2023 Asset Group Analysis – (ER,K+)

This is a highly-skilled group — significant pitching effectiveness and extreme strikeout ability — composed of potential No. 1 starters to anchor your staff. While BABS prospects for assets that are undervalued in the marketplace, this is one group where your risk tolerance may force a deeper investment.

Gerrit Cole (pictured) is currently going early in the 2nd round, but an argument can be made that he merits a first round pick, if only because he is one of the few reliable pitchers in this elite class. Only Kevin Gausman shares Cole’s 180-plus IP expectation and $0 risk cost, making him the pitcher with the most built-in profit in Round 5.

Carlos Rodon is going a round earlier, despite the risk of his move to Yankee Stadium, a venue often problematic for other pitchers. However, Rodon has fared well there historically. Still, take Gausman and the innings a round later. Cristian Javier is also a lower risk option at the end of Round 5, though beware the regression risk.

From here, health concerns start playing more of a role in your risk assessment. In fact, there is only one other pitcher who won’t make a major dent in your risk budget. Blake Snell can be had almost 10 rounds into your draft, for about a third the cost of Cole. Coming off a minor injury liability (groin, not arm), he could offer big profit, pitching on a potential playoff team laden with hitting and fielding skills.

Of the rest, be careful. Tyler Glasnow has never pitched more than 120 innings in his career; rostering hismajor injury risk and potential for regression will cost your budget $3.50. If you are going to take on that much risk, why not wait a couple of rounds for Hunter Greene ($3.00).  Throwing more 100 mph pitches than anyone in history, he does carry the Experience liability, but his 2nd half numbers last year were downright scary (in a good way).

As much as Nick Lodolo may be the only reason to watch Reds games this year, his $5 risk cost is probably enough to change the channel.

Or perhaps wait until the 12th round for Chris Sale. Yes, he was coming back from 2020 TJS before he was sidelined last year for a stress fracture in the rib cage and surgery on his right wrist (Note to self: he IS a LHP), but… finding someone in those middle rounds who has struck out over 300 batters in a season has to be worth some risk. $3 worth, to be exact.

The last draftable arm in this group, Andrew Heaney, has shown these elite skills in very, very small samples. Can you trust the 3.10 ERA/ 1.09 WHIP he posted in only 73 IP last year? A 15th round or single digit bid, along with $3.25 in risk cost might be tempting for the end game. After all, Gerrit Cole owns comparable skills metrics.