2023 Risk: Safest Foundation Players

by Pat Cloghessy

High upside talent is always great…until it isn’t. The production “isn’t”, often due to injury. Staying healthy is a skill, and oft-injured players don’t suddenly become beacons of health. Identifying risk and planning for it is one way to build a fantasy contender. 

BABS makes this easy (because of course she does). Build your core by identifying highly skilled, low risk players. For perhaps the first time, the marketplace is making it easy as well; the early ADPs are teeming with reliable, low-risk options. Here are the ones to target. 

Take Yordan Alvarez (P+,A+); he’s an elite power hitter who can hit for elite average. Go ahead, count how many of these batters exist in 2023. Hint: the answer is one, Mr. Alvarez. He also carries a big fat 0.00 risk cost. To BABS, he is a bargain at ADP 11. If we are taking risk into account with our top (and most expensive) pick, why not Yordan in the top 3? It’s worth considering. He’s gained OF eligibility!!

Aaron Judge (P+,AV), pictured, is another pure power hitter with BA as a major strength. He’d be a fine first round pick, given his low risk rating. Judge is going about five picks ahead of Yordan. 

It’s understood that speed is coveted high in the draft, especially in the first round. Trea Turner (p,S+,AV) makes perfect sense as the No. 1 overall pick. Other safe options who run: Mookie Betts (P+,s,AV), Kyle Tucker (PW,s,AV) and Bo Bichette (p,s,AV) all fit the bill. These may not be the sexiest foundation players, as there are young guns dripping with triple-threat talent, but at the risk of sounding redundant, those young guns are young. Youth comes with risk. 

Which isn’t to say Julio Rodriguez or Bobby Witt are undraftable in the first round. Far from it. But if we steer clear of them and “play it safe”, there are still other, less risky options available later. Jose Altuve (p,s,AV), Marcus Semien (p,SB,a) and Randy Arozarena (p,SB,a) can all be had near the end of Round 3. Their assets aren’t quite as tantalizing, but rostering bankable stats is valuable in its own right. 

It’s not hard to find middle-of-the-order run-producing bats who come with little risk. At least early on, which is nice. Drafting in the middle presents 2nd round options like: Austin Riley, Rafael Devers and Paul Goldschmidt. All share the same asset class (PW,AV). 

Freddie Freeman (p,A+) is the only bat this side of Yordan that can claim an elite BA skill coupled with a power asset, and he’s well behind Alvarez in the power department. Still, his 20ish HR and .300 BA are almost metronomic. No shame in popping Freddie late in the first round. 

The trend on pitchers has come a long way since they littered the top of drafts in the recent past. Now, we see maybe three or four going by the end of Round 2. Has the market already read this yet-to-be-published think-piece on safety and risk assessment?

BABS sees few SP who are worthy of the “safe foundation player” honorific, at least early on. Shohei Ohtani and Corbin Burnes (both E+K+) have earned it. After that, it’s Gerrit Cole (ER,K+) or wait. 

If you are forced to wait, the (ER,KK) asset group has plenty of foundation-worthy options. Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander are ~4th round picks, while (deep breath) Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Christian Javier, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are all solid options in the 5th round or later. 

Max Fried (E+,k) isn’t getting much love after a stellar ‘22 season. Which seems odd, considering his pristine sheet on the liabilities side. Drafting Fried as a 2nd (or 3rd!) pitcher feels like stealing at the 5-6 turn. 

Don’t sleep on three from the (ER,k) group, which includes Julio Urias, Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara. All splendid options when filling out the front end of a rotation. Dylan Cease (e,KK) is similarly skilled, and has the goods to be called across the “safe foundation” stage. 

Closer roulette is back again in 2023, but a few arms bubble to the top when risk is factored in. Edwin Diaz (E+,K+) is the first closer off the board in the 2nd round, and he probably deserves to be. Emmanuel Clase (E+,KK) isn’t far behind. After that, former teammates Josh Hader (ER,K+) and Devin Williams (E+,K+) appear to be reliable options. 

In the end, risk management is a personal decision. For BABS, it’s top of mind, all the time. What’s your tolerance?