60-Game Impact – PITCHERS

(Photo by Ken Murray/icon Sportswire)

by Doug Gruber

Baseball is back! On the pitching side, there are so many questions, such as which starting pitchers are ready to go at least six innings, and which are going to ramp up slowly and be on an innings limit. Let’s look closer at the updated pre-season asset groups.

The number of highly skilled arms has thinned out with season-ending injuries to big names such as Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino, and the recent opt-out by David Price. There are only 22 full-time starting pitchers who possess assets in both pitching effectiveness and strikeouts… less than two available per team. Of the 22, nine have injury or experience risk, leaving only 13 double asset starters who are sans liability.

Here is the complete list of full-time starters with a dual asset skill set and a clean slate on major liabilities:

  1. Gerrit Cole (E+,K+)
  2. Jacob DeGrom (E+,KK)
  3. Walker Buehler (ER,KK)
  4. Jack Flaherty (ER,KK)
  5. Shane Bieber (ER,KK)
  6. Stephen Strasburg (ER,KK)
  7. Luis Castillo (ER,KK)
  8. Patrick Corbin (ER,KK)
  9. Charlie Morton (ER,KK)
  10. Zack Greinke (ER,k)
  11. Yu Darvish (e,KK)
  12. Trevor Bauer (e,KK)
  13. Jose Berrios (e,k)

That’s all of them! If you want one of these highly skilled arms, you will have to invest early and heavily, as ADP suggests that all 13 are being selected before the end of the fifth round. And recent news on DeGrom (back tightness) and Buehler (slow ramp up) suggests that this list may get smaller.

Even if you drop to the mid-time pitchers, there are only four additional starters with dual assets and a liability-free ledger. One of the four is Eduardo Rodriguez who has now been placed on the Covid-IL, making his status for opening day in doubt.

Here is the full accounting for starting pitchers who contribute at least one or more assets and also should deliver full-time or mid-time innings pitched:

Playing With
Time # Assets # Players Liabilities
Full 2 22 9
Full 1 8 4
Mid 2 24 20
Mid 1 16 12
Total 70 45

With only 25 pitchers who contribute positively on the asset side while avoiding liabilities, you will need to prioritize accordingly as you construct your rosters to meet the BABS targets.

Looking closer at some of the asset groups, the (ER,KK) group has many of the enticing arms mentioned earlier. At the bottom of the group are two other interesting names. Lance Lynn (ER.KK), the Rangers likely opening Day starter, has comparable skills that can be acquired more than 60 picks after his bigger name classmates. In addition, Rich Hill (ER,KK), who would have begun the regular season on the IL, appears to be ready to assume a spot in the Twins rotation, and can be acquired in the 13th round or later.

Similar in the (e,KK) asset group, pitchers available at a discount include Kenta Maeda, Lance McCullers (pictured) and AJ Puk. For a late flyer in the reserve rounds, BABS says consider Colin McHugh who is on track for a spot in the Red Sox rotation. Reports indicate he may be nearly recovered from his elbow injury that would have shelved him had the season started in March.

BABS has also identified some part-time skilled pitchers who could provide sneaky value if they were to secure a rotation spot. Some of the more interesting names include Nate Pearson (e,k), Sean Newcomb (k) and Matt Shoemaker (k).

When looking at the updated BABS ratings, spend the time to scroll to the bottom for pitchers with skill sets in the bottom 25 percent of the league. In this shortened season, BABS says “Beware!” of pitchers who could do irreparable damage to your ratios. Examples of pitchers being drafted in nearly all formats include Joe Musgrove (-E), Mike Foltynewicz (-E), Adrian Houser (-E), Anthony DeSclafani (-E), Aaron Civale (-EK) and Sandy Alcantara (-EK), to name a few. Don’t become one of those owners.

Moving on to the closers, BABS currently lists 23 arms who are projected for significant saves. Many of these are some of the most highly skilled arms in the game. At the head of the asset groups for closers are a trio with the top BABS rating of (E+,K+,SV)… Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates and Ken Giles. Several other closers follow only one asset level behind. These names include Taylor Rogers (E+,KK,SV) and the (ER, K+,SV) group which comprises of Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Edwin Diaz and Hector Neris. You may need to monitor the health status for Chapman and Neris, but this group of nine brings significant skills and save opportunities to your rosters.

Even if you missed out on one of these top closers, BABS says the remaining group of SV-rated relievers bring attractive skill sets along with a firm hold on the 9th inning role. And in a 60-game season It is hard to predict how many saves these closers will accumulate.

BABS also lists 18 relief pitchers with a (sv-) rating, reflecting the current indecision in roles at the back end of the bullpen for teams such as St. Louis, Tampa, Miami, Colorado, Seattle and Baltimore. Regardless of the uncertainty, some of these pitchers such as Nick Anderson (ER,K+,sv-), Will Smith (e,K+,sv-) and Giovanny Gallegos (ER,KK,sv-) bring outstanding skills who could help fantasy teams in many ways in this short season, even if they share the closer duties on their respective clubs.

Beyond the identified pitchers who may deliver saves, BABS has highlighted many other skillful bullpen arms who may be worth a roster spot in the later rounds. Players such as Ryan Presley (E+,K+), Dellin Betances (E+,K+), Thomas Kahnle (E+,K+), Austin Adams (ER,K+) and Matt Barnes (ER,K+) are some of the most skillful pitchers in MLB. In a sprint season, these relief pitchers could deliver more fantasy value than many starting pitchers who last fewer than five innings per start or who do not possess the requisite skills to contribute positively to your fantasy squads.