2023 playing time and the inefficient marketplace

If you scan down many of the asset groups, you’ll observe that the marketplace seems to be forgetting about the importance of stockpiling playing time. After all, counting stats are important. Even if a hitter is not source of power or speed, those runs and RBI still help your team. And how many strikeouts are you willing to sacrifice in the name of ERA and WHIP?

So, any time a player with lesser AB or IP is elevated in the ADP rankings, it opens up a potential opportunity to roster someone who can still help your stats but at a lesser cost. Let’s look through some of the asset groups for full-timers ranked behind mid-timers.

In the elite (ER,K+) asset group, full-timer Kevin Gausman is going two full rounds behind mid-timer Brandon Woodruff and a one full round behind mid-timer Carlos Rodon. All three possess roughly comparable skills profiles. However, Woodruff comes with some minor injury baggage and Rodon now pitches half his games in the tough New York market (though his career record in the Bronx is 25 IP, 2.16 ERA with 24 K). That might make Gausman – liability-free, incidentally – a better pick to wait on.

There are nine pitchers in the (ER,KK) group who are ranked in the Top 100:

ADP  Player            PT    LIAB
--   ----------------  --    -----------
40   Aaron Nola         F
40   Shane McClanahan   M    inj-, e
46   Justin Verlander   M    Nw, Ag, Rg-
56   Zack Wheeler       M    inj-
60   Shane Bieber       F
66   Luis Castillo      M
74   Zac Gallen         M    Rg-
83   Joe Musgrove       F
83   Yu Darvish         F    Ag

Bieber (pictured), Musgrove and Darvish are all projected for more innings, which given their comparable strikeout ratings, should mean more strikeouts too. And as much as McClanahan, Verlander and Wheeler are going earlier in drafts, they come with risk. So, while this Mets fan would love to own Verlander, I look at this table and think, “perhaps I should wait a round and draft Bieber.”

In the (ER,k) group, mid-timer George Kirby is going one round ahead of full-timer Logan Webb. This is purely a function of the “shiny new penny” syndrome. In this case, and all cases, if you can fit the risk cost into your budget, go nuts. But drafting Kirby instead of Webb will add $2.00. In the 8th round, I’d still rather stockpile more reliable players because I know I won’t be able to avoid the mega-risks once I get much past round 15.

There are other examples as you scan the groups. Mid-timer Whit Merrifield (s,a) is going ahead of full-timers Bryson Stott, Ha-Seong Kim and Tony Kemp, all by at least 30 spots. Full-timers Randal Grichuk and Jesse Winker (p,a) are being drafted behind mid-timers like Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon. Full-timer Max Kepler (a) is going over 250 spots later than mid-timer Oscar Gonzalez. Yes, some of these are extreme.

However, as playing time expectations start getting firmed up, some of these anomalies might dissipate. For now, they are opportunities to draft some potential profit onto your rosters.

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.