2023 Risk: High Risk/High Reward Players

by Pat Cloghessy

Balance is not everything, but going all in on riskier players is certainly flying without a parachute. Playing it safe the entire way risks leaving a lot on the table. Opportunity cost works both ways. There is a yin-yang effect here. 

So go meditate, do some yoga and embrace imperfection. While you’re at it, read The Safest Foundation Players in 2023. It works well as a companion piece. There is no surefire way to win, but striving for some semblance of balance can unlock higher levels of achievement. 

The later stages of drafts are relatively risk-free, given the entry cost. Today, we focus on the first 10 rounds, where the risk/reward matrix forces tough decisions. 

The top of the BABS batter database is obviously littered with the most talented players in the game. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Byron Buxton’s (P+,SB,a) line jumps off the page. A talent of his caliber almost never even makes it out of the first round, let alone the top 100 picks. There is good reason to be skeptical, as Buxton has been fragile throughout his entire career. Just once has he surpassed 100 games played in a season; way back in 2017. The upside is immense, as evidenced by his 28 dingers across 382 plate appearances in 2022. The ability to take a chance on Byron will largely be decided long before his ADP range reaches you. Were you able to minimize risk early on, or did you take chances? Can you fit his $3 risk cost into your budget?

Yin-yang.

With similar assets, Jazz Chisolm (PW,S+) elicits neanderthal feelings like “me want”! Buxton feels like a reasonable risk at his draft slot, so long as the roster up to that point contains little to no BABS-rated risk. Alternatively, Jazz represents a much tougher conundrum with his $7 risk cost. Part with a 4th round pick, hoping he’s healthy, or play it $6.50 safer with an Adolis Garcia type (PW,SB)? Keep in mind, Chisholm’s $7 cost is the highest (read: most perilous) risk rating BABS offers for draftable players heading into 2023. That said, Jazz’ skills are those of a top 30 selection, so his current market value has some of the downside baked in. Bonus: He appears primed to play CF, so flexibility will be gained fairly early on. 

You thought this game was easy? 

Like Buxton, Luis Robert (p,AV) has never surpassed 100 games played in a season. Like Jazz, he’s weighed down by the same $7 risk cost. Long targeted for his five-tool skillset, BABS doesn’t even register above average speed as an asset in 2023. Robert’s ADP (49) is the same as Chisolm at time of publication. I haven’t reached out yet, but I’d bet BABS might say “are we really doing this again”? 

Other high-profile batters with elevated $2-$5 risk that deserve extra attention in this regard: Wander Franco (s,A+) at ADP 91, Eloy Jimenez (p,a) at 77, Ozzie Albies (p,a) at 52, Corbin Carroll (S+,a) at 74, and Oneil Cruz (PW,SB) at 75. Remember to peep the risk score itself. Not all dangers are created equal. 

Jacob deGrom (E+,K+) analysis can get poisoned by fanspeak and other associated noise. Was he extra conservative in 2022 because one final big contract opportunity loomed in the offseason? Ignore that. The risk is real regardless of how it’s permeated the culture. Can he win another Cy Young Award? Sure, but the real question might be: Can he stay on the field? BIG question. Is it worth an early 3rd round pick to find out? Can you absorb his $5.25 risk cost? That’s up to you. BABS would probably steer clear, but she certainly understands the temptation. 

Max Scherzer (E+,K+): ditto above and an even higher $5.75 risk cost, with one caveat: He’s 20 picks cheaper than deGrom. Seems the market sees age exacerbating the injury risk. Spencer Strider’s (E+,K+) lack of experience breeds its own questions. Also a 3rd round pick with a $3 risk cost. 

Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are supremely skilled (ER,K+) and head up a formidable rotation for the Yankees. But this exercise is not about them — they both come with $0 in risk cost. BABS wants to talk about Hunter Greene ($3), Tyler Glasnow ($3.50, pictured) and Nick Lodolo ($5). They hold the same assets as the aces in NY, but contain baggage. Do we chase the Cole/Rodon upside (yes, it’s real), or play it safe with lesser skilled arms? Tough question. Aside from Blake Snell ($1), Glasnow, Greene and Lodolo are clearly the most talented starting pitchers available in the 90-130 ADP range. In this instance, banking reliable arms early could pay off.

Shane McClanahan is slotted in the (ER,KK) asset group but with $5 worth of downside risk. Yet he is being chosen ahead of asset mates like Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo, none with more than $1 risk cost. Shane enters 2023 with plenty of upside, but a lower floor than most with his skillset. A 3rd round pick feels expensive. As with Glasnow, Greene and Lodolo, a safer early foundation will grant wiggle room later to take moonshots. 

This is not nearly an exhaustive list. We can do this all day. So please do. Fire up the BABS database, download an excel sheet, and sort the list any which way. Unexpected side-by-sides pop up and help crystallize comparisons. BABS is indeed malleable, not in her analysis (that’s cold), but in her ability to take on many forms. Each iteration has the potential to mine a competitive advantage. Use it. 

 

NOTES: The asset ratings above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.