2023 Updates from previous articles

Lots can happen over the two month span encompassed by the BABS Draft Plan. What follows are updates from previous analyses that have become outdated.

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POSTION ANALYSES

Catchers: Will Smith is projected to be the No. 3 batter, behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Daulton Varsho is projected to be an emergency catcher and is not expected to catch this spring. This could be his last year with C eligibility. Both Endy Rodriguez and Bo Naylor have been optioned to AAA this spring, but may be due for a call-up depending on their performance and club needs.

1Bmen: Wil Myers (PW,a,Pk+) has arisen from the ADP ashes. His Risk Cost remains at -$3.25, but after once being “somehow buried at ADP 475/-$3 (despite his) Alonso-like profile, . . . 

2Bmen: BABS highlighted that the 2B pool is shallow, with less than one multi-asset performer available per owner. The broken thumb suffered by Jose Altuve intensifies this situation, making this position one to prioritize more so in your drafts. Further down, both Gavin Lux and Brendan Rodgers were underscored as 2Bmen who may help in batting effectiveness. Scratch that, as both players are now likely out for the season with major injuries.

Outfielders: Randall Grichuk was identified as a late round target based on his dual power and batting assets. Nothing has changed skills wise, but Grichuk has yet to appear in spring games due to off season hernia surgery.  He is expected back by the end of April.

Starting pitchers: News that inflammation in Aaron Ashby’s (ER,KK|INJ+,EX) pitching shoulder would delay his 2023 debut by more than a month caused his value to plummet from (236/$4) to (311/$2) as his Risk Cost rose from -$3.00 to -$7.00 and his workload projection fell from Mid-time to Part-time.

OFF-SEASON MOVES – PITCHERS

A pair of pitchers who changed teams in the off season have developed injuries during the spring. Carlos Rodon was diagnosed with a left forearm strain, and is expected to miss at least 2-3 starts to begin the year. More serious, Jose Quintana suffered a stress fracture in his rib cage.  Pending surgery is expected to sideline Quintana until at least July. BABS take: Quintana with his new INJ+ designation moves from a late round target to a pitcher to avoid in upcoming drafts. For Rodon, his ADP has fallen about 3-4 rounds, which is attractive if you can absorb the heightened injury risk.

ASSET GROUP ANALYSES

(ER,K+): Carlos Rodon has been diagnosed with a forearm strain. Fortunately, the injury does not appear to be too serious, but he may miss 2-3 with a projected return in Mid-April. Tyler Glasnow (pictured) has suffered an oblique injury and has not started throwing yet. He currently has a projected return date in early-May. On the positive side, Hunter Greene has been named Cincinnati’s Opening Day starter and will be followed on the mound by Nick Lodolo.

(e,KK): Tony Gonsolin has a sprained ankle and is anticipated to be out until early May. Lance McCullers has a forearm strain and is expected to return around the same time.

(ER,k): In the bullpen, we noted that even though Kendall Graveman (then ADP 490/-$3) “was well out over his skis in his career year of 2021 and (had) been left on the board in early drafts, the White Sox may turn to him if Liam Hendriks cannot answer the bell.” Unfortunately, as Hendriks’s battle with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma makes that “if” look increasingly likely. As a result, Graveman is now going nearly 100 picks and seven rounds earlier at 397/-$1.

(E+,K+): Remove Edwin Diaz from the list of safe relievers.

BEST BABS TARGETS

Remove Edwin Diaz and Joe Musgrove.

THE NOUVEAU ELITE

BABS tabbed Carlos Rodon as one of the least risky SP with premium assets. This was before he was shut down early in spring.

POST-HYPE PROSPECTS

Brendan Rodgers suffered a dislocated left shoulder and is not expected to return until sometime in August at the earliest. Nick Senzel is not expected to be ready for Opening Day following surgery. Dustin May has thrown well this spring, but manager Dave Roberts has said that the club will likely have workload limitations. Mitch Keller has been named the Pirates’ Opening Day starter. Ian Anderson has been optioned to AAA this spring. BABS’ suggestion to pass on Alex Reyes, injured shoulder, Mike Soroka, hamstring injury, and Sixto Sanchez, shoulder problems, has proven to be a good call.

ROOKIE BATTERS

Estuary Ruiz is having a good spring and may make the A’s roster, and perhaps even be their starting CF. Bret Baty is also looking good this spring and may take over the third base job from Eduardo Escobar. Oswald Peraza is on tap to be the Yankees starting SS, but his spring BA is still only .222. Aaron Boone has said that teammate Anthony Volpe has a chance to make the club out of spring training. Elly De La Cruz has been sent to AAA but could get a call-up if he continues hitting as he did in the minors last year. The same situation also applies to the Cub’s Mat Mervis and the Rays 2B, Curtis Mead.

ROOKIE PITCHERS

Ryan Pepiot has a chance to crack the Dodgers rotation depending on the outcome of Tony Gonsolin’s ankle injury. Similarly, Hayden Wesneski appears to be the favorite for the Cubs’ final rotation spot. Cade Cavalli will require TJS and will be out until June of next year. The Orioles’ DL Hall has a bad back but is scheduled to return around mid-April. Andrew Painter has suffered a sprained UCL and will be shut down until early June.

AUCTION STRATEGY

Jose Altuve was targeted as one of our hitter foundations, but the news of his fractured right thumb changes that plan. Fortunately, we can pivot in several directions. Jazz Chisholm (PW,S+|INJ,e) could be a direct replacement for Altuve given his projected cost and collection of skills, although he adds significant risk to our roster. Alternatively, with the position flexibility we had built into our sample lineup, a player like Max Muncy could shift into the 2B spot. This opens several options to reallocate Altuve’s R$, such as multi-asset players Michael Harris (p,SB,AV|EX) or Wander Franco (s,A+|INJ,e).

If your auction is complete and you have rostered Altuve, BABS suggests referring to the position articles to start planning for your waiver wire replacement.  2Bmen like Ha-Seong Kim (s,a|e) or Tony Kemp (s,a) are certainly not as skilled as Altuve, but if available could provide full-time ABs and value in more than one category.

SALARY CAP STRATEGY

Our salary cap sample roster included Jose Altuve at one of the 2B spots, who should not be rostered in this format due to his expected long-term absence. Thank goodness we have the entire player pool available, and we had provided ourselves some salary cap wiggle room if we needed to adjust, which we now do.  For example, moving Max Muncy to 2B and using some of our salary cushion allows us to add a to add either Rafael Devers or Austin Riley at 3B.