2023 BABS Longshot Caucus

For many years when I was at BaseballHQ.com, we conducted what I called our  annual Longshot Caucus. This exercise was slightly different than the standard “bold projections” fare published elsewhere. These were not just random “Kyle Schwarber will hit 50 HR” proclamations. The writers were instructed to toss off the shackles of preconception and consider more “what-ifs” and contingencies. I encouraged them to look at the season as a blank slate.

This exercise often generates a handful of surprise hits. Last year’s Caucus speculated on Willie Adames hitting 30-plus home runs and it nailed Julio Rodriguez’s 28 HR/25 SB output. Our illustrious writing quintet here at BABSBaseball.com now checks in on a bunch of educated speculations for 2023.

Jose Abreu (p,AV) will win the AL MVP award. Abreu ignores BABS’ age liability warning and finds hitting in Minute Maid Park to his liking, posting 40 HRs and 125 RBIs to go along with a .320 BA.

Xander Bogaerts (a) will not provide a ROI. BABS was not sold on Xander Bogaerts while he was in Boston, and now even less so with his new team and a park downgrade. Bogaerts has been reliable health wise, but power is trending down, and his plate skills do not profile as a .300 hitter. He has always taken advantage of the Green Monster dimensions to rack up lots of doubles, but the decline in HRs track with his dismal .149 ISO and a 30 percent hard-hit rate which ranks in the bottom 15 percent. Bogaerts should provide solid defense and hit for a respectable average, but the Padres overpaid, and fantasy owners will be disappointed with their return on investment.

Corbin Burnes (E+,K+) will be the most valuable fantasy player in baseball. The new MLB rules will likely increase overall offense, thanks to more hits and more steals, which will inflate ERAs. So, a high-strikeout frontline hurler — someone who can withstand those effects — is gold, especially one projected for 180-plus innings and a risk cost of $0.

Corbin Carroll (S+,a) will steal 70 bases. Carroll proves Arizona right in giving him that new contract and rides his batting eye, top-rated sprint speed and bigger bases to big numbers on the basepaths.

Jhoan Duran (E+,K+) will save 40 games with 110 strikeouts. Duran will have people saying “Edwin, who?” as he rides his superb skills to the top, cementing his name among the elite closers.

Nick Gordon (p,SB,a) will log significant playing time en route to a 20/20 season. Last year BABS went out on a limb to suggest that Byron Buxton would win the AL Triple-Crown…well that didn’t work out quite so well! This year, she’s taking the under on Buxton’s games played and giving them to his highly-skilled backup. 

Randall Grichuk (p,a) will lead the NL in home runs. While his underlying metrics don’t currently scream Big Power, he does have a history of (P+) ratings in the past. His first year in Coors was underwhelming, but that was mostly because of some launch angle issues, which were not evident in previous years. If he gets his fly ball rate back up closer 45 percent (and has recovered from hernia surgery), he could launch 40 or more in that thin air environment.

The Guardians will lead the Majors in Stolen Bases. In 2022, the Guardians were next to last in HRs but ranked second in total hits. meaning oodles of runners on base. Now check out these BABS speed ratings: Amed Rosario (S+), Miles Straw (S+), Andres Gimenez (SB), Steven Kwan (SB): together, they teamed to steal 80 bases. Jose Ramirez rates as an (s) but has averaged 24 steals since 2019 as he continues to produce beyond his skills rating. And the new kids love to run. Will Brennan and Bo Naylor (s) each pilfered 20 bags last year in the minors, while UTs Tyler Freeman (s) and Richie Palacios (SB) can also fly. Even Roman Quinn, a former BABS (S+) talent, has impressed in camp, with 4 steals so far this spring. There is no speed limit in Cleveland.

Nico Hoerner (SB,AV) will steal 30+ bases, score 100 runs out of the leadoff spot in Chicago. He has always been gifted getting the bat to the ball (career low 11% K rate in 2022). His ability to get on base is actually better than last season (5.4% walk rate) indicated. Some positive regression there will only increase Nico’s chances at steals and runs scored. 

Clay Holmes (E+,KK,sv) will lead the AL in Saves. Holmes’ strong second half of 2021 led to the closer role in 2022, and he excelled except for a late blip due to back spasms. Ground ball rates for 2021 and 2022 of 69% and 76%, average fastball velocities of 96 mph and 97 mph. A conventional closer on a potential 100-win team with those credentials should be outstanding.

Raisel Iglesias (ER,K+,SV) will lead the majors in saves. Iglesias is the alpha closer in an era when a great many teams lean into matchups and timeshares. The Braves figure to be very good once again, with top-shelf starting pitchers and solid bridge options. One of the more reliable options when it comes to taking the ball year-in, year-out, Raisel is in line for 40+ saves. 

Aaron Judge (P+,AV) will hit 55 home runs. Pretty much every forecaster is projecting Judge (pictured) to follow up his historic 62-HR season with a number in the 40s. But, of the eight other players who’ve hit 60-plus HRs in major league history, half of them followed up with another 50-plus season. Granted, all of them were alleged juicers, except Babe Ruth, but the new MLB rules have thrust us into historic times, which opens up the possibility for bigger numbers.

Max Kepler repeats his 2019 breakout season. A 36-HR, .252 batting average seems impossible for a player currently with an ADP outside the top 400. But Kepler was one of the most shifted against players last year — 90% of the time. With a strong 83% contact rate, his BA should certainly rebound past the sub-.230s he’s posted the last three years. As for the power, well, once you display a skill, you own it.

Jeremy Pena (SB) will end the season outside of the top 20 shortsops. Yes, the World Series hero finds difficulties during his second full season. The low walk rate and ~.300 OBA limit his stolen base and run totals. Add a low batting average floor, and the recipe for cratered value is complete. 

Three of our analysts targeted the following player independently. Their analyses are combined here: 

Cal Raleigh (P+,a) will hit 40+ home runs. The raw power skills are there. On Statcast, he showed a barrel rate in the 96th percentile, a maximum exit velocity in the 94th percentile, and an average exit velocity in the 84th percentile. He had a 56 percent flyball rate, over 60 percent of his big-league hits have gone for extra bases, and as a switch-hitter he has produced effectively from both sides of the plate. He hit 17 HR in 231 second half plate appearances, which prorates to 37 in 500 PA. He did have 445 PA between the majors and minors last year, and as long as he’s good after off-season hand surgery, 500 PA could be attainable. He had a .545 Slg through his first 23 PA this spring.

The Red Sox will win 90 games behind their pitching staff. Last year, Boston finished with a frustrating 78-84 record and had a team ERA of 4.53, ranking them in the bottom six in baseball, behind such teams as Detroit and Oakland. It was so bad that Boston needed 60 starts combined from Rich Hill, John Winckowski, Kutter Crawford and Conner Seabold, followed by relievers who were worse. But this year’s staff is blooming with pitching assets. Chris Sale (ER,K+) looks healthy again, joining Garrett Whitlock (e,KK), Tanner Houck (e,KK) and Brayan Bello (e,k) as SPs, with James Paxton (e,K+) not far behind. A rebuilt pen is led by Kenley Jansen (e,K+,sv-), Chris Martin (ER,KK), John Schreiber (ER, KK), Zack Kelly (ER,KK) and Joely Rodriguez (e,KK). That is a bouquet of ten dual-asset arms! Add in veterans Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber, tossed with a new balanced schedule, and 2023 could be wicked in Beantown.

Corey Seager (PW,A+) will win the AL batting title. In 2020 and 2021, Seager hit .307 and .306, respectively, for the Dodgers, earning him a $325M contract from Texas. In his first season there, Seager was healthy, hit a career high 33 HRs, but his batting average dipped to .245. Statcast said his expected average and slugging were virtually league best, and analysts blamed it on BABIP misfortune, as many line drives hit into the shift became outs. BABS says the skills remain elite, and with the shift constraints now removed, Seager is primed for a huge BA rebound.

Christian Walker (PW,a) will hit 40+ bombs and bat .280. In the process of hitting 36 HR in 2022, Walker did not sell out. In fact, his K rate (19.6%) was a career best. Some bad luck (.248 BABIP) was largely responsible for the .242 batting average. Christian’s 667 plate appearances certainly helped the counting stats. Prior to 2022 he wasn’t a full-time player. Now he is. The $0 risk assessment proves it.