Extreme single-asset hitters

(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

The highest asset rating for BABS identifies Extreme (+) skills in the top 10 percent, which is reserved for those players who potentially have the greatest impact on your roster. One of the curiosities of those who possess a single extreme skill — and no other above average skills rating — is they have some of the widest ranges of ADPs. They range from 3rd rounders to some with ADPs around 500 and beyond.

 

ADP R$ BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
39 $22 Mondesi,Adalberto S KCR F S+ – INJ e
158 $8 Buxton,Byron O MIN F S+ INJ
178 $7 Hampson,Garrett 2O COL P S+ EX
519 $(3) Margot,Manuel O TBR P S+ Nw
64 $17 LeMahieu,D.J. 231 NYY F A+
128 $10 Brantley,Michael OD HOU F A+
404 $0 Kendrick,Howie 12 WAS M A+ inj- Ag Rg-
31 $24 Alonso,Pete 1 NYM F P+ * e
72 $16 Muncy,Max 213 LAD F P+ *
119 $11 Sano,Miguel 3 MIN F P+ * INJ
365 $0 Hernandez,Teoscar O TOR F P+
495 $(2) Thames,Eric 1 WAS M P+ * Nw

In the (S+) group, the market’s obsession for speed has Adalberto Mondesi being selected in the third round, based mostly on his 43 steals from a year ago. Drafters are setting aside his significant injury risk, as he works his way back from October shoulder surgery, making him questionable for Opening Day. One hundred picks later, Byron Buxton is available, but he also carries injury risk, like he does every season. News of Buxton perhaps being ready by Opening Day has caused his ADP to rise at least two rounds in recent drafts.

Last year, after disappointing his owners for five months, Garrett Hampson did this in September: 5 HRs, 9 SBs, .318 BA. Despite not having a starting position for the Rockies, the market is still selecting him in the 12th round. Though with similar underlying skills, the market is ignoring Manuel Margot, who was traded this winter to the Rays, where they have more outfielders than starting positions available. Margot stole 20 bases a year ago as a short-side platoon and late inning defensive player. BABS says Margot is worth a stash on your reserve roster.

For the (A+) group, there are only three members, all of whom the market is discounting. Despite earning more than $30 a year ago behind a .327 BA, the Yankees’ DJ LeMahieu is available in the fifth round. LeMahieu is one of the few players who has a 2020 ADP well below his actual fantasy value from a year ago. Similarly, Michael Brantley put together a very solid, healthy season (22/90/.311) but his 128 ADP is lower than it was in 2019. He is a worthwhile target at this price. In 2019, Howie Kendrick had arguably his best year of his career, with 17 HRs, 62 RBIs and a .344 average in only 334 ABs, not including his post season heroics. The market has pushed him to a reserve round selection for 2020, likely driven by playing time uncertainty. BABS believes an end game speculation could return considerable value.

Moving to the extreme power guys (P+), NL home run champ Pete Alonso is being selected in the early third round. But BABS lists four other comparable (P+) sluggers, of which two are being taken at the end of drafts, if at all. Going in the 6th round, Max Muncy hit 36 home runs a year ago despite missing time with a broken bone in his wrist, as a nice follow up to his impressive rookie season. The Twins’ Miguel Sano is available in the Round 8-9 range, and his power was on full display a year ago. He hit 34 bombs in only 439 plate appearances after he returned from a heel laceration.

But BABS says the best value comes from two players who are available at the tail end of drafts. Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez hit 26 home runs in less than a full season in 2019, most of which came after he returned from a demotion to the minors. Hernandez is the answer to the poser in the photo above. Also, Eric Thames, an afterthought in most drafts, moves to Washington where he should receive the strong-side platoon at bats at first base. During his three years with the Brewers, Thames averaged a home run every 17 plate appearances. BABS loves the power potential from Hernandez and Thames, and both come essentially for free.

Regarding roster construction, BABS tells us that players with extreme skills count as two assets towards our draft targets. That said, BABS prefers players with multiple skills in order to create a well-balanced roster and not create holes across the categories. Ideally, use the (+) players to fill gaps in your batting categories during your draft, or as reserve round hideaways to deploy during the season if you need help in a specific area.