2023 Asset Group Analysis – (ER,k)

(Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire),

by Greg Fishwick

Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. But that’s not always the case. Here is where we can uncover opportunities to build profit into our rosters.

ADP R$ PITCHER Pos Lg Tm PT Er K Sv Pk Rg Sk- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg Cost
29 $25 Alcantara,Sandy SP N MIA F ER k Rg- 0.50
56 $18 Urias,Julio SP N LAD F ER k Rg- 0.50
87 $14 Valdez,Framber SP A HOU F ER k 0
106 $12 Kirby,George SP A SEA M ER k EX 2.00
117 $11 Webb,Logan SP N SFG F ER k 0
169 $7 Montgomery,Jordan SP N STL M ER k 0
243 $4 Cobb,Alex SP N SFG M ER k INJ 3.00

The (ER,k) Asset Group is a low-risk pool to fish in and boasts 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (pictured) as the headliner. We could hardly ask for a better example of how BABS’ Asset Groups uncover bargains among players with comparable skill sets than to have a Cy Young Award winner anchoring the comparison group.

No one but Alcantara has eclipsed 400 IP and 400 K over the past two seasons combined, and BABS isn’t saying you shouldn’t go after him. But while Miami appears to have improved its team this off-season, they’re still only better than the Nats in the NL East, so 14 W may be harder to come by in 2023. Alcantara’s expected negative regression comes from an ERA/xERA gap of 2.28/3.18 and a career-low H%/career-high S% of 27/80.

Julio Urias has an identical profile and goes at the end of Round 4. He is a year younger than Alcantara and neither has been on the IL for an arm-related reason in the past three years. Over the past two seasons, Urias has averaged 180 IP, 210 K, and a 2.72 ERA, with a 0.99 WHIP—and his Dodgers have given him nine more Wins than Alcantara’s Marlins have given him. Seems like two rounds of potential profit here.

Neither of the remaining two Full-time starters have any marks on the liability side. Framber Valdez is there for you in Round 6 and is now the ace of the reigning World Series Champion Astros, coming off a season featuring 25 consecutive quality starts. Logan Webb has 340 IP with 321 K and 26 W over the past two seasons for a feisty ‘Frisco team, with ERAs of 3.03 and 2.90 and WHIPs of 1.11 and 1.16. You can wait until Round 8 for him. With a 180-plus IP expectation, he might be the most profitable pick in the group.

The remaining three pitchers won’t provide as many innings, even with comparable skills profiles. Jordan Montgomery stands out as the only one with no liabilities. He has emerged over the past two seasons, with 335 IP and 320 K, lowering his ERA from 3.83 in 2021 to 3.48 in 2022 and his WHIP from 1.28 in 2021 to 1.09 in 2022. He’s available in Round 12.

George Kirby had an impressive rookie year (130 IP/133 K, 3.39 ERA/1.21 WHIP), which was enough to convince the marketplace that he’s for real. But the $2 hit to your risk budget is a reminder that 130 innings is not enough to draw conclusions about his baseline. Note that Ron Shandler’s 2023 Baseball Forecaster does say, “His polished, strike-throwing approach was effective, especially as he increased his groundball rate in 2nd half. It makes this a high-floor profile, and there’s plenty of room for growth, too. UP: sub-3.00 ERA.” Plus, he’ll pitch half his games at T-Mobile Park, the only AL stadium that suppresses Runs (-11%). That is plenty of reason for the market’s exuberance, but it doesn’t the negate the risk. If you’re ready to jump on board at his Round 10 asking price, make sure your risk budget can plan around the $2 hit.

With his $3 Injury risk cost, Alex Cobb is the lone (ER,k) longshot. The 35-year-old held together for 150 IP in 2022, his most since 152 IP in 2018. Among starters with 150+ IP in 2022, only Framber Valdez had a higher ground ball rate than Cobb’s 62%, and Cobb’s 2021-2022 off-season at Driveline netted two ticks of increased velocity. In Round 17, Cobb could yield a profit for you.

NOTES: The ratings in the above analysis may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.