2023 Points game strategies

by Greg Fishwick

Note: This article is designed to be read first in a series, followed by “Best Ball strategies for 2023” and “Using BABS in Gladiator Roto and Guillotine Points Leagues.” To minimize repetition, we invite readers to familiarize themselves with the pieces in order.

If BABS’s biggest strength is in drafting, her super power is in adapting her system to individual league requirements. Let’s look at how to do that in points game leagues.

First, forget about categories. Balancing or punting them doesn’t matter. Total points are the name of the game, and it doesn’t matter where your points come from. No need to worry about targets for splitting your budget between hitting and pitching. But you must begin with a thorough analysis of your point system to create an effective draft strategy.

Analyze the point system and roster requirements to create your draft list

Every expert will remind you to pay close attention to your league’s scoring system—particularly in points leagues. But BABS takes that advice to another level. Knowing the scoring system is not enough. You must analyze it to take advantage of its imbalances. This first step guides creation of your draft list by allowing you to prioritize BABS’ Asset Groups based on scoring system and roster requirements.

Every league has offensive points for hits. Some award additional points for extra base hits, and some for walks. BABS’s Power (Pw) asset column is the strongest indicator of XBH ability. To find triples, look for players with (Pw) and Speed (Sp) assets. Players with an (*) are those with a historical walk rate of 10 percent or greater. And keep an eye on the Liabilities section, specifically the skill liabilities. Batters with (|-A) are BA drags, which means fewer hits and fewer points. In leagues that penalize for strikeouts, this is also a hindrance, as contact rate is incorporated into batting effectiveness (A+/AV/a).

For starting pitchers, BABS assets are a great barometer of success in points leagues. Pitching effectiveness (E+/ER/e) incorporates both ERA and (indirectly) WHIP. Most points leagues reward ERA in some way, usually by awarding points per inning pitched and penalizing for earned runs allowed. The same goes for WHIP, as negative points are issued for hits or walks allowed. All leagues give points for strikeouts, so targeting pitchers with any sort of (K+/KK/k) asset is an obvious play.

Most point systems assign negative points, and that’s another BABS super power. She’s the only one identifying Skills Liabilities and quantifying Risk Cost. A negative performance hurts in roto leagues, but there you can never be more than one point away from the next team up in category standings. It’s worse in a point system, because the overall points gap widens when your players’ poor performances are compared with opponents’ decent-to-dominating performances. Ineffective (|-E) pitchers are worst of all, because most systems subtract points for ER, BB, and Hits allowed, which are all part of Pitching Effectiveness. Combine that with low strikeout totals, and you get BABS’s All-Avoid (|-EK) starters Dean Kremer, Adrian Houser, Zach Davies, Cole Irvin, Jordan Lyles, Marco Gonzales, and Madison Bumgarner—EEEK!

Better to go with (E+/ER,K+/KK) relievers. Closers are historically fluid, so after the consensus saves leaders are off the board, BABS can help you speculate on the best relievers remaining. Target extreme and high-level skills and gather a sound points base with the hope that some Saves might materialize. BABS also provides a (SV/sv-) projection for the range of saves a pitcher might accumulate.

Overview of point system examples

Here’s an overview of how the process of analyzing the system and creating your draft list works, looking at three popular public points league games in alphabetical order.

 

HITTING	AB	BB	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	SB	SO
ESPN		1	1	2	3	4	1	1	1	-1
Fantrax		1	1	1	1	4	1	1	3
NFBC	-1	1	4	4	4	10	2	2	5
PITCHING	IP	K	H	BB	ER	QS	W	SV	HLD	L
ESPN	3	1	-1	-1	-2		2	5	2	-2
Fantrax	1.5	1.5	-.5	-.5	-1.5	3	3	6
NFBC	3	1	-1	-1	-2		6	8
ROSTER	Tot/Act	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	CI	MI	UT	OF	P	B
ESPN	19/16	1	1	1	1	1			1	3	7	3
Fantrax	40/22	1*	1*	1*	1*	1*			3	5**	9***	18
NFBC	42/23	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	9	19

*roster maximum of five, **roster maximum of 13, ***roster maximum of 22

Focusing on the relative values of solo HRs and single SBs as an example, we get:

Event	ESPN	Fantrax	NFBC
Solo HR	6	6	13
SB	1	3	5

A HR is worth 6 SB in ESPN leagues, 2 SB in Fantrax leagues, and 2.6 SB in NFBC leagues. On the Hitting side of your ESPN roster, those relative values will inform your prioritization of BABS Power and Speed Asset Groups, subject to other considerations such as those mentioned below. In this case, as a starting point, you’d load your ESPN draft list at the top with all the Asset Group combinations including P+, PW, and p. Next, since the ESPN point system subtracts a point each time a batter strikes out, BABS’s Batting Effectiveness must be integrated into those priorities. That would change the top of your draft list to begin with (P+,A+), then (P+,AV), then (PW,A+) and (PW,AV). And to minimize those negative points, you’d avoid hitters who carry Batting Effectiveness Liabilities (|-A).

Among your Full-time top targets, Yordan Alvarez (P+,A+) and Mookie Betts (P+,AV), pictured, would join Aaron Judge (P+,AV); and Corey Seager (PW,A+), Kyle Tucker (PW,s,AV), and Julio Rodriguez (PW,S+,AV) would be close behind. Fernando Tatis’s (P+,S+,AV|INJ), may intrigue, but 20 games remaining on his suspension and 167 days on the IL in the past three years contribute to his -$5.00 Risk Cost, so he would slide down, while Matt Chapman (P+|-A) might fall off completely.

In-draft and in-season adjustments

As you fully apply this process to your own circumstances, remember roster requirements. It’s inevitable you’ll be sniped/outbid in the draft and beset by injuries during the season. Multi-position players help avoid negative points when that happens. A player’s low, zero, or even negative scores can create a double-whammy of a scoring gap when your opponents are putting up positive points. Multi-position players provide flexibility to maximize your bench and FAAB. Ron Shandler’s 2023 Baseball Forecaster lists all multi-position players on page 274.

Along the lines of minimizing points gaps between you and your opponents, a parting point on the dangers of delaying or punting positions—especially catcher and most especially those in two-catcher leagues. When comparing, say, the 10th catcher on your draft list with the 10th OF, it looks like a no-brainer to go with the OF. But considering the points gaps between the 10th and 11th catchers and the 10th and 11th OFs, it may be wiser to grab the 10th catcher. For example, in the ESPN article on its point system games, Tristan Cockcroft suggested taking Will Smith (PW,a*) ahead of Nolan Arenado (p,AV).

Trends

At the macro level, humidors are now in all parks and juiced balls are now all “a-way out there and gone.” As a result, we are seeing fewer HRs from hitters without Power Assets, making Power an even more valuable asset, and better results from more middle-of-the-rotation starters and middle relievers, expanding the pitcher pool. Be on the lookout for emerging trends (anticipated and unanticipated) created by this season’s new rules.

A parting point on ADPs. ADPs can give you a sense of general market trends when you sort them for recency, but unless you also sort them for your league’s point system, they should not be relied upon for anything more. Avoid blindly following generic points rankings or ADPs. Let your opponents accept the adage that “pitchers are worth more than hitters in points leagues” without studying the point system, and be confident in your own draft strategy and draft list.