2023 Rookie Pitchers

by Curt Brooks

Let’s take a quick walk down memory lane and review the career of Julio Urias. Originally drafted in 2012, he worked his way up through the minors, appearing on various prospect lists and making the top 10 in 2016, the same year he debuted with the Dodgers. But he did spend parts of the following three seasons in the minors, some due to injury – a very common theme with pitchers. As an “overnight” success, he finally lived up to his lofty prospect status when he won 20 games in 2021, a mere five years after being a top-10 prospect.

(MLE ratings from BABS Minor League Ratings Page)

Notes:  All players listed in this article will carry the EX liability for 2023, and it is not shown below for brevity. However, other major liabilities are included in the accompanying ratings as appropriate. Also, BABS ratings are primarily for re-draft leagues and do not specifically apply to dynasty leagues.

2022 call-ups who still qualify as rookies

Hunter Brown (e|Rg-) made waves last year working as both a starter and a reliever for the Astros. BABS projects him for 120+ IP, but is conservative in her projections for him this year, despite strong MLEs (E+,k), she suggests negative regression is a possibility. Kyle Bradish (e|inj-) is also projected for Mid-time PT, but beware of the injury liability.

BABS believes that the Pirates’ Luis Ortiz (e,k) has stronger overall skills than the first two pitchers, although his MLEs () do suggest a bit of caution is warranted – plus, she projects only part-time innings this year. Ryan Pepiot (k|Rg-) has very strong MLEs (E+,k) and is projected for similar innings, but also has the negative regression risk to consider. And several other pitchers are projected for some innings, albeit with lesser skills. This group includes Hayden Wesneski (e), MLEs (e), and Cade Cavalli (|inj-) MLEs (e), pictured.

BABS also says to keep an eye on some skilled pitchers with no PT projections. Both Ken Waldichuk (e,k), supported by his MLEs (E+,k), and DL Hall (e,KK), MLEs (KK), own skills that suggest each might find a way into the starting rotation for their teams. Though much higher risk, Cleveland’s Cody Morris (ER,KK|INJ, Rg-) is looking to build on his MLB debut after a very strong, but brief, showing in Triple-A last year. And yet another prospect in the Guardians’ system, Hunter Gaddis (ER,KK) is likely to start the year in Triple-A this year but could force the issue based on his MLEs (e,k).

2023 International Free Agents (IFA) of note

30-year-old Koudai Senga (e,k), MLEs (E+), was perhaps the biggest IFA signing of the off-season. BABS likes his skills and believes he could be a productive member of your pitching staff. Shintaro Fujinami (k) didn’t generate the news of Senga, but the 6’6” righty could help both the A’s and your staff.

Top 2023 prospects with projected playing time to keep an eye on

Grayson Rodriguez’s (e,k) skills are fully supported by his MLEs (E+,KK), and he should make his highly-anticipated debut this year.

Other skilled prospects with no projected PT

Since BABS is all about skills (and liabilities, of course), make sure to keep an eye on this group of pitchers. Gavin Stone (e,KK), with superb MLEs (E+,KK), sits at the top of the list. In a Dodgers’ organization known for developing pitchers, he dominated both AA and AAA last year and could be nearing his debut. Taj Bradley (e,k) has almost equally enticing skills, backed by top-notch MLEs (E+,k). He likewise had excellent performances in the top minors last year, with a K/BB ratio above 3.5 at AAA.

Eury Perez (e,KK), MLEs (KK), reached Double-A last year and has already earned an invitation to big-league camp on the strength of his skills. At only 19 years old, he looks to make his debut this year. Gavin Williams (e,k) has solid skills, which are backed by his great MLEs (E+,k), and could be the next pitcher up in a strong Cleveland organization.

If the name Wilmer Flores (ER,k) sounds familiar, it’s because he is actually the younger brother of the Giants’ infielder. While he may not be quite ready at age 21, his MLEs (E+) show that he dominated Double-A in only his second year of professional ball. And yet another name to watch in the pitching-rich Dodgers’ organization is Bobby Miller (ER,KK), with MLEs (e,k) that back BABS’ assessment.

Two other pitchers with no projections for the coming season bear watching, given their strong MLEs. The Giants’ Kyle Harrison, MLEs (ER,KK), is expected to start the year in Triple-A, but with last year’s K/9 of 13.6 at Double-A (18.3 at High-A!), he has rocketed up prospect lists. Lastly, Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt put up MLEs of (ER,k), starting in Double-A, and finishing in Triple-A, striking out over 200 batters (combined) in the process – the most of any pitcher since 2001. BABS says she wouldn’t want to be a hitter in the NL West in the years to come.

No, BABS didn’t forget…

…but she doesn’t have quite enough information on many top prospects as they didn’t have log IPs in the high minors to generate MLEs. This year’s list includes prospects like Andrew Painter and Ricky Tiedemann.

As a wise philosopher once said, “Rivers know this: there is no hurry. We shall get there someday.” Wise words to remember when selecting young pitchers. Oh, the quote? None other than A.A. Milne, as spoken by Winnie the Pooh.

 

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.