21-02-10 Mailbag
Do you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone? Submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line. We’ll select the best ones to respond to in each of the four Game Plan installments.
How is BABS dealing with the short 60-game 2020 season?
As well as can be expected. Given that BABS is most effective with larger data samples, 37 percent of a season poses obvious challenges. For those players whose 2020 fell in line with their history — no problem. For those whose 2020 performance was a sharp departure from history, BABS reviewed each individually. In cases where a player’s statistical output was both supported by his skills metrics and represented a reasonable data point along a career trend, BABS took that more seriously. In other cases, BABS significantly regressed a 2020 performance while retaining elements of that player’s growth or decline. However, in some cases, 2020 simply had to be tossed out completely as being unsupportable.
How are Asset Groups ranked against each other? Higher skills in the same category are obvious, but how do you decide to rank (PW, a) vs (p, AV)? Or (ER, k) vs (e, KK)? And, the most mysterious of all, how are hitting and pitching categories ranked against each other? In general, is this finely honed or somewhat arbitrary?
There is a wide range between “finely honed” and “somewhat arbitrary,” and BABS’ approach is firmly planted in between, somewhere. In general terms, speed is ranked higher than batting effectiveness, which is ranked higher than power, from a strictly skills scarcity perspective as it relates to most fantasy formats. This works well in a Rotisserie environment where stolen bases are a precious commodity; somewhat less in a sim game where SBs are a supplementary skill. But there is little in BABS that is carved in stone. That is why we provide a spreadsheet that you can use to better customize the rankings to your own league experience.
That thought carries over to all the rankings of Asset Groups. There is little difference between (PW,a) and (p,AV), and if you opt to target one class of player over another, nobody is going to show up at your house with a machete. Integrating hitters and pitchers is more art than science. They represent two different commodities and skill sets; ranking them needs to be based on your roster construction and need. It’s like saying that spaghetti pomodoro is better than meatloaf. You might think one is better, I might think the other is better, but both of them together is the best way to win at dinner.
I know how important it is to have a risk budget, but I think that Liabilities accumulated in the later rounds should be weighted less because those players are easier to replace.
This is a similar question to one from last year, but bears repeating. In short, this makes a ton of sense and I agree with it, in concept. In all the chaos leading up to this season, I neglected to address this issue when considering changes to BABS for 2021. I did lock in the half-Liability discount for minor injuries (inj-), but that was all for now. I suppose the big question is, at what point in the draft should we start discounting Liabilities in general? 15th round? 20th round? And at what price point in auctions? Any player under $10? Under $5? That may be more of a personal decision, but I am open to hear your opinions on that.