2023 View of Last Year’s “Bums”

by Doug Gruber

These guys were bad, ruining many fantasy teams and squashing hopes of league titles and prizes. Last year’s BUMS indeed!

For this exercise, we are not going to dwell on players who wrecked rosters due to unexpected injuries (Story, Buehler, B. Lowe,…), expected injuries (DeGrom, Mondesi, Buxton…), or poor judgment (Tatis, Chapman, Sale…). Instead, the focus is on those who flat out had a miserable year. Most important will be to gain a BABS perspective about their 2023 outlook, at current ADP prices.

The surface stats for Lucas Giolito (e,KK|inj-) were horrendous. Ratios of 4.90/1.44, with the second half a nearly carbon copy of the first. Ouch! Below the surface were some positives…a 25% K rate, a FIP nearly a full run lower than his ERA, xFIP another half run below that. All things considered, including a stellar 3-year prior track record, BABS lands on asset ratings for Giolito identical to a year ago. Giolito has the added incentive of his contract year, and you have the incentive that his price is 100 picks lower than 2022. BABS Take: Invest.

Josh Hader (ER,K+,sv-) had a season of peaks and valleys, with periods that surpassed the best and worst stretches of his career. The best included a career-high scoreless innings streak at the beginning, and nine consecutive appearances at the finish with zero runs while touching 100 on the gun. In between there were a lot of rough outings, with a two-week stretch when he allowed 13 runs including a 3-home-run inning.  All told, he accumulated 36 saves, but it came with a 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  For 2023, BABS has downgraded Hader a step below the elite 9th inning arms, but drafters still view him as a Top 3 closer. BABS take: Pass (at his price).

A hot start by J.D. Martinez (PW,a) earned him an election to the AL All-Star squad. Immediately after, he went into a major funk, connecting on only one long ball over the next six weeks, and finished with only 16 HRs for the season. Despite the lower output, BABS thinks his underlying power skills did not change, but did mark him down a level in (Av). Still, the grades are attractive, comparable to players like Matt Olson, Kris Bryant and others, and his current price is the lowest it has been in many years. BABS Take: Invest.

Nick Castellanos (PW,AV|inj-) ended his time in Cincy with an outstanding campaign of 34/100/.309, earning him a lucrative deal with Philly. All started well, and then it didn’t. He played through a fastball off the wrist, then a toe and oblique issues, while pressed into full-time OF defense duties to accommodate Bryce Harper’s injury. His power production (13/62) and BA (.263) fell off considerably, earning nowhere close to his 5th round price. BABS looked through the details and, despite last year’s series of issues, still rates Castellanos as the same hitter with significant power and batting assets. That is a valuable pair. BABS Take: Invest.

Whit Merrifield (s,a) was an early Round 3 selection, fresh off a $37 season, lifted by 720 PAs and 40 steals to lead the AL. He started slowly, was traded to Toronto, then lost his starting job. His total fantasy production was less than half of 2021 levels, including a collapse in SBs and BA which historically have been his strong suits. BABS has dropped Merrifield skills rating in both categories, and the market has dropped his price by about 10 rounds. BABS thinks it needs to drop further. BABS take: Pass.

BABS rated Ketel Marte (p,AV|inj-), pictured, as one of the scarce (A+) batters, and drafters who grabbed him in the 6th round certainly expected better than 12/52/.240 in nearly 500 ABs. Marte had his highest career strikeout rate, a drop in exit velocity combined with more flyballs that cut into his batting average, and his sprint speed fell below league average.  Numerous reports during the season pointed to Marte playing through leg issues, which relegated him to DH while hindering his power and speed. BABS did lower his skills rating from a year ago, but with a market discount to Round 15, this is a desirable player to own. BABS Take: Invest.

Jesse Winker (p,a|INJ) was a BABS target last year, but to say his season in Seattle did not go well would be an understatement. He went from a 24/71/.305 hitter to a 14/53/.219 season, certainly more than can be explained due to a new league and park change. For example, his hard-hit rate fell from top 20 percent to near league bottom. Winker also had off-season procedures to address neck and knee issues that hindered him throughout the year. BABS reduced Winker’s rating, but still sees him as a double-asset threat, who moves to a friendly park and may be owed some regression luck. Worth a look in Round 20. BABS take: Invest.

Trevor Rogers (e,KK|INJ,e) may have been the poster boy for the 2022 BUMS.  4-11, 5.47/1.50 in 23 starts. For those spending a 7th round pick a year ago, well, that didn’t work out! After returning from a stint on the IL, in his last three starts Rogers strung together 18.1 IP, 22 Ks and ratios of 2.98/0.93. Looking at the total body of work, BABS feels his (Er) skills slipped from the prior year, but the FB velo is there, and his 2nd half still showed promise.  In an asset group with similar pitchers like Triston McKenzie and Nestor Cortes, Rogers is worth a flyer at his ADP to fill out your staff. BABS Take: Invest.

Other “Bums” to Invest In: Kevin Gausman (ER,K+), Max Muncy (P+|inj-), Charlie Morton (e,KK), Javier Baez (p,SB), Craig Kimbrel (e,K+,sv-), Patrick Sandoval (e,KK).

Other “Bums” to Pass On (at their current market price): Juan Soto (p,AV), Luis Robert (p,AV|INJ,e), Jose Berrios (k), Sean Manaea (k,-E).

 

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.