2023 Evaluation of 2022’s Surprises

The following players posted a big surprise season after having established a previous baseline expectation that was consistently lower. Given that firm definition, rookies and unestablished players are not included. So, no Julio Rodriguez or Michael Harris II. No Andres Gimenez or Nico Hoerner, whose breakouts were just their first full seasons. And no Jurickson Profar or Christian Walker, who had put up similar numbers in the past.

Turns out that most of the “surprises” last year were of the rookie and first-time-full-time variety. Of the rest, these were probably the most notable that meet the definition:

Dylan Cease (pictured)
Pre-2022: A simple scan of ERA/WHIP over his first three seasons showed an improving player, though it wasn’t until 2021 that there was enough to form a baseline (e,KK).
2022: He still held some Experience risk (e) when he broke out with a superb (E+,KK) performance.
Proj: BABS sees his dominance as sustainable and even improving, but last year’s 2.20 ERA was a bit out over his skiis. She slots him in at (e,K+)

Brandon Drury
Pre-2022: Seven seasons of varying opportunities, topping out over 400 at-bats three times, with his best rating of (p,AV) in 461 AB in 2016.
2022: Career best 28 HRs in 518 AB, but that was only enough to generate a rating of (p,a).
Proj: With no indication of any further upside, either in skills or playing time, he slots back in at (p,a).

Zac Gallen
Pre-2022: His first two seasons showed a consistent, early skills profile of (ER,KK), which led to high expectations in 2021 (ADP 42). His 4.60 ERA was a disappointment, but he maintained his strong (KK) skills.
2022: His ERA/WHIP was not too different from 2019 and 2020, but in twice as many innings, leading to a (E+,KK) rating.
Proj: He’s established his (KK) baseline, but BABS is not sold that the extreme ERA is sustainable. Still, nothing wrong with belonging to the (ER,KK) asset group.

Merrill Kelly
Pre-2022: In three prior seasons, the only time he was able to generate BABS-worthy metrics was in the abbreviated 2020, posting an (ER,k) rating with 2.59/0.99 in 31.3 innings. Beyond that, it’s been 4.00-plus ERAs, reflected in his (|-E) liabilities.
2022: A solid 3.37/1.14 season in 200 innings was notable, but still only worthy of an (e) rating.
Proj:  BABS sees nothing more, offering the same (e) rating for 2023. Lack of dominance will likely cap his upside.

Nathaniel Lowe
Pre-2022: While he had posted (p) power ratings in his first two part-time seasons, 2021 was his first full-time gig and the only skill that popped was some speed (s).
2022: With 27 HR and a .302 BA, he merited a (p,AV) rating.
Proj: Surprisingly, BABS is not yet convinced the power is sustainable, as he lands as just (a). There may be some soft, undeveloped skills that she’s seeing, which means he could regress.

Martin Perez
Pre-2022: It was eight years of mediocrity, or worse. The high-water mark was his 2014 rookie year in which his BABS rating was, well, nothing. From there, it got worse, with consistent (|-E) liabilities for four seasons, only to erode to (|-EK) the next three years. Really, it was just awful.
2022: Out of nowhere, he posted 2.89/1.26 in 196.3 innings, meriting a BABS rating of (ER).
Proj: BABS does not believe. For the upcoming season, his rating has regressed back to (|-K).

Dansby Swanson
Pre-2022: In his six previous full seasons, his ratings have ranged from a low of (|-A) in 2017 to a high of (p,s) in 2020. Hints of speed have come and gone, but 2020 and 2021 showed sustainable power.
2022: Full breakout with 25 HR, 18 SB and .277 BA, but tempered by the fact that he compiled those counting stats over 640 AB. His rating was only (p,a).
Proj: BABS believes (p,a) is sustainable. However, the hints of past speed, his 2022 output and the new environment for stolen bases make him a prime candidate to see a spike in SBs. BABS is wavering on making him a triple threat (p,s,a), but by the time you read this, she may relent.

Framber Valdez
Pre-2022: He opened with a mostly steady four years, despite struggles in 2019, and he settled in with an (ER,k) rating for 2020 and 2021.
2022: A 201.3-IP breakout with 2.83/1.16 generated a rating of (E+,k).
Proj: The underlying skills are pretty stable, all in all. Without a longer track record, that (E+) was going to regress anyway. His current (ER,k) is what he is.

 

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.