2023 Rookie Batters

by Curt Brooks

Lest one thinks that achieving MLB stardom is easy, let’s examine consensus top-5 pick Jose Ramirez’s history. He earned a cup of coffee in 2013, but then spent parts of the next two years in the minors, before finally breaking out in 2016 with an 84/11/76/.312/22 line. And note that he didn’t even add power until the following year.

Selecting rookies is not for the faint of heart! But, let’s give this a shot – after all, who wishes they had Julio Rodriguez on their roster last year?

(MLE ratings from BABS Minor League Ratings Page)

 Notes:  All players listed in this article will carry the EX liability for 2023, and it is not shown below for brevity. However, other major liabilities are included in the accompanying ratings as appropriate. Also, BABS ratings are primarily for re-draft leagues and do not specifically apply to dynasty leagues.

2022 call-ups who still qualify as rookies

The first of two high ADP rookies is fleet-footed Corbin Carroll (S+,a), projected for Full-time play. His speed is fully supported by his MLEs (PW,S+|-A), and even suggests some upside in power. And right on his heels is Gunnar Henderson (p,SB,a), also projected for Full-time ABs. And his MLEs (p,SB) support his current year projections as well. Best of all, he will qualify at both 3B and SS this year. BABS says, “Yes, please” to both.

Royce Lewis (PW,SB|INJ+) suffered (another) serious knee injury which will keep him out until likely after the All-Star break, but those skills certainly make him worth keeping an eye on as an IL flyer, at the very least.

Ezequiel Tovar (SB), whose MLEs (s,AV) suggest there could be even more in the tank. He is projected to be the Rockies’ starting shortstop and will likely be given the chance to prove himself this year. Triston Casas (p) is also in line for a starting job at 1B this year but will have to prove his worth. His calling card has always been power, as shown by his MLEs (p). With neither of these players carrying additional liabilities, BABS is warily on board.

The remainder of the 2022 call-ups are projected for some skill liabilities, including James Outman (PW|-A). He has a history of extreme power, as shown in his MLEs of (P+|-A), which is unfortunately combined with a historically low contact rate leading to the (|-A) liability. And Estuary Ruiz (S+|-PA) has an opposite profile with extreme speed MLEs (S+,a) but is lacking in the power department. BABS is not recommending either at this stage.

BABS also urges caution before going overboard with the New York contingent. Brett Baty (|inj-) is projected with no BABS skills and an injury liability, and only has MLEs of (p). Francisco Alvarez (p|-A) has the one skill liability which is consistent with his MLEs (PW|-A). And Oswald Peraza (SB|-PA), carries significant risk, which is also backed up in his MLEs (s|-A). Currently, each player is only projected for part-time PT.

2023 International Free Agents (IFA) of note

Over the winter, 29-year-old Masataka Yoshida (a) of the Nippon Baseball league in Japan signed with the Red Sox. Overseas, he primarily played outfield and was known for being a high-contact hitter with average power. For now, BABS is taking a conservative view, placing him in the DH position, without either MLB experience or MLEs to consider in her evaluation.

Some other top 2023 prospects to keep an eye on

One of the few triple-asset minor leaguers is Elly De La Cruz (P+,S+,a). Although BABS does not project any PT currently, keep an eye on this skill-laden youngster as his skillset is fully supported by his MLEs (P+,SB,a).

Connor Norby (p,a) is another one of the “Baby Birds” in the Oriole’s well-stocked system. A 2Bman by trade, his hit tool plus power profile and MLEs (PW,a) suggest he is nearly ready to assume an everyday role in the lineup. Colton Cowser (|-A), is also perhaps not too far away despite the batting liability. This former No. 5 pick, known for his power, MLEs (PW,*), advanced through three levels of the minors last year. Although he may start the year in AAA, he could earn a quick promotion if he can avoid too many strikeouts.

BABS has a positive prognosis for Matt Mervis (p,a), who’s projected for over 350 plate appearances, and carries MLEs of (PW|-A). He progressed through three levels of the minors last year, improving at each stop. Likewise, Brewers OF Sal Frelick (s,AV|-P) also shot up from A+ through AAA, earning an invitation to big-league camp this spring. His MLEs (s,AV) support the projections but ensure you budget for the lack of power. And, while catcher Endy Rodriguez (PW,AV) isn’t expected to get much PT at the present, MLEs of (P+,A+) are really hard to ignore, especially at a position often devoid of skills.

Also not projected for much PT, BABS looks favorably on Curtis Mead (p,a) and his MLEs (PW|-A), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (p,a) with MLEs of (PW,a). On the other hand, she is more skeptical of Anthony Volpe (S+|-A), MLEs (p,SB|-A), primarily due to his batting liability.

Finally, Jordan Walker (s), who had an impressive stat line in the minors last year (100/19/68/.304/22), is projected for part-time at-bats this year based on a possible mid-season call-up. However, since his highest experience level is AA, his MLEs (s|-A) have BABS taking a cautious approach, given that he won’t even turn 21 until May.

Deeper prospects with dual/triple skills

Although perhaps a year away, SS Wenceel Perez, with MLEs (p,SB,a) almost identical to Michael Harris, is one to keep an eye on. And, 3B Casey Schmitt, MLEs (p,AV), will start the year in the minors but could see MLB this year.

No, BABS didn’t forget…

…but she doesn’t have quite enough information on many top prospects as they didn’t have enough ABs in the high minors to generate MLEs. This year’s list includes such touted prospects as Jackson Chourio, Jordan Lawler, and Kyle Manzardo.

And, finally, always remember that even the most highly-rated prospects can stumble and not achieve their lofty expectations for years (repeat after me, “Alex Rodriguez”).

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.