2023 Firstbasemen

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience),  Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt), Risk cost. (Some BABS categories have been omitted due to space limitations but appear in the full database and spreadsheet charts.) 

Your top two BABS targets remain Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt, but there are many opportunities for you to leverage the marketplace for undervalued assets later on.

Pete Alonso (pictured), at 20/$28, leads a relatively deep asset group (PW,a) for one boasting such elite skills. It seems odd that Matt Olson would be going nearly two rounds later but recency bias is a powerful force. At ADP 138/$10, Christian Walker offers an eight-round discount and has a Ron Shandler’s 2023 Baseball Forecaster box that concludes: “strong pick behind elites.” BABS expects some positive regression for Rowdy Tellez, who is being drafted ten rounds later and steps into a Full-time role with the Brewers at MLB’s fourth-best site for left-handed HR. Buried at ADP 475/-$3 is Wil Myers, who heads into MLB’s second-best RHH HR environment at Great American Ballpark with dual 1B/OF eligibility. Note his (INJ) liability, however.

BABS has always been down on Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.’s (12/$33) power (p,AV), but she did nail the strong 2022 regression off his 2021 breakout. That only makes the other two bats in this asset group all the more intriguing. You can get Vinnie Pasquantino six rounds later, and new Astro Jose Abreu another round after that.

The (p,a) group offers interesting opportunities. At ADP 123/$11, the often-overlooked CJ Cron seems consistently underrated, yet the Forecaster says: “Bid confidently on a full-season repeat.” Still, he leads a group of similarly-skilled bats. Let your league mates criticize Andrew Vaughn for slower-than-hoped-for development while you match Cron’s asset profile two rounds later at ADP 142/$9. At ADP 155/$8, Anthony Rizzo fits the almost-always-acceptable “boring veteran” mold and is also projected to benefit from defensive shift restrictions this season. An under-the-radar Ryan Mountcastle is two rounds later than Vaughn.

BABS includes two other sneaky selections in the (p,a) group. Offering eligibility at 2B and 3B as well as 1B is Mid-timer Brandon Drury at ADP 195/$6. Drury has a decent shot at Full-time work in Anaheim after his career year shared between CIN and SD. At ADP 197/$6, late-bloomer Joey Meneses adds OF eligibility.

To complete your planning, use the chart above to find 1B-eligible Full-timers with Power or Batting Effectiveness assets and Mid-timers with both Power and Batting Effectiveness assets with minimal liabilities for your draft list in case you run out of Full-time double-asset options. For her part, BABS begins by suggesting Full-time 1B-eligible hitters with at least PW or AV assets Ty France (AV) at 171/$7, Josh Bell (AV,*) at 186/$7, and multi-position eligible 1B/OF Seth Brown (PW|-A) at 205/$6 and 1B/2B Luis Arraez (A+) at 208/$5.

That’s just 20 strong targets—only enough for a handful of teams to get one for 1B and another for CI or UT in a 15-team league. BABS isn’t just whispering sweet nothings when she warns us not to take for granted that 1B is always a deep pool; she repeats her advice to plan appropriately.