Skills / Risk Market Analysis

Skills / Risk Market Analysis are three tables that help you target target players with the best skills/risk balance at different stages of the draft.

Skills Index and Risk Index: These two new metrics have been added to our analytical arsenal. For each, we set a baseline from the average of the top 350 players in each update and scale everyone else from 100. This provides a quick glance at which players offer the best skills/risk balance. Any player with a positive net is a safe player to draft.

How to read these tables: The Draft Round Market Analysis summarizes the skills/risk balance in the each round. You’ll often find that the market’s perception does not align with the true skills and/or risk of often adjacent rounds. For instance, in an early run of the 2024 database, rounds 15-17 had lower risk and nearly as good skill as rounds 12-14, and round 23 had better options than round 21.

The Top Skills Low Risk table ranks players with the highest Skills Index and lowest Risk Index (typically, Risk Cost under $1), ranked by ADP.  The Top Skills High Risk table ranks players with the highest Skills Index and highest Risk Index (typically, Risk Cost of $3 or over), ranked by ADP.  These lists will help you prioritize players to target or avoid.