2023 Starting Pitchers

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

by Greg Fishwick

Unlike batters, where there are very distinct pockets of diverse skill at the top of the pyramid, pitchers clump together in deeper groups of equivalent talent. That is good news for us — more opportunity to find profit in the marketplace. The best way to distinguish among all the like skills is to look at their risk profiles.

ADP R$ STARTERS Pos Tm PT ER K SV * Rg Sk Inj Ex Ag Rg RISK
10 $35 Ohtani,Shohei SP LAA M E+ K+ Rg- 0.50
16 $31 Burnes,Corbin SP MIL F E+ K+ 0.00
33 $24 deGrom,Jacob SP TEX M E+ K+ INJ 5.25
36 $23 Strider,Spencer SP ATL M E+ K+ EX 3.00
55 $19 Scherzer,Max SP NYM M E+ K+ INJ Ag Rg- 5.75
131 $10 Kershaw,Clayton SP LA P E+ KK INJ 3.00
20 $28 Cole,Gerrit SP NYY F ER K+ 0.00
52 $19 Rodon,Carlos SP NYY M ER K+ 0.25
92 $13 Glasnow,Tyler SP TAM M ER K+ INJ Rg- 3.50
119 $11 Greene,Hunter SP CIN M ER K+ inj- EX 3.00
125 $10 Snell,Blake SP SD M ER K+ inj- 1.00
172 $7 Sale,Chris SP BOS M ER K+ INJ 3.00
230 $5 Heaney,Andrew SP TEX P ER K+ INJ 3.25
74 $16 Fried,Max SP ATL F E+ k 0.00
37 $22 Woodruff,Brandon SP MIL M ER KK inj- 3.00
39 $22 McClanahan,Shane SP TAM M ER KK inj- e 5.00
40 $22 Nola,Aaron SP PHI F ER KK 0.00
47 $20 Verlander,Justin SP NYM M ER KK Ag Rg- 1.00
61 $18 Bieber,Shane SP CLE F ER KK 0.00
68 $16 Castillo,Luis SP SEA M ER KK 0.00
68 $16 Gausman,Kevin SP TOR F ER KK 0.00
76 $15 Javier,Cristian SP HOU M ER KK Rg- 0.50
83 $14 Musgrove,Joe SP SD F ER KK 0.00
84 $14 Darvish,Yu SP SD F ER KK Ag 0.25
134 $10 Lodolo,Nick SP CIN M ER KK INJ EX 5.00
164 $8 May,Dustin SP LA M ER KK INJ EX 5.00
236 $4 Ashby,Aaron SP MIL M ER KK Rg+ inj- EX 3.00
28 $25 Alcantara,Sandy SP MIA F ER k Rg- 0.50
55 $19 Urias,Julio SP LA F ER k Rg- 0.50
56 $18 Wheeler,Zack SP PHI M ER k inj- 3.00
74 $16 Gallen,Zac SP ARI M ER k Rg- 0.50
106 $12 Kirby,George SP SEA M ER k EX 2.00
171 $7 Montgomery,Jordan SP STL M ER k 0.00
225 $5 Gray,Sonny SP MIN M ER k INJ 3.00
247 $4 Cobb,Alex SP SF M ER k INJ 3.00
37 $22 Cease,Dylan SP CHW F e KK Rg- 0.50
93 $13 McKenzie,Triston SP CLE M e KK Rg- 0.50
100 $13 Ray,Robbie SP SEA F e KK 0.00
142 $9 Peralta,Freddy SP MIL M e KK INJ 3.00
151 $9 Luzardo,Jesus SP MIA M e KK INJ e 4.00
155 $8 Giolito,Lucas SP CHW M e KK inj- 1.00
176 $7 Morton,Charlie SP ATL F e KK Ag 0.25
178 $7 Springs,Jeffrey SP TAM M e KK Rg- 0.50
223 $5 Cabrera,Edward SP MIA M e KK INJ EX 5.00
428 -$2 Maeda,Kenta SP MIN P e KK INJ 3.00
554 -$4 Alzolay,Adbert SP CHC P e KK INJ e 4.00
558 -$4 Skubal,Tarik SP DET P e KK INJ+ e 6.00
601 -$5 Paxton,James SP BOS P e KK INJ 3.00
697 -$6 Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS P e KK Rg+ INJ+ 5.00
686 -$6 Espino,Daniel SP CLE E+ K+ EX 2.00
69 $16 Manoah,Alek SP TOR F e k Rg- 0.50
114 $11 Gilbert,Logan SP SEA F e k 0.00
118 $11 Severino,Luis SP NYY M e k INJ 3.00
118 $11 Wright,Kyle SP ATL F e k e 1.00
119 $11 Cortes,Nestor SP NYY M e k Rg- 0.50
139 $9 Lynn,Lance SP CHW M e k INJ Ag 3.25
147 $9 Ryan,Joe SP MIN M e k e 1.00
163 $8 Garcia,Luis SP HOU M e k 0.00
166 $8 Lopez,Pablo SP MIN M e k 0.25
173 $7 Gonsolin,Tony SP LA P e k e Rg- 1.50
178 $7 Rasmussen,Drew SP TAM M e k e 1.00
196 $6 Gray,Jonathan SP TEX M e k inj- 1.00
196 $6 Rodriguez,Grayson SP BAL P e k EX 2.00
198 $6 Senga,Kodai SP NYM M e k EX 2.00
204 $6 McCullers,Lance SP HOU M e k INJ Rg- 3.50
218 $5 Sandoval,Patrick SP LAA M e k Rg- 0.50
219 $5 Detmers,Reid SP LAA M e k e 1.00
221 $5 Montas,Frankie SP NYY M e k INJ+ 5.00
229 $5 Flaherty,Jack SP STL M e k INJ 3.00
242 $4 Rogers,Trevor SP MIA M e k INJ e 4.00
252 $4 Eovaldi,Nathan SP TEX M e k INJ 3.25
299 $2 Steele,Justin SP CHC M e k inj- e 2.00
334 $1 Carrasco,Carlos SP NYM M e k inj- Ag 1.25
384 -$1 Bello,Brayan SP BOS P e k EX 2.00
447 -$2 Civale,Aaron SP CLE P e k Rg+ INJ 3.00
452 -$2 Matz,Steven SP STL M e k INJ 3.00
486 -$3 Wood,Alex SP SF M e k Rg+ inj- 1.00
511 -$3 Peterson,David SP NYM P e k e 1.00
533 -$4 Ortiz,Luis SP PIT P e k EX 2.00
592 -$5 Lorenzen,Michael SP DET M e k INJ 3.25
87 $14 Valdez,Framber SP HOU F ER 0.00
117 $11 Webb,Logan SP SF F ER 0.00
238 $4 Berrios,Jose SP TOR M k 0.00
272 $3 Ober,Bailey SP MIN P k INJ EX Rg- 5.50
304 $2 Kopech,Michael SP CHW M k INJ e Rg- 4.50
306 $2 Contreras,Roansy SP PIT M k EX 2.00
317 $1 Mahle,Tyler SP MIN M k INJ 3.00
495 -$3 Gore,MacKenzie SP WAS P k INJ EX 5.00
509 -$3 Suarez,Jose SP LAA M k e 1.00
538 -$4 Pivetta,Nick SP BOS M k 0.00
612 -$5 Anderson,Ian SP ATL P k e 1.00
617 -$5 Brubaker,Jonathan SP PIT M k 0.00
623 -$5 Pepiot,Ryan SP LA P k EX Rg- 2.50
692 -$6 Fujinami,Shintaro SP OAK M k EX 2.00
157 $8 Bassitt,Chris SP TOR M e 0.50
190 $6 Singer,Brady SP KC M e 0.00
244 $4 Kelly,Merrill SP ARI F e 0.00
253 $4 Taillon,Jameson SP CHC M e 0.25
265 $3 Brown,Hunter SP HOU M e EX Rg- 2.50
276 $3 Stroman,Marcus SP CHC M e inj- 1.00
354 $0 Stripling,Ross SP SF M e 0.25
370 $0 Eflin,Zach SP TAM M e INJ 3.25
376 $0 Wesneski,Hayden SP CHC P e EX 2.00
395 -$1 Quintana,Jose SP NYM M e 0.25
405 -$1 Rodriguez,Eduardo SP DET M e INJ 3.00
479 -$3 Bradish,Kyle SP BAL M e inj- EX 3.00
485 -$3 Garrett,Braxton SP MIA M e EX 2.00
528 -$4 Keller,Mitch SP PIT M e 0.00
546 -$4 Wacha,Michael SP FAA M e INJ 3.00

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience),  Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost. (Some BABS categories have been omitted due to space limitations but appear in the full database and spreadsheet charts.) 

There are no surprises in the dual extreme-skilled (E+,K+) Asset Group. All five of Shohei Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider and Max Scherzer are going in the first four rounds or for at least $19. But one name stands out in this group. Only Burnes is currently projected for Full-time innings (180+) and comes with no marks on the liabilities side of the ledger. That’s significant. But if you’re not willing to spend and want to avoid risk, there are still solid options in slightly lower groups.

In the (ER,K+) group, six of the seven SPs have Mid-time workload projections, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Blake Snell standing out for their low risk cost. You’ll take a hit to your risk budget with the rest of the group.

There are over a dozen arms in the (ER,KK) group that could still be valuable anchors, with a few full-timers sprinkled in at various price points. Aaron Nola (pictured) is the top option for the risk-averse in Round 3, but the sweet spot is in Round 4, when Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman are all going within a few picks/$ of each other.

Once rostering an “ace,” the deep (ER, k) and (e, KK) groups offer many options for #2 and #3 starters. Some of the least risky targets are also the least pricey. You can pay up for Sandy Alcantara, Julio Urias or Dylan Cease (arguably #1 SPs, but with lesser skill profiles) or wait for Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery or Robbie Ray. Digging even deeper, Jeffrey Springs may not have the same track record as the others, but his skills profile is comparable, and he is being drafted as much as 10 rounds later. There’s regression risk here, but that’s a small price to pay for a 12th round pick with 2nd round upside.

Auction drafters could conceivably build a complete starting staff from the (e,k) group alone. Thirty arms deep, there are plenty of low risk options and a smattering of pitchers with upside. You might anchor with Alek Manoah, then add names like Logan Gilbert, Nestor Cortes, Pablo Lopez, Luis Garcia, Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval. Pick pretty much any five of those names and your total risk cost for your rotation would come in under $2.00. Total. For your entire starting rotation. Your acquisition cost would likely be under $50 as well, depending upon your league parameters.

 

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.