How to navigate BABS in these changing times

Navigating injuries

This pre-season, I have been inundated with emails about how difficult it is to meet the liability limitations – the BABS risk budget – especially on the injury side. Generally, I have been able to avoid most high-risk players, but meeting the rigid limitations has been particularly tough this year.

My general advice has been that BABS is just a tool and do the best you can. But I decided to see whether anything has changed this year. It has.

In 2018, about 27 percent of the player population entered the season with an injury liability – either (inj-) or (INJ). Last year, that rate ticked up to 29 percent. This year, we’re up to about 32.5 percent – 34 percent on the batting side, 31 percent on the pitching side. With these rising rates, it’s no wonder that we’re missing our targets.

My general advice remains – BABS is still just a tool. And so, since she’s also pretty flexible, I can suggest that you might consider counting minor injury risk (inj-) as half a liability. I am comfortable with this because the parameters for that minor mark are pretty liberal. I would be far more worried about those players where (INJ) is shouting at you in all caps.

Also, as noted in this earlier Mailbag, we should probably be more concerned with risk at the front of the draft. That’s something you have control of.

Navigating the delay to the season

The delay to the 2020 season will likely have some real impacts on BABS, but much of it comes back to injuries. Those players who are rehabbing current injuries may be healthier once play resumes. Those who were in line for elevated playing time as early replacements for those hurt players may be facing sharp reductions in PAs and IP. In turn, the door may be closing on the chance for some choice rookies to prove themselves in the earlygoing.

I will not be changing the injury liability ratings regardless of when play resumes, because we still will not know who is healthy for sure, and the risks remain. That’s why the relaxing of the budget constraints above is the best way to handle this. Consider minor injury risk (inj-) as half a liability against your budget.

The shifts in playing time will likely force some adjustments, so I anticipate that there will be an update to the database and spreadsheet once we get closer to the real Opening Day.