2023 Hidden Gems Outside the Top 500

by Curt Brooks

One of BABS’ unique uses lies in identifying under-appreciated talent. Here we explore a group of players the market is (almost) totally ignoring, each with an ADP above 500, yet BABS thinks highly of their skills. And the best part? A number of these players have full- or mid-time playing time projections, making them even more valuable. The trade-off is that most will increase your risk, so make sure you budget appropriately. ADPs (as of 3/15) are listed in parenthesis behind the players’ names. Anyone playing in “only” or “draft-and-hold leagues should find some helpful names here.

HITTERS

BABS says not to sleep on Garrett Cooper (p,a|INJ) (523), slated to be the Marlins’ starting first baseman and will bring both power and batting skills to your lineup. Tony Kemp (s,a|) (549) is both a starting second baseman and a projected leadoff hitter but is basically undrafted! J.P. Crawford (a,*|-P) (504) is also projected for full-time at-bats after signing a large contract extension, and looks to shore up your batting average – just make sure you’ve covered your power needs elsewhere.

A.J. Pollock (p,a) (532) carries one of the lowest risk costs in the group as he looks to serve as a primary DH and backup outfielder on his new club. Matt Carpenter (P+,a|INJ) (547) is looking to continue his late career resurgence as he comes off a foot fracture that prematurely ended his season last year. Carlos Santana (p,a,*,Rg+|) (539) carries only a couple of minor liabilities as he heads to a new team, and as one of the players most shifted against, he holds further potential upside.

There are other extreme single-asset players who seemingly aren’t even after-thoughts to most drafters. Myles Straw (S+|-P) (512) for late speed but be wary of the absence of power. Serving as a backup to all three OF positions for the Dodgers, Trayce Thompson (P+,*|e) (528) could be a golden power source to round out your outfield or your bench. Both Patrick Wisdom (P+|-A,e) (508) and David Villar (P+,|-A,EX) (572) also carry BABS’ extreme power skill as well as a mid-time playing projection – just be sure to account for their batting skill liability.

There are even a couple of triple-skilled players with ADPs over 500. Royce Lewis (PW,SB,a|INJ+,EX) (551) has an extraordinary skill set but is coming off another major knee injury and still carries the experience liability. This is a player to own, especially if you can stash him in an IL slot. But perhaps the most impressive skills (outside of Fernando Tatis) are owned by one Elly De La Cruz (P+,S+,a|EX) (519). He just turned 21 years old and oozes talent, but it is very raw talent nonetheless as he has only played 47 games at AA so far. BUT…he should be on your radar at this point.

PITCHERS

Michael Lorenzen (e,k|INJ) (561) is a dual asset starter and projected for 120+ IP this year.  Clarke Schmidt (pictured) has a similar profile (e,k|EX) (573) and could break camp in the Yankees rotation. Tarik Skubal (e,KK|INJ+,EX) will likely be out until early June but has the skills to be a worthy contributor later in the season.

Cody Morris (ER,K+|INJ,EX,Rg-) (520) carries both big skills (this is Cole/Woodruff/Rodon level of skill) but similarly big risks. Once he overcomes his current lat injury, he could be in for some starts in a talented Guardians rotation. Adbert Alzolay (ER,KK|INJ,e) is right behind Morris in both skills and liabilities. He is likely to be transitioned from starter to reliever this year, but regardless of his role, the skills are certainly there. James Paxton (e,K+|INJ) (546) didn’t pitch last year following TJS and is likely to open the season on the IL (hamstring), but he definitely has the skills to help your staff over the course of the season.

A quartet of pitchers all boast the (k) skill and you only need to watch for a couple of minor injury tags. Both Jonathan Brubaker (584) and Rich Hill (654) will be in the Pirates’ rotation this year with Hill tagged with the (inj-) risk. These two are joined by Drew Smyly (small injury risk) and German Marquez, each of whom can contribute to your staff. Finally, the lesser-known of the NPB signings this off-season is Shintaro Fujinami (KK|EX) (597). Overseas, he was known for his fastball and will probably rack up some strikeouts but watch his control this spring to see how he might fare against MLB hitters. Each of these pitchers is projected for mid-time starts this year.

Among the relievers, there are some true gems. Robert Suarez (E+,K+|INJ,EX,Rg-) (541) has incredible skill but also carries a very large risk cost ($5.50). BABS says to just imagine Edwin Diaz-level skill after ADP 500! A pair of experienced relievers, David Robertson (541) and A.J. Minter (546), both (ER,K+) are right behind Suarez in skills with have significantly lower risk costs. (With the Edwin Diaz injury, odds are Robertson might be inside the top 500 by time you read this.) Finally, while Bryan Abreu (ER,K+|e) (579) may not see many save chances in a deep Astros bullpen, he will certainly help your strikeouts and ratios. And if you play in a league that counts holds, be sure to keep these guys on your shortlist.