21-03-10 Mailbag
Do you have a question that would be best answered by me and benefit everyone? Submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line. I’ll select the best ones to respond to in each of the four Game Plan installments.
— Ron
Hey all — I had the opportunity to answer a bunch of BABS questions at last weekend’s First Pitch Florida Online conference. This edition of the Mailbag includes some of those. –rss
I always find BABS useful, despite NEVER being able to meet all the targets. Have you EVER actually been able to reach them? In what league format? How much do you think we need to adjust BABS totals for different league sizes?
When I first developed the system, I set the targets to be accessible in all standard leagues. That was four years ago. During that time, two things happened – first, IL days soared, making it difficult to stay under the limits for injury risk. But also stolen bases dried up while power boomed. So now the speed target is tough to reach, though it’s easier to reach the power target. On the pitching side, the strikeouts target is easier to reach too.
I relented to adjusting the injury target because, honestly, it was getting too depressing to come out of drafts with a pockmarked roster. But I don’t think the asset targets need to be changed because they were never meant to be hard and fast rules. They were always there solely for you to have a goal to shoot for. If you fall short, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve drafted a bad team.
If you need the validation that you’ve done okay, the best way to do it is to plug BABS into your league rosters – RotoLab does that really well. It’s a level playing field, so everyone is in the same boat as you. Seeing how you stack up against the other teams is the only thing that matters.
How do I use BABS in leagues with non-standard categories such as Saves plus Holds?
I get this type of question so often that I should probably add it to the FAQ page (not that anyone really reads the FAQ page). The short answer: Chapter 14, in Part 3 of The BABS Project eBook.
The longer answer is that BABS does not address holds specifically – mostly because they’re not any more predictive than just identifying the pitchers with the highest skill levels. BABS does a great job of that. Just find the top asset tiers and you’ll see all those guys grouped together. For instance, the extreme skills group has both Devin Williams and Trevor May. The next non-saves tier has names like Jordan Romano, Tanner Rainy, Peter Fairbanks – there are 10 pitchers in that group. I don’t know if they will all get holds, but it’s a fair bet that most of them will. If nothing else, their elite skills will help your ERA and WHIP.
I see BABS is very high on Ke’Bryan Hayes. Would you favor him over both Alec Bohm and Luis Robert, who BABS ranks much lower?
I think it’s important to point out that BABS might rate these players differently on the basis of displayed skill, but all three are rated for extreme risk based on their lack of experience (EX). That means the error bars around those skills are going to be very wide, regardless of their asset rating. Given what we’ve seen from all three, I might choose Hayes first – I did draft him in Tout Wars last week – but it’s a small unrepresentative sample, so I wouldn’t put a ton of credence in it. He was a 3Bman, I needed one and had room in my risk budget to take a mark on the liability side of the ledger.
Hey Ron, what’s the future of BABS?
From what she tells me, it includes a house in the country with a picket fence, a wine cellar and a massive war room with all the latest digital technology. And maybe a dog.
As for the BABS system, I held off making any enhancements this year given all the uncertainties with the 2021 season. But the gears are already turning for 2022. Some of your suggestions are in the hopper, as well as some potential tweaks to the ratings. I’ve been thinking about how to better differentiate between low value players besides “they are all bad” — without adding complexity (a tall order). FISH List fine-tuning. Other stuff too.
If you have ideas, I’d love to hear them. I’ll be sending out a reader survey in April which will be your formal vehicle for sharing your thoughts. But you don’t have to wait for that — the Contact Form always ends up in my IN box. Write any time. I’ll respond as time permits.