2023 Mailbag – March 23
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BABS appears to be a more sophisticated approach than the Mayberry Method. Am I correct? If not, would appreciate understanding the differences; and I noticed that Pete Alonso is classified as a PW for power instead of P+. Based on his history, what would it take to get into the P+
For those unfamiliar, the Mayberry Method is a player evaluation system at BaseballHQ.com that creates a 7-character profile for each player, assessing both skill and risk. I developed that 13 years ago. BABS was an outgrowth of Mayberry, embracing imprecision even more and creating a structure for roster construction. Is it more sophisticated? Only in that it is intended to do more, but the Mayberry ratings are actually more detailed.
As for Alonso, his power metrics sit right at the cusp of the cut-off for (P+). He is an outlier in that regard as he is the only one projected for more than 33 HR who has that (PW) rating. Elevating his HR/FB rate closer to 25% would help (it was 19% last year and projected for 21%). Alonso does have a history of (P+) ratings, however, so it would not be unreasonable to move him into the (P+,AV) group with Judge, Trout and Harper.
Is Tatis still worth $30 in 10-team league 5×5 roto?
It’s close. I always advise building a Stars & Scrubs team in mixed leagues, particularly in a shallow league as yours. Best to pay what it takes to build a solid core because your end-gamers will all still be very good players, with plenty more on the waiver wire. It would not be unreasonable to pay up for Tatis but make sure you support him with a foundation of lower risk players.
What are Seth Lugo and Tanner Houck rated for only “P”art-time innings? So few others have this, but the common thread seems to be they are being groomed to be starters.
Yes, they are being groomed as starters but pitchers who do not have a recent history of handling that workload are not locks to put up the innings. Lugo hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2018 and his career high was 136 in 2015. Houck has not pitched 100 innings since 2019 and his career high was 119 in Single-A ball a year earlier. The P rating corresponds with a projection up to 120 IP, which seems safe right now.