2023 Risk: A Quantitative Look

Our risk cost data allow to do a more robust analysis of the player pool and opens up opportunities to better manage liabilities. Some draft rounds are riskier than others and that will help us decide when to jump in and when to play it safe. Here is a bunch of data to chew on, based on the ADP Top 345 (enough to fill a 15-team mixed league).

Injuries: 30% of the player pool has an injury liability, down significantly from last year’s 51%. Unlike last year as well, over two thirds of those are major injury risks (it was nearly a 50-50 split with minor risks last year).

Current drafters are doing an excellent job avoiding health downside in the first three rounds, with only seven of 45 players having any notable injury risk. The minefields start in Round 4, with Jazz Chishom (pictured), Luis Robert, Ozzie Albies and Max Scherzer presenting the (INJ) mark, and Zack Wheeler and Ryan Pressly adding their own (inj-) risks.

There are more safe harbors in later rounds. The rounds with five or fewer players with any injury risk: 5, 7, 13, 14, 18, 21 and 22. All the rest will require more careful navigation. The rounds with the most potholes are 10, 15 and 20.

Experience: 29% of the Top 345 have less than two full years of major league experience, down from 32% last year. 14% have one year but less than two years of experience. 16% have less than one full year of experience. Think about that — our rosters are averaging between 3 and 4 players with less than a year of MLB experience. But it matters when we are drafting these players.

In the first four rounds, there are only three players with less than a year of experience — Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider and Adley Rutschman — and another five with less than two years. Drafting them is still risky if you want to play it conservative with your roster’s core.

Here is how we are taking on that risk. These are the percentage of players with some experience risk, by groups of four rounds:

1-4: 13%
5-8: 26%
9-12: 28%
13-16: 35%
17-20: 37%
21-23: 38%

It’s just another reminder that it will get tougher and tougher to stay within your risk budget the further you get into the draft.

As we get closer to Opening Day, there will be some shifting, but it’s pretty much universal (and logical) that the deeper you get into the draft, the more overall risk you’ll encounter. That begs for more care in the earlygoing when it comes to building towards your risk budget.

Risk costs: While we advise you to set your own risk budget, the players in the Top 345 pool do have their own costs. In fact, there is $625 worth of risk across the pool, or about $1.80 per player (down from $2.07 last year). A team rostering average risk would accumulate $41.66 in these costs, down from $47.50 last year. That’s still pretty high, but you can do better.

Part of the challenge – particularly in snake draft leagues – is to know which rounds have more risk. Here are the average total risk costs per player, for each round. Two interesting takeaways: 1) this year’s player pool is a lot less risky than last year, particularly in the first two rounds, and 2) there are several pockets of high risk, and some in the same rounds as last year (where are our heads at in Round 20?).

Rd     2023    2022
====  =====   =====
1      0.85    1.78
2      0.87    2.68
3      1.23    1.23
4      2.30    2.27
5      0.67    1.18
6      0.52    1.30
7      1.32    1.45
8      1.53    1.78
9      1.27    1.67
10     2.33    1.77
11     1.38    2.08
12     1.63    2.20
13     0.98    1.57
14     1.90    2.38
15     2.62    2.00
16     2.13    2.73
17     2.12    2.13
18     1.93    2.48
19     2.22    2.32
20     3.87    3.67
21     2.30    1.75
22     2.03    2.82
23     2.68    2.25

How is this helpful? Well, it gives you license to take on the $7.00 risk of Jazz Chisholm or Luis Robert in Round 4, knowing that there will be plenty of low risk options in Rounds 5 and 6 to help offset that pick. Round 13 is a relatively safe harbor too.

Round 20 is a major mine field, once again. Last year, it was filled with $5-plus players like Kyle Lewis, Nick Madrigal, Marco Gonzalez, Max Stassi, Jesus Luzardo and Eric Haase. This year, there’s Jorge Soler, Bo Naylor, Yoan Moncada and Tyler Mahle, and a few more in the $4 range.

Still, with all this risk, it is possible to assemble a roster that clocks in under $30. And it’s easier this year than last year.