives an overall edge to Luplow with his superior asset rating for at least one of the positions.

INJURIES AND ADPs

Let’s also look at some pitchers who have outstanding skills but came into this season with significant injury risk. This table shows the changes in ADP from early drafts compared to drafts over the last two weeks.

Player	1-Feb	15-Mar
Mike Clevinger	23	38
Blake Snell	26	71
Chris Sale	32	135
Luis Severino	61	999
James Paxton	62	160
Carlos Carrasco	89	138

What do we make of the current ADPs? Severino is out for the season, so that’s an easy one. Clevinger’s ADP fell as far as 78 during February but has recently moved back up based on news of his recovery being ahead of schedule. Sale dropped into the 200s when the words “Tommy John” were attached to him, but he has settled around ADP 135 with the recent more favorable diagnosis.

BABS reminds us that all pitchers with a significant injury risk designation (INJ) have at least a 50% chance of missing significant time during the season. Are these players any more of an injury risk now based on recent news than they were in January/February? BABS might suggest the market was ignoring her warnings and has moved these pitchers closer to the prices where they should have been valued to begin the year.