2020 Asset Group Analysis – (e,KK)
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Asset groups are how BABS assembles players with comparable skills and then reviews how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s is not always the case, It is here where we can uncover numerous opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
(e,KK)
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | * | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk | Rg | |
| 50 | $19 | Giolito,Lucas | SP | CWS | F | e | KK | inj- | |||||||||||
| 55 | $18 | Nola,Aaron | SP | PHI | F | e | KK | ||||||||||||
| 63 | $17 | Darvish,Yu | SP | CHC | F | e | KK | Rg+ | |||||||||||
| 81 | $14 | Bauer,Trevor | SP | CIN | F | e | KK | ||||||||||||
| 99 | $12 | Kluber,Corey | SP | TEX | F | e | KK | Rg+ | INJ | Nw | |||||||||
| 109 | $12 | Carrasco,Carlos | SP | CLE | M | e | KK | Rg+ | INJ | ||||||||||
| 112 | $11 | Ohtani,Shohei | SP | LAA | P | e | KK | INJ | EX | ||||||||||
| 125 | $10 | Lamet,Dinelson | SP | SDP | P | e | KK | INJ | e | ||||||||||
| 132 | $10 | Paxton,James | SP | NYY | P | e | KK | INJ | |||||||||||
| 180 | $7 | Price,David | SP | LAD | M | e | KK | Rg+ | inj- | Nw | |||||||||
| 186 | $6 | Maeda,Kenta | SP | MIN | M | e | KK | Nw | |||||||||||
| 192 | $6 | McCullers,Lance | SP | HOU | P | e | KK | INJ | |||||||||||
| 247 | $4 | Puk,A.J. | SP | OAK | P | e | KK | EX | |||||||||||
| 357 | $0 | Gausman,Kevin | rp | SFG | P | e | KK | Pk+ | Rg+ | INJ | Nw | ||||||||
| 526 | $(3) | Peacock,Brad | rp | HOU | P | e | KK | INJ |
Within the (e,KK) asset group of starting pitchers, the marketplace has done a BABStastic job of separating the wheat from the chaff. The highest-priced are, for the most part, the least risky. Names like Lucas Giolito, Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola have the loftier ADPs. Trevor Bauer also checks in with a clean slate on the liabilities side. The final player in the top 100 ADP to check in with a full-time projection is Corey Kluber, which seems to belie his elevated injury risk.
From here on in, the water gets a bit choppy. Projecting Shohei Ohtani’s playing time and effectiveness is a total crapshoot coming off TJ surgery, though he will be 18 months removed once the season begins. James Paxton is out 3-4 months and Carlos Carrasco is coming off of treatment for leukemia. All three have aggregate ADPs in the low 100s, though Paxton’s is down to about 178 since his back surgery was announced.
Dinelson Lamet is a favorite breakout candidate, and for good reason. Of note: His career-high innings total is 114, back in 2017. David Price’s prospects for a career resurrection seemed to increase with the move to LA. His ADP is up to 161 since the trade. Price’s injury-plagued 2019 masked a career high K/9 and best xFIP since 2016.
One of the best values appears to be Kenta Maeda. At pick 186, with no significant liabilities and skills to match the Nolas and Giolitos of the group, Maeda is a BABS-styled best bet to outperform his draft position. The move the the AL is a consideration, but at that price, bully!
Lance McCullers and A.J. Puk are high-upside part-timers. Each needs to overcome different obstacles to playing time. If McCullers can stay healthy (big IF), and if top prospect Puk can solidify a rotation spot, both could deliver profit.
Also notable is that the (e,KK) asset group is peppered with positive regression candidates. Let those that are scared off by recent ugly surface stats stay scared, and relish the buying opportunities.