2023 Player History Scan Tutorial

by Pat Cloghessy

The Player History Scans are accessible from the BABS database page. Simply enter a player’s name in the batter or pitcher box to produce a report containing annual data since 2014 (when this site launched). Each scan contains a player’s basic statistics, along with his end-of-season BABS Asset and Liability ratings. His ADP and average auction value coming into each season is also listed. The utility of this exercise lies in its simple, BABSian (read:sober) analysis. It’s a noise-killer, potential helium-buster and even a gem-unearther. 

A history scan can be useful to ask yourself questions about any type of player. Fully on-board this year? Run a scan. Skeptical of how the market sees a pitcher? Run a scan. Go here and enter a player’s name. There are two different search fields for batters and pitchers. From there, you will be presented with a historical ledger of BABS ratings, along with projected assets for 2023. Let’s give it a try.

ROBBIE RAY

									ASSETS						LIABILITIES							MARKET
Year	Team	Pos	IP	W	Sv	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Sk	K	Sv	Pk	Rg	Sk	Inj	Ex	Nw	Pk	Ag	Rg	ADP	$$
2014	DET	1	28.7	1	0	19	8.16	1.88							-ER
2015	ARI	1	127.7	5	0	119	3.52	1.33	M	e	k
2016	ARI	1	174.3	8	0	218	4.90	1.47	M		K+				-ER
2017	ARI	1	162	15	0	218	2.89	1.15	M	ER	K+											215	$5
2018	ARI	1	123.7	6	0	165	3.93	1.35	M	e	K+					inj-					Rg	47	$20
2019	ARI	1	174.3	12	0	235	4.34	1.34	M		K+					INJ						125	$10
2020	TOR	1	51.7	2	0	68	6.62	1.90	M		KK				-E							166	$8
2021	TOR	1	193.3	13	0	248	2.84	1.05	F	ER	K+											320	$1
2022	SEA	1	189	12	0	212	3.71	1.19	F	e	KK		Pk+					Nw			Rg-	50	$19
PROJ p	SEA	1							M	e	KK											100	$13

“Ok, we have Ray’s BABS ratings dating back to 2014. So what? It’s just an assessment of how he did, we want predictive value”.

Fair enough. BABS’ draft rating for 2023 is also present, which is informed by the historical ledger. Now comes the fun part. What does the data say to you?

Ray’s current ADP is 100. Compare that with how fantasy managers have drafted him in the past. What’s different? What’s similar? From here we can begin to construct the Robbie Ray narrative for 2023. What do the assets look like? The liabilities? Any trends in either direction? The narrative is not just what we see on the page. It also includes the news and noise out there in the ether. Ask the questions. Consult the data. Write the story. It might go something like this:

The narrative: The yo-yo nature of Robbie Ray’s year-over-year output continues apace…Or does it? Maybe it’s the expectations that yo-yo. The breakout in 2017 chased his ADP all the way up to 47 prior to the 2018 season. Disappointed fantasy managers torpedoed his price in ‘19 into the 120s. The 2020 Covid season was disastrous and drafters all but ignored him in ‘21 (ADP 320). Those who took a chance got a Cy Young and league winner, driving up the draft price last season (ADP 50). Ray “fell short” again, and can be had around pick 100 as of this writing. 

BABS’ take:  The strikeout numbers (and skills) are still there. Ray’s 212 Ks last year were good for 7th across both leagues. He also tallied 189 IP, good for 15th most in MLB. Are those the numbers of a 40th pitcher off the board? Last year, BABS did warn of regression and Ray’s arrival as a “new” player in Seattle. Now settled, can Robbie earn his draft slot? BABS projects the skills to be on par with 2022, though she hedges a bit on his IP output (Playing Time-M). 

Now, let’s try a batter. And maybe before you read mine below, think out your assessment, then see how we differ. 

STARLING MARTE

								ASSETS						LIABILITIES							MARKET
Year	Team	Pos	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av	Pk	Rg	Sk	Inj	Ex	Nw	Pk	Ag	Rg	ADP	$$
2014	PIT	o9	495	13	30	291	356	F	PW	S+	AV
2015	PIT	o9	579	19	30	287	337	F	p	SB	AV
2016	PIT	o9	489	9	47	311	362	F		S+	AV
2017	PIT	o9	309	7	21	275	333	M		S+	a										24	$27
2018	PIT	o9	559	20	33	277	327	F		SB	a										49	$20
2019	PIT	o9	539	23	25	295	342	F		SB	AV										38	$22
2020	MIA	o9	228	6	10	281	340	F		SB	AV										29	$25
2021	OAK	o9	467	12	47	308	381	F		S+	AV										51	$19
2022	NYM	o9	466	16	18	292	347	M		SB	AV				INJ		Nw			Rg-	31	$24
PROJ p	NYM	o9						F		SB	AV				inj-						78	$15

The narrative: Marte is getting older. His most valuable asset, speed, declines with age. I’m tired of drafting Marte in the first few rounds only to get underwhelming production. That elusive $30 season has never materialized, and the older he gets, the longer the odds. I’ll take my speed chances with Daulton Varsho or Corbin Carroll. 

BABS’ take: There may not be a more consistent asset pairing than Marte’s speed/batting effectiveness combo (SB/AV). It’s been present in some form for nine consecutive seasons, and BABS projects a tenth. As Marte approaches his age 34 season, we wouldn’t be surprised with a speed decline. BUT (!!) Starling’s acquisition cost hasn’t been this cheap since, well…ever. BABS’ ADP data only goes back to 2017, and Marte’s stats prior to that season were fantastic. BABSian wisdom cautions against overreacting to last season’s preconceived notions and subsequent player output. If Marte proves healthy this spring (core muscle surgery in November), ADP 78 could be a steal. 

Did you attempt your own thoughts? How did they come out? Are you able to see the value in this sort of analysis? It’s not all that different from other forms of player profiling, with one caveat: We have BABS. Her simplicity allows for quick thinking and fast experimentation. The player pool crystallizes rapidly when BABS is utilized.