2023 Player History Scan Tutorial

(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

The Player History Scans are accessible from the BABS database page. Simply enter a player’s name in the batter or pitcher box to produce a report containing annual data since 2014 (when this site launched). Each scan contains a player’s basic statistics, along with his end-of-season BABS Asset and Liability ratings. His ADP and average auction value coming into each season is also listed. The utility of this exercise lies in its simple, BABSian (read:sober) analysis. It’s a noise-killer, potential helium-buster and even a gem-unearther. 

A history scan can be useful to ask yourself questions about any type of player. Fully on-board this year? Run a scan. Skeptical of how the market sees a pitcher? Run a scan. Go here and enter a player’s name. There are two different search fields for batters and pitchers. From there, you will be presented with a historical ledger of BABS ratings, along with projected assets for 2023. Let’s give it a try.


Year Team Pos IP W Sv K ERA WHIP PT Sk K Sv Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 DET 1 28.7 1 0 19 8.16 1.88 -ER
2015 ARI 1 127.7 5 0 119 3.52 1.33 M e k
2016 ARI 1 174.3 8 0 218 4.90 1.47 M K+ -ER
2017 ARI 1 162 15 0 218 2.89 1.15 M ER K+ 215 $5
2018 ARI 1 123.7 6 0 165 3.93 1.35 M e K+ inj- Rg 47 $20
2019 ARI 1 174.3 12 0 235 4.34 1.34 M K+ INJ 125 $10
2020 TOR 1 51.7 2 0 68 6.62 1.90 M KK -E 166 $8
2021 TOR 1 193.3 13 0 248 2.84 1.05 F ER K+ 320 $1
2022 SEA 1 189 12 0 212 3.71 1.19 F e KK Pk+ Nw Rg- 50 $19
PROJ p SEA 1 M e KK 100 $13

“Ok, we have Ray’s BABS ratings dating back to 2014. So what? It’s just an assessment of how he did, we want predictive value”.

Fair enough. BABS’ draft rating for 2023 is also present, which is informed by the historical ledger. Now comes the fun part. What does the data say to you?

Ray’s current ADP is 100. Compare that with how fantasy managers have drafted him in the past. What’s different? What’s similar? From here we can begin to construct the Robbie Ray narrative for 2023. What do the assets look like? The liabilities? Any trends in either direction? The narrative is not just what we see on the page. It also includes the news and noise out there in the ether. Ask the questions. Consult the data. Write the story. It might go something like this:

The narrative: The yo-yo nature of Robbie Ray’s year-over-year output continues apace…Or does it? Maybe it’s the expectations that yo-yo. The breakout in 2017 chased his ADP all the way up to 47 prior to the 2018 season. Disappointed fantasy managers torpedoed his price in ‘19 into the 120s. The 2020 Covid season was disastrous and drafters all but ignored him in ‘21 (ADP 320). Those who took a chance got a Cy Young and league winner, driving up the draft price last season (ADP 50). Ray “fell short” again, and can be had around pick 100 as of this writing. 

BABS’ take:  The strikeout numbers (and skills) are still there. Ray’s 212 Ks last year were good for 7th across both leagues. He also tallied 189 IP, good for 15th most in MLB. Are those the numbers of a 40th pitcher off the board? Last year, BABS did warn of regression and Ray’s arrival as a “new” player in Seattle. Now settled, can Robbie earn his draft slot? BABS projects the skills to be on par with 2022, though she hedges a bit on his IP output (Playing Time-M). 

Now, let’s try a batter. And maybe before you read mine below, think out your assessment, then see how we differ. 


Year Team Pos AB HR SB Avg OBP PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Sk Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg ADP $$
2014 PIT o9 495 13 30 291 356 F PW S+ AV
2015 PIT o9 579 19 30 287 337 F p SB AV
2016 PIT o9 489 9 47 311 362 F S+ AV
2017 PIT o9 309 7 21 275 333 M S+ a 24 $27
2018 PIT o9 559 20 33 277 327 F SB a 49 $20
2019 PIT o9 539 23 25 295 342 F SB AV 38 $22
2020 MIA o9 228 6 10 281 340 F SB AV 29 $25
2021 OAK o9 467 12 47 308 381 F S+ AV 51 $19
2022 NYM o9 466 16 18 292 347 M SB AV INJ Nw Rg- 31 $24
PROJ p NYM o9 F SB AV inj- 78 $15

The narrative: Marte is getting older. His most valuable asset, speed, declines with age. I’m tired of drafting Marte in the first few rounds only to get underwhelming production. That elusive $30 season has never materialized, and the older he gets, the longer the odds. I’ll take my speed chances with Daulton Varsho or Corbin Carroll. 

BABS’ take: There may not be a more consistent asset pairing than Marte’s speed/batting effectiveness combo (SB/AV). It’s been present in some form for nine consecutive seasons, and BABS projects a tenth. As Marte approaches his age 34 season, we wouldn’t be surprised with a speed decline. BUT (!!) Starling’s acquisition cost hasn’t been this cheap since, well…ever. BABS’ ADP data only goes back to 2017, and Marte’s stats prior to that season were fantastic. BABSian wisdom cautions against overreacting to last season’s preconceived notions and subsequent player output. If Marte proves healthy this spring (core muscle surgery in November), ADP 78 could be a steal. 

Did you attempt your own thoughts? How did they come out? Are you able to see the value in this sort of analysis? It’s not all that different from other forms of player profiling, with one caveat: We have BABS. Her simplicity allows for quick thinking and fast experimentation. The player pool crystallizes rapidly when BABS is utilized.