2021 Player History Scan: Ketel Marte

The BABS database provides historical scans of each player, going back to 2014. These scans not only chart their statistical output but also how BABS has rated their performance and how the marketplace valued them coming into each season.

This treatment often reveals some underlying trends that the raw statistics fail to discover. Starting with the next update, we’ll look at a bunch of interesting players where BABS might see things a little bit differently from the public narrative.

 

Here is a sample:

Ketel Marte

Team: ARI Eligible: 4

								ASSETS						LIABILITIES							MARKET
Year	Team	Pos	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av	Pk	Rg	Sk	Inj	Ex	Nw	Pk	Ag	Rg	ADP	$$
2015	SEA	4	219	2	8	283	351			SB	AV
2016	SEA	4	437	1	11	259	287	M
2017	ARI	4	223	5	3	260	345			s	a	Pk			inj-	e	Nw				344	$1
2018	ARI	4	520	14	6	260	332	F		SB	a					e					341	$1
2019	ARI	4	569	32	10	329	389	F		SB	A+									Rg	219	$5
2020	ARI	4	181	2	1	287	323	F		SB	AV				inj-						39	$22
PROJ p	ARI	4						F		s	AV										84	$14

The narrative: Marte had been classified as a “growth stock” for several years, but mostly on the promise of his speed game. When he had the moderate power uptick in 2018, people started jumping on his bandwagon. However, his 2019 breakout – especially on the power side – was completely unexpected.

There were some doubters coming into 2020, but his 180-spot jump in the ADPs said there were far more drafters ready to buy in. Third round?? Geez, you had to believe, right? So, what now after 2020’s collapse? The market is a bit off, but even his current 6th round ADP says there are still drafters riding on the hope of 2019.

BABS’ take: When Marte hit 14 home runs in 2018, BABS shrugged. The power skill was still below league average, and given the history, his speed was still where there was upside. What was more curious was when Marte hit 32 homers in 2019… and BABS still shrugged!

If you dug a bit more into the weeds, you would have found that Marte’s 2019 power metrics were a bit too soft to fully buy into the power explosion. He profiles as more of a 15-20 HR bat. However, there are still those latent speed skills, just waiting for a brighter green light to bear more fruit.

Is that worthy of a 6th round pick? Given that he’s in the same asset group as 3rd rounders Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson… it might well be.

Coming February 24: Many more Player History Scans