2023 Off-Season Transactions – Hitters

by Doug Gruber

Finally, a normal baseball off-season!  No lockouts or work stoppages.  Free agent spending was at record levels, and many other players were moved via trades. Let’s look at the major transactions that occurred, and view those from a BABS perspective for the affected teams and players, starting with the hitters.  (Next update we look at the pitchers.)  Starting with the big ones.

Aaron Judge (P+,AV) remained a Yankee, signing a 9-year contract worth $40 million annually. BABS Take: BABS prefers blue and orange over pinstripes, but will set aside emotions, focus on the asset ratings and Judge’s current market price. BABS endorses Judge as a solid foundational pick in the mid-first round.

Philadelphia and Trea Turner (p,S+,AV) agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract. BABS Take: What can BABS say other than congratulation Phillies! Turner should be drafted with confidence with a Top 4 pick.

San Diego signed Xander Bogaerts (a) to an $11-year, $280 million deal. BABS Take: BABS was out on Bogaerts while he was in Boston, and now even moreso with his new team and park downgrade. Bogaerts has been reliable from a health standpoint, but his power skills have declined, and his plate skills do not profile as a .300 hitter. Let others use their 6th round pick here.

The Twins won the Carlos Correa (p,a) hot-potato sweepstakes, settling on a 6-year deal to keep him in Minnesota. BABS Take: Correa brings two above average skills, but his 8th round ADP is too rich for what he offers, which last year was a nice BA, but only 22 HRs, 64 RBIs and no steals for a third straight year.

The Giants spent $61.5 million for outfielders Mitch Haniger (p,a|INJ) and Michael Conforto (p,a|INJ). BABS Take: SF finished runner-up on Judge, but Haniger and Conforto provide an upgrade to the corner outfield positions, if both can remain healthy. And both are worthwhile targets at their ADPs of Rounds 12 and 16, respectively.

The Cubs went on a major shopping spree, signing Dansby Swanson (p,s,a), Cody Bellinger (p,s|-A), Trey Mancini (p) and Eric Hosmer (a|inj-). BABS Take: Swanson is fresh off a career best $35 season, his triple-asset profile validates his 5-category production, and he has only missed two games in two years. He shares an asset group with Lindor, but his ADP is a full three rounds later.  BABS says INVEST in Swanson. As for the others, BABS is privately rooting for comeback seasons for all three but won’t be drafting them.

Houston and Jose Abreu (p,AV) agreed to a 3-year, $60 million deal. BABS Take: Abreu’s HR numbers were down despite an increase in hard contact, and one could forgive falling short of his customary 100 RBIs based on a terrible year for team Chisox. The positives…Abreu still hit over .300, moving to Houston should be a great fit, and his ADP has fallen near Round 8.  BABS is a buyer.

In a pair of trades, the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez (PW,a) from the Blue Jays and Kolten Wong (a|inj-) from the Brewers. They also signed free-agent A.J. Pollock (p,a) to a one-year deal. BABS Take: Hernandez is a skills upgrade for the Mariners outfield, however, there are several comparable players available as many as 100 picks after his 5th round price tag. BABS will also avoid Wong given his skill rating, injury risk and a relocation to an unfavorable home venue. Pollock is intriguing as he still owns a dual-asset profile yet is being ignored in most leagues so far. He may be worth a late dart.

The Brewers acquired Jesse Winker (p,a|INJ) in the trade with the Mariners. BABS Take: Winker was a BABS target last year, but his season in Seattle did not go well. He is only one year removed from a 24/71/.305 line and now he heads to a more friendly park. Along with regression odds in his favor, Winker makes for an interesting selection at pick 300.

Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Oakland completed a three-team trade, with the marquee names being Sean Murphy (p,a) to the Braves, William Contreras (p,a|e) to the Brewers and the A’s landing OF Esteury Ruiz (S+|-PA,EX).  Atlanta then signed Murphy to a 7-year contract extension. BABS Take: From a fantasy perspective, this trade is fascinating as BABS rates Murphy, Contreras and Braves incumbent Travis D’Arnaud as having identical (p,a) skills profiles. BABS prefers Contreras as the draft priority due to his path to full time at-bats and his round 9 ADP. D’Arnaud could also make for a proficient C2 target if his price keeps falling. For Ruiz, BABS gives him the scarce (S+) rating, which was apparent with his 48 steals at AAA. However, his skills liabilities in the other categories would potentially do more damage than the gains from his potential SBs.

Josh Bell (AV) reached an agreement with the Guardians for two years and $33 million. BABS Take: Bell steps into a favorable spot, hitting in the middle of the Guardians lineup behind Kwan, Rosario, and Ramirez. BABS recognizes Bell’s BA skills but sees his power as below league average, citing a decline in hard contact, and a strong tilt towards ground balls. BABS would prefer first base options such as Christian Walker (PW,a) or Rowdy Tellez (PW,a) near Bell’s ADP.

There is a new catcher in St Louis with the Cards agreeing to terms with Willson Contreras (PW,a|inj-). BABS Take: Contreras remains one of the most highly skilled players at the catcher position, highlighted by more than 20 HRs over his last three full seasons. Regression tailwinds may be blowing also, making Contreras a solid target in Round 7. The Cubs now turn to a timeshare between Yan Gomes (a) and Tucker Barnhart (|-PA). Only Gomes should be considered as a late round C2.

Brandon Nimmo (a), pictured, looks as if he will be a Met for life, agreeing to an 8-year contract. The Mets also signed OF Tommy Pham (|-A). BABS Take: Nimmo is more valuable to the Mets than to your fantasy rosters, unless you are in an OBP league. Based on his skills rating, he likely will not return value on his 12th round price tag.  For Pham, he becomes the Mets 4th outfielder, but even if a starting spot opened, he does not offer fantasy interest.

The Angels traded for Hunter Renfroe (PW,a|inj-) and inked Brandon Drury (p,a) to a two-year deal. BABS Take: Renfroe and Drury provide a significant upgrade in skills over previous options Jo Adell (|-A,e), David Fletcher (a,-P|INJ) and Luis Rengifo (|-P). BABS is a purchaser of both players at their ADPs.

The Blue Jays added Daulton Varsho (PW,s) from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Lourdes Gurriel (AV|INJ) and Gabriel Moreno (AV|-P,EX). BABS Take: Varsho still has catcher eligibility, has an appealing power/speed skill set and moves to the Rogers Centre where the fences are moving further in. All that said, BABS thinks his price in the 3rd round is too expensive. For Arizona, BABS is out on Gurriel due to his single asset profile, injury risk and change in home parks. For Moreno, he enters a competition with Carson Kelly (p|-A,INJ) for the starting job. While Moreno may approach his prospect potential some day, don’t invest in that potential for 2023.

The White Sox and Andrew Benintendi (AV|inj-) agreed to a 5-year contract. BABS Take: Benintendi’s value lies in his batting effectiveness skills, as his power and running game have dried up. He should get a boost from his new home park, but not enough to consider him for more than a reserve outfield spot.

Minnesota signed free agents Christian Vasquez (a|-P) and Joey Gallo (P+|-A), and traded for OF Michael Taylor (s|-A). BABS Take: With all these negative skills liabilities, there is not much here to help your fantasy batting lineups. In 2019, Vazquez had appeal when he slugged 23 HRs, but he hasn’t totaled as many over the past three seasons combined. Gallo had his worst fantasy season in 2022, and his only hope is help from the shift ban. But do not count on it, and do not draft Gallo. Taylor’s only fantasy value will be for Byron Buxton owners, allowing Buxton to save wear and tear at DH when Taylor is in the lineup.

The Dodgers have had a quiet off-season, with their most notable signings being J.D. Martinez (PW,a) and Miguel Rojas (a|-P). BABS Take: BABS is bullish on Martinez based on his power/batting skill set and his 16th round ADP. Beyond that, it appears that the Dodgers are planning to replace the Turners and Bellinger with a combination of Rojas and their home-grown prospects. BABS isn’t buying into Rojas or the others… Gavin Lux (a), Miguel Vargas (|-A,EX) or James Outman (PW|-A,EX).

Last, and maybe least, the Red Sox signed Justin Turner (p,AV), Adam Duvall (P+|-A,INJ) and Jorge Alfaro (-) and traded for Adalberto Mondesi (S+|-A,INJ). BABS Take: A disappointing off-season for Rex Sox fans, as they lose Bogaerts and Martinez to free agency, and Trevor Story to injury. Of the new replacements, only Turner makes the BABS cut, as he should continue to provide power and average as the full-time DH, at an attractive price near pick 300.

 

NOTES: The ratings above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.