2023 Snake Draft Strategy

by Pat Cloghessy

Snake drafts come with unique sets of challenges. And strategies to match.  

We’re not far removed from the “pocket aces” game plan, which gained steam just a few years ago. When drafting near the end of Round 1, it became fairly popular to go SP/SP with the first two picks. This year, for TGFBI, a new mode of roster construction emerged. 

Pocket…Corners?

Pocket corners. 

It’s less of an overall blueprint, more a function of reacting and reading what’s to come. No one goes into a snake draft planning on filling their corner infield slot in the 2nd round. 

Fools do that. 

“Attack the corner with cheap power options later on”.

That’s what they say. 

Yes, one can always take a stab at cheap, late power. But one can also check the 1B and CI pool and notice it ain’t that great. 

In this year’s TGFBI, I kay-dee-essed myself into the 10th pick in the first round (my No. 1 choice). I had about ten bats I felt comfortable with, and was targeting Yordan at 10. He didn’t make it. 

So…Ohtani, right?

Wrong. 

It’s not easy to pass on Ohtani, but pass I did, and for Freddie Freeman (p,A+). Weekly lineups take the Shohei cheat code away. Give me 20/100/.300 and maybe more across the board. That’s a start.

And then came the second round (pick 2.6). There aren’t many (if any) speed guys worthy of that slot. I took a long look at Michael Harris II, but felt it too early for him (he went 2.15). In the end, the choice was Goldschmidt (PW,AV) or Alonso (PW,AV). Can’t go wrong either way, but Goldy won out. He’s got at least one more monster season left in him…right?

Taking two of the top three first basemen has its advantages. First, I’m banking stats in four categories. Tons of counting stats and a hefty batting average floor. Second, I’m boxing the rest of the league out. My 1B/CI slots have the potential to be miles better than most other squads. Does my team have a leg up? For now, maybe.

The next four picks included two arms tabbed for full-time work in Nola (ER,KK) and Darvish (ER,KK) and two power/speed threats. There are 12 total SP projected by BABS for 180+ innings. I was able to roster two of them, and Darvish only cost a 6th rounder.  Volume counts. The downside of Adolis Garcia (PW,SB) and O’Neil Cruz (PW,SB) is the absence of a batting effectiveness asset. Still, with Freeman and Goldy up top, I feel pretty good. 

BABS is higher than most on 7th round selection Blake Snell (ER,K+).  Erase the name next to the assets, and you could be looking at Woodruff or Cole or Javier or Hunter Greene. All of whom were taken long before Snell. Snell’s risk cost is far more palatable than his reputation.  His 2nd half of 2022 was the closest he’s come to the Cy Young season in 2018. Good vibes heading into 2023, and the last starter I’d select until the 16 round. 

Shot: Snell

Chaser: Byron Buxton (pictured)

That’s right. No parachute here. Larger contests require some risk/reward plays. I just happened to pop two of the most controversial with back-to-back picks. At that point in the draft, Buxton (P+,SB,a) possessed the highest upside, and it wasn’t close. Those are the assets of a first rounder, though we know why he was still lingering after pick 100. I wanted more speed and could have gone McCarthy or Kwan, but are either of them a sure thing? 

So instead I chased speed again in the 10th with Nico Hoerner (SB,AV). Slated to bat leadoff, at least for now, Nico will have every opportunity to zoom past his 20 SBs of a year ago. He helps the BA that I sacrificed earlier for the power/speed of Garcia/Cruz. He’ll also gain 2B eligibility in short order. In an attempt to balance out Hoerner’s lack of power, I went with the Big Dumper (P+,a) in the very next round. Cal Raleigh was the most asset-laden catcher remaining on the BABS spreadsheet, so it was a no-brainer. 

I’ve never been able to pull the trigger on a closer in the 2nd or 3rd round in this type of contest. Always been happy to play the field and the FAAB game. This resulted in cracks at Alexis Diaz (e,K+) in the 9th and Peter Fairbanks (E+,K+) in the 12th. The Reds might not be very good, but I’ll take the strikeouts. And maybe Fairbanks’ WOW factor when he’s on the hill entices Kevin Cash to lean on him more often to close things out. He is straight electric. 

I kept up the balancing act with Cody Bellinger (p,s) and Luis Arraez (A+) with the next two picks. Once we get near pick 200, there are few players who checked all of the asset boxes I was shooting for. So, the next best thing was to piece it together. This strategy saw my team fall short in the power targets noted on the BABS Roster Grid. She calls for 14 power assets, I ended with 11. Dragged down by my 2nd catcher (Trevino), Arraez, Hoerner, Yandy Diaz and Margot. Raleigh and Buxton’s (P+) offset some of this deficiency, and adding Trayce Thompson (P+) to the bench could help. 

Batting effectiveness ended up much the same. With the (A+) assets of Freeman and Arraez, the starting roster has 11 Av assets. The target was 14. Hey, a couple of extra hits per month…

My current “starting lineup” has six speed assets of the seven BABS recommends. Reserves Nick Gordon (p,SB,a) and Bubba Thompson (S+) have the ability to chip in. Thompson could be in line for a lot of work early, as Leody Taveras has an oblique issue. If Thompson can get hot, it’s not ridiculous to assume he could get a lion’s share of playing time even when Taveras returns. 

With guys like Buxton, Raleigh and Snell, one might think this team overshot my risk budget ($40). The late selections of Yandy Diaz, Mike Yastrzemski and Kendall Gravemen helped to keep the cost down. To boot, all of the batters I drafted as No. 1s are projected for full-time at-bats save for Buxton and the two catchers. Again, pump up the volume. Yandy in the 19th, Margot in the 21st and Yaz in the 23rd should all assist with counting stats. 

In the end, I came in $3.75 under the risk budget. That’s a win.

This draft was a buzzsaw. So many astute drafters, some of which I’m certain have BABS blood in them. There were more than a couple of instances where my queue was barren by the time the draft returned to me.