2023 Asset Group Analysis – (PW,a)
by Doug Gruber
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. But that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Lg | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Sk- | Inj | Ex | Nw | Ag | Pk- | Rg | Risk | |
| 44 | $ 20 | Olson,Matt | 1 | N | ATL | F | PW | a | * | 0 | |||||||||||
| 51 | $ 19 | Smith,Will D. | CD | N | LAD | M | PW | a | * | 0 | |||||||||||
| 64 | $ 17 | Perez,Salvador | CD | A | KCR | F | PW | a | – | inj- | 1.00 | ||||||||||
| 72 | $ 16 | Hernandez,Teoscar | O | A | SEA | F | PW | a | Nw | Pk- | 0.50 | ||||||||||
| 94 | $ 13 | Contreras,Willson | CD | N | STL | F | PW | a | Rg+ | inj- | Nw | 1.25 | |||||||||
| 121 | $ 11 | Hoskins,Rhys | 1 | N | PHI | F | PW | a | * | 0 | |||||||||||
| 126 | $ 10 | Ward,Taylor | O | A | LAA | F | PW | a | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 131 | $ 10 | Santander,Anthony | OD | A | BAL | F | PW | a | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 135 | $9 | Walker,Christian | 1 | N | ARZ | F | PW | a | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 147 | $9 | Renfroe,Hunter | O | A | LAA | F | PW | a | inj- | Nw | 1.25 | ||||||||||
| 166 | $7 | Lowe,Brandon | 2 | A | TBR | F | PW | a | Rg+ | INJ | 3.00 | ||||||||||
| 171 | $7 | Tellez,Rowdy | 1 | N | MLW | F | PW | a | Rg+ | 0 | |||||||||||
| 182 | $7 | Jansen,Danny | C | A | TOR | P | PW | a | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||||
| 218 | $5 | Martinez,J.D. | D | N | LAD | F | PW | a | Nw | 0.25 | |||||||||||
| 239 | $4 | Pederson,Joc | O | N | SFG | M | PW | a | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 380 | $0 | Myers,Wil | O1 | N | CIN | F | PW | a | Pk+ | INJ | Nw | 3.25 | |||||||||
| 485 | $ (2) | Garver,Mitch | D | A | TEX | P | PW | a | * | Rg+ | INJ | 3.00 | |||||||||
| 517 | $ (3) | Belt,Brandon | 1 | A | TOR | M | PW | a | * | Pk+ | INJ | Nw | 3.25 | ||||||||
| 608 | $ (4) | Longoria,Evan | 3 | N | ARZ | P | PW | a | INJ | Nw | Ag | 3.50 |
This group is a long collection of hitters that you will want to highlight on your draft lists. With expected stats in the 30 HR range and a BA in the .250s and .260s, BABS places fair value for this class near Round 7 or so. Hence the appeal, as more than 2/3 of this group falls below that price level. More attractive is the number of full-time players who have zeros in their risk column, which is rare for players obtained after pick one hundred. Let’s look closer at those.
A trio of 1Bmen who combined for 101 home runs are available between picks 120 and 170. No power outage here! And no liabilities! Christian Walker (pictured) had a career-high 36 home runs paired with a career low 20 percent strikeout rate. Rowdy Tellez also had a personal best with 35 homers and is projected to be one of the top beneficiaries of the new shift rules. Rhys Hoskins hit 30 home runs and then a half dozen more in the post-season.
Three outfielders were not far behind, with 85 home runs between them. Hunter Renfroe has averaged more than 30 over his last four full seasons, and improved batting skills have pushed his BA over .250 in the last two campaigns. Taylor Ward hit .283 with 23 HRs, and might have been more had he not suffered a clash with an outfield wall. Anthony Santander is coming off a 33-HR season along with increases in contact rate and barrel rates. All are available in the 9-10 round range.
Brandon Lowe mashed 39 homers in 2021 but suffered through an injury-filled season last season. A fifth round pick a year ago, Lowe can now be had almost 100 picks later.
The most profitable full-time options are two sluggers who have new homes. J.D. Martinez had a great first half before cooling down considerably after his All-Star game appearance. He now lands as the DH in that potent Dodgers lineup. Wil Myers moves to Great American Ballpark where everyone loves to hit. Martinez can be obtained in round 15, Myers a few rounds later. Circle both on your cheat sheet.
Mid-timers Joc Peterson and Brandon Belt also have eye-catching price tags. Pederson clubbed 23 HRs in only 433 PAs last season, to go with a .274 BA. In 2021, Belt also hit .274 and went deep 29 times in only 381 appearances, and now gets a park upgrade. Remember…draft skills, especially when the price is only a dollar or two.
And the part-time players in this group are intriguing, even with their significant injury concerns. Danny Jansen only played in 72 games a year ago, but when he did, he put on a power display as supported by an ISO of .256, and an .855 OPS. Jansen makes for a bargain alternative for classmates Will Smith, Salvatore Perez, and Wil Contreras.
Mitch Garver is even further discounted, not surprising given four consecutive years with extensive IL days. But he has always hit for power and could earn catcher eligibility soon enough to become a valuable C2 at this price. Finally, Evan Longoria has hit 27 home runs with a solid batting average over his last 520 ABs. Unfortunately, those numbers span two seasons due to various ailments. But his skills are still present, and his price is a reserve round dart to see what develops as he moves to Arizona.
NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.